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How the Crash Will Reshape America

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How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby Duende » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 00:27:35

I came across an interesting article in The Atlantic Monthly the other day on the economic downturn and its possible effect on American cities. It was written by Richard Florida, author of the bestseller "The Rise of the Creative Class".

The gist of the article is that some economists and urban thinkers are advancing a theory that this recession will result in much more profound change than any recession in memory, and that, unlike in the Great Depression, the pain won't be universally shared. This “Great Disruption” will rapidly create a new geography of winners and tragic losers.

“If there is one constant in the history of capitalist development, it is the ever-more-intensive use of space. Today, we need to begin making smarter use of both our urban spaces and the suburban rings that surround them — packing in more people, more affordably, while at the same time improving their quality of life. That means liberal zoning and building codes within cities to allow more residential development, more mixed-use development in suburbs and cities alike.”

"Some cities and regions will eventually spring back stronger than before. Others may never come back at all. As the crisis deepens, it will permanently and profoundly alter the country's economic landscape. I believe it marks the end of a chapter in American economic history, and indeed, the end of a whole way of life."

"Because America’s tendency to over-consume and under-save has been intimately intertwined with our postwar spatial fix — that is, with housing and suburbanization — the shape of the economy has been badly distorted, from where people live, to where investment flows, to what’s produced. Unless we make fundamental policy changes to eliminate these distortions, the economy is likely to face worsening handicaps in the years ahead.”

"Just as important, though, we need to make elite cities and key mega-regions more attractive and affordable for all of America’s classes, not just the upper crust."

I'm curious how some of you believe the new reality will affect American cities.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903/meltdown-geography
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 00:35:17

Duende wrote:I came across an interesting article in The Atlantic Monthly the other day on the economic downturn and its possible effect on American cities. It was written by Richard Florida, author of the bestseller "The Rise of the Creative Class".

The gist of the article is that some economists and urban thinkers are advancing a theory that this recession will result in much more profound change than any recession in memory, and that, unlike in the Great Depression, the pain won't be universally shared. This “Great Disruption” will rapidly create a new geography of winners and tragic losers.
“If there is one constant in the history of capitalist development, it is the ever-more-intensive use of space. Today, we need to begin making smarter use of both our urban spaces and the suburban rings that surround them — packing in more people, more affordably, while at the same time improving their quality of life. That means liberal zoning and building codes within cities to allow more residential development, more mixed-use development in suburbs and cities alike.”

"Some cities and regions will eventually spring back stronger than before. Others may never come back at all. As the crisis deepens, it will permanently and profoundly alter the country's economic landscape. I believe it marks the end of a chapter in American economic history, and indeed, the end of a whole way of life."

"Because America’s tendency to over-consume and under-save has been intimately intertwined with our postwar spatial fix — that is, with housing and suburbanization — the shape of the economy has been badly distorted, from where people live, to where investment flows, to what’s produced. Unless we make fundamental policy changes to eliminate these distortions, the economy is likely to face worsening handicaps in the years ahead.”

"Just as important, though, we need to make elite cities and key mega-regions more attractive and affordable for all of America’s classes, not just the upper crust."

It’s long, but a pretty interesting read:

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903/meltdown-geography


While the ideas are interesting I am gathering that, on a global scale
this means disaster for the poor.

The most creative people tend also to be humanist, compassionate, sensitives.

Perhaps the creatives will be too broken hearted to create anything?
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby Duende » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 00:42:26

SeaGypsy wrote:
While the ideas are interesting I am gathering that, on a global scale this means disaster for the poor.

Well - that's probably true enough. But I'm wondering if the strong cities (Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Boston) will continue to get stronger and the weak cities (Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland, etc.) will continue to lose population and job opportunities. I think the present and indefinite future will be an interesting study in urban dynamics.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 00:50:57

Duende wrote:SeaGypsy wrote:
While the ideas are interesting I am gathering that, on a global scale this means disaster for the poor.

Well - that's probably true enough. But I'm wondering if the strong cities (Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Boston) will continue to get stronger and the weak cities (Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland, etc.) will continue to lose population and job opportunities. I think the present and indefinite future will be an interesting study in urban dynamics.


