misterno wrote:I can not imagine what will happen to oil prices when the global economy picks up just a little bit.
Buckle up, we are on a rough ride, fellas.
mos6507 wrote:KSA's big problem at present isn't peak oil, it's an oil glut causing oil prices below the minimum they need to maintain their economy. Any slow creep upwards in oil prices is largely due to voluntary production cuts by OPEC and elsewhere in order to reach that minimum support level and should not be construed as the opening stages of another superspike. Although some people are driving more or going back to SUVs, in aggregate, oil demand remains down and all you need to do is hit up google news to verify that. We will get to peak oil doom, just not right now. Right now if you still have a job I suggest you all eat, drink and be merry.
Schmuto wrote:It's a very simple relationship.
OIL = GDP.
Schmuto wrote:The news over the last few days has been distinctly bearish for oil.
U.S. stockpiles are at 16 year highs. GDP just came in at -6% - worst in 27 years.
And what is oil doing on the front part of the new contract? We're up to 54. Wow.
Hang on to your seats. Dr. Schmuto's gut is telling him that we just got on a ride, and we're not going to be getting off any time soon. And me gut has been damn accurate over the last 10 years.
Schmuto wrote:It's a very simple relationship.
OIL = GDP.
Revi wrote:There's a little glut right now, but no capacity to draw on to get prices down.
Schmuto wrote:
It's a very simple relationship.
OIL = GDP.
"The still-poor demand picture may once again become a dominant theme if an equities setback dampens the hopes of oil bulls," said Brenda Sullivan, an analyst at Sucden Financial Research.
mos6507 wrote:KSA's big problem at present isn't peak oil, it's an oil glut causing oil prices below the minimum they need to maintain their economy.
mos6507 wrote:Any slow creep upwards in oil prices is largely due to voluntary production cuts by OPEC and elsewhere in order to reach that minimum support level and should not be construed as the opening stages of another superspike.
mos6507 wrote:Although some people are driving more or going back to SUVs, in aggregate, oil demand remains down and all you need to do is hit up google news to verify that. We will get to peak oil doom, just not right now. Right now if you still have a job I suggest you all eat, drink and be merry.
JohnDenver wrote:
Simple and wrong.
. . .
In any case, the evidence clearly shows that OIL ≠ GDP.
TheDude wrote:Schmuto wrote:It's a very simple relationship.
OIL = GDP.
Sorta, kinda.
mos6507 wrote:Revi wrote:There's a little glut right now, but no capacity to draw on to get prices down.
There would be no capacity to get prices down if demand returned to 2008 peak levels. I don't think there is any desire on the part of oil producers to get oil prices lower than they are now. They actually want to raise them back up to at least $60. The anxiety we used to have about $60+ oil turned out to be largely irrational. The economy is fully capable of functioning unhindered with oil in the $60-$80 range.
mos6507 wrote:"The still-poor demand picture may once again become a dominant theme if an equities setback dampens the hopes of oil bulls," said Brenda Sullivan, an analyst at Sucden Financial Research.
Really, now is not the time to panic on every slight movement in oil prices. Wait until we go over $75/bbl or something to call a new spike, and even then, be wary of speculation (since a significant chunk of oil at $147/bbl WAS due to speculation rather than geology).
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