[treez]

Hello,

The readily extractable oil, coal and gas (‘hydro-carbons’ or ‘fossil fuels’) on our planet are nearly completely exhausted.

When oil has gone, our wealth will go with it.

Deep lying hydrocarbon deposits remain. However, the extraction of this hydrocarbon is futile, since the energy expended in its extraction would simply be greater than the energy given up by the hydrocarbon, in doing useful work. (eg powering electric generators and/or combustion engines etc etc)

Since solar and wind are intermittent, they cannot alone fulfill our energy needs.
It is also worth noting that solar and wind only supply electrical energy, they cannot be used to power internal combustion engines (unlike oil).

To take benefit of solar and wind, the electricity must be put into an electricity grid network, or stored in batteries.

Nuclear energy is the ONLY alternative that we have to oil.

However, when fossil fuels are gone, Nuclear Power won’t be able to power our society. It is simply too inflexible. The fact is that there are so many essential processes that require oil.

-Oil has the great advantage that it is easily transport-able and can be used to power internal combustion engines, and can produce electricity anywhere, (eg in off-grid locations) since it can be used to power remote , mobile electricity generators. Oil also gives us a large amount of energy for a relatively small volume of oil.

Think of a construction site where large buildings/structures/bridges/mine-shafts/tunnels are being constructed………..
…Such sites require large earth moving machines, diggers, mobile cranes & hoists, pile drivers, earth drills….not to mention that the building materials need to be transported to the construction site
…..how will these things be powered by nuclear power?……………they won’t….its simply not possible on a scale big enough for the requirements of our vastly populated earth.

We might try to use battery powered diggers and cranes etc…………but there simply isn’t enough of the chemicals which are needed to make batteries to be found on earth to allow us to produce enough batteries for our needs.

Not only that, -but how are we going to mine these rare battery chemicals when there is no oil to power the digging machinery in the mines?
Remember, the chemicals we need to make batteries aren’t conveniently located in parts of the earth where the electricity grid exists to power digging machines………….even if it did……are we really saying that our digging apparatus would be practical with a huge electricity cable connected up to it?

Also, the energy that’s needed to manufacture a battery and keep charging it back up as it discharges is enormous….something like 300 times the energy that the battery ever gives to us in its lifetime doing useful work.

Then there’s transportation (cars, lorries, boats and aeroplanes)
……Will we be able to power all these by battery?

The answer is no…….. As stated above , there simply isn’t enough battery chemical in the earth to make enough batteries for our needs……….even if there was, we would need oil to help us to mine it (dig it out).

Hydrogen has been put forward as an alternative to gasoline in cars. But a fuel supply lorry transporting hydrogen from west side of the USA to the east would have to use all its stored hydrogen in doing the journey….none being left to supply there-after.

Take a country like UK just for example. The UK hasn’t got enough arable land to be able to provide food for its population. We rely on vast transportation to bring foodstuffs in from abroad. –This will no longer be possible when oil has run out.

In the agricultural world, its known that agriculture is the act of using land to turn fossil-fuel into food, -such is its all-round, complete dependency on fossil fuel.
When oil runs out, we won’t be able to get enough food to eat.

Think of a huge wind farm. Unfortunately those huge turbines impose a significant mechanical stress on the bearings and the wind-turbine eventually needs replacement of large parts. –How will this maintenance be done when we have no oil?………..with extreme difficulty……….cranes would be needed to hoist the heavy equipment up to the top of the tower, and its already been stated that powering all the cranes that we need with batteries is impracticable.

Another point is how will wars be fought when we have no oil?

Tanks, Jets, Battleships, Troop transporters need oil to power them…….Batteries just won’t be practical in a war for powering tanks and the like……what sort of battery would be needed to run a tank?………..it would be enormous, would be far too heavy, and when it ran out , we likely wouldn’t be able to get the tank back to a re-charging place.

Life anything like we know it without oil is simply not possible. There will be a severe drop in wealth all round. That’s why the world’s navys have been towing mile long sonar arrays around the world’s oceans for the last twenty years…-to see if there are any oil-likely sites in sub-sea locations………..however, there have not been reports of significant findings.

[TheAntiDoomer]

Is it just me or does this seem weirdly similiar to the rants of Clifford J. Wirth"less"?

[Maddog78]

Nice rant, a little wacky but anyway....................

Welcome to the board!?

[efarmer]

I think you have hit on the main points of why petroleum is
such an uncanny substance and that there are not really substitutes
in scale for it but rather a bunch of workarounds and fall back postures.

I am not sure that towed sonar arrays replace geophones or
accelerometers on the seabed for exploration but the point is
taken that the military in addition to protecting oil sources
and delivery systems will bust it's hump to locate them as well.

You are in a forum where many of the persistent populace agree
with the points you have made, understand that life is about to
get much more low energy and uncertain, and are now engaged
in debates like:

1. Do something or embrace oblivion.

2. Scapegoat past groups or individuals, current groups or individuals,
everyone, or just treat it like a random natural disaster.