Will these creative centers become walled cities with starving minions at the gates? That's what I suspect. Or will they become 'Asianified' with mass squatter areas on the fringes?
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby lawnchair » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 00:51:42

One thing seems likely to me. And that is a further exodus of the elderly from the cities.

My grandmother stayed to her end in her home in Hudson County, New Jersey. Paying more in property tax on a modest paid-off (built by grandpa) home than I pay in mortgage/tax/insurance on a much larger place in the midwest. Sweet and romantic. But only barely doable.

Out here in the small-town plains, I'm seeing more and more early-elderly 'refugees'. Step back from the dream of a beach house, or even a nice retirement village, and, hmmm, with a Kansas house for $40k (with property tax under $500 a year), a social security check and whatever savings you've still got can stretch a whole, whole lot further.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 01:13:20

CyberX,
The USA must revise the time limit for unemployment.
Do like Australia: as long as you can prove you are actively seeking work you qualify.
Anything less than this will result in a revolt over the next couple of years.
While this may run against your grain to some extent; it seems absolutely essential.
You deserve to keep your property. Even if it's only worth peanuts, you have earned it. If by no fault of your own, you (&millions like you) will end up in funded refuges anyway; unless your friends and family can take you in.
Allowing people some dignity should be a much higher priority at the grass roots than at the top.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby oxj » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 09:02:15

We used to have the "as long as you are actively seeking a job then you get unemployment" clause. It ended because, supposedly, too many people were abusing the system.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby Fishman » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 09:13:48

SG
I wish it were so easy. Where will the money come from? Go read a book or two about the Great Depression. Times will get much tougher as either the dollar collapses or we tighten up on expenses as a nation. Not saying that cutting unemployment checks is the ideal but we will have to think in a different manner. The present paradigm of both business and social welfare will change
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby Fishman » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 09:13:49

The ironclad rule of economics, if you subsidize it, you increase it.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby Duende » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 11:20:54

Ok, so getting back to the OP -

How does all of this relate to the future of our cities?
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 11:51:56

Fishman wrote:SG
I wish it were so easy. Where will the money come from? Go read a book or two about the Great Depression. Times will get much tougher as either the dollar collapses or we tighten up on expenses as a nation. Not saying that cutting unemployment checks is the ideal but we will have to think in a different manner. The present paradigm of both business and social welfare will change


Easy, tax the rich.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby Fishman » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 12:52:47

SG
Excellent choice, for a very short period. They create job, jobs will go elsewhere. They have money, they go elsewhere. Never kill the goose that lays your golden eggs.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby DJSNOLA » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 17:15:02

One way or another we will have to downsize our lifestyles, but that doesnt mean it will nescessarily be a lesser quality of life!
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 17:41:42

SeaGypsy wrote:
Fishman wrote:SG
I wish it were so easy. Where will the money come from? Go read a book or two about the Great Depression. Times will get much tougher as either the dollar collapses or we tighten up on expenses as a nation. Not saying that cutting unemployment checks is the ideal but we will have to think in a different manner. The present paradigm of both business and social welfare will change


Easy, tax the rich.


I'm sure that will work ! LOL
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby bikerguy » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 18:15:59

Well I know misfits that got on SSI disability here in Michigan and they are much better off then my current situation. Free madicare, food debit card, etc. I'm due to run out of unemployment in April, the same month I'm turning 54. I haven't been able to find a job even with my technical backround in upper Mi., Minn. or Wis.. Credit card still at $8500, but my vehicles are paid off. Getting raedy to live in my truck, I guess by this summer.
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Re: How the Crash Will Reshape America

Unread postby Pops » Wed 04 Mar 2009, 19:51:23

I believe we in America have been supported by slaves for our entire existence.

At first it was the slave of the virgin land, then of the human slaves, then of cheap energy slaves, then paid human slaves, then cheaper energy slaves and lastly capital slaves.


I think we will either learn to slave for ourselves or some will.
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