3. Figure out investment exploits from the phenomena and heap up
money or goodies as a hedge against future conditions, get to
a place where you can live as a resourceful peasant, or many
other imaginative or futile scenarios that richly adorn this tapestry
of personal expression.

Things are going to change in a big way. It will affect huge swaths of
people and they will have choices of banding together to pursue
strategies, going tribal, going solo, or none of the above.

Under the mostly gentle hands of our moderators, we knock these things
around as well as making use of off topic but members only forums for
the entire gamut (almost) of themes. If you are a elfin fairy you will be
roasted with harsh reality and pelted with sour grapes, if you are a
grizzled doomer, you will be fed literary prunes and be scolded by
the cheerful, well at least busy, busy bees of planning and conservation.

But direct your attention at this time to the large and gleaming fan
in the center of the room that is all plugged in and ready to rumble.
When the unmentionable substance hits that fan in sufficient strength,
the cosmic switch will throw and it will begin to rotate and by and by,
the winners and losers of this perverse game of roulette will become
obvious.

Welcome, you got here just in time for the party.

[TreeFarmer]

treez must be a troll. Why else would someone come to a site with several years of history and tens of thoushands of posts and think he can "educate" everyone wth one post?

If this is a new person it seems like they did not read anything, just started with a big post. I will give the person one kudo, you understand the crux of the matter.

TF

[AAA]

treez must be a troll. Why else would someone come to a site with several years of history and tens of thoushands of posts and think he can "educate" everyone wth one post?

Agree 100%

[Tanada]

Cute rant, too bad you have some of your facts so far off base though. Those large cranes and excavators, not to mention those tunnel boring machines already run on Electricity, via cable connection, batteries are not required. As for the Navy, ships from 50 tons to 100,000 tons have been or are being run on nuclear power today. Thirdly, if you accept the energy penalty (you lose energy in transformation steps) you can convert CO2 and H2O and electricity into Methanol or Gasoline or Diesel Fuel or even lubricating oil. Its expensive as hell so right now we would rather drill very deep wells in the GOM and the Arctic basin, but it is known technology, no breakthroughs required.

[threadbear]

For Heaven's sakes, cut him/her some slack. Welcome Treez

[Plantagenet]

the world’s navys have been towing mile long sonar arrays around the world’s oceans for the last twenty years…-to see if there are any oil-likely sites in sub-sea locations………..however, there have not been reports of significant findings.

The US Navy is not in the business of doing oil exploration.

[Last_Laff]

Be careful, the experts will bomb you with homework.

Kudos.

[sihmei]

Oil is the most energetic, dense, verstalile and abundant energy source ever discovered. It took many millions of years to form and we will use it up almost completely in 150 years or so. It was a one off bonanza. As Fred Hoyle said, if we were ever to get to the stars, it will be a one shot affair. Now with oil and other fossil fuels all but gone, it's game over. Perhaps that's why we've not contacted aliens (if they exist), they did the same thing we did.

Anyone thinking any combination of other energy sources can replace oil and fossil fuels is seriously in cloud cuckoo land. When fossil fuels go, it's back to the Iron Age for us (if we're lucky).

[SeaGypsy]

Read this:

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/

Then this:

http://www.dieoff.org/

Then if you still have something to say; go for it.

[treez]

Tanada:

"Those large cranes and excavators, not to mention those tunnel boring machines already run on Electricity, via cable connection"

.........OK, but the 3 phase electricity grid, especially the high voltage part, is scarce, and would not likely be located where you wanted to drill/dig/lift/hoist etc.

Even where those pylons do exist......you need seriously expensive switchgear etc and transformer sub-stations to get the electricity to the voltage level that's needed.

SeaGypsy:Thanks, I'll take a look

[cephalotus]

Not only that, -but how are we going to mine these rare battery chemicals when there is no oil to power the digging machinery in the mines?

where are the rare materials in a LiFePO4 battery? Or in those NaNiCL2 batteries? That's not laboratory stuff but you can buy these things now.

Also, the energy that’s needed to manufacture a battery and keep charging it back up as it discharges is enormous….something like 300 times the energy that the battery ever gives to us in its lifetime doing useful work.

source?

The answer is no…….. As stated above , there simply isn’t enough battery chemical in the earth to make enough batteries for our needs…

why not?

…….even if there was, we would need oil to help us to mine it (dig it out).

no.

and btw, you can make ethanol out of electricity, water and CO2 (a bit simplified)
...

In my humble opinion only about 1% of our oil is really needed, the rest is quite easily replaceable with current technology until 2030-2050.
The small rest is available or can be made from coal, natural gas or biomass until newer technologies are available.

[ralfy]

Check out Ch. 17 of Martenson's "Crash Course".

Also, in reference to "newer technologies" I prefer "if" to "until".

[treez]

cephalotus:

you can make ethanol out of electricity, water and CO2 (a bit simplified)

I am sorry but this is of no use....to get enough CO2....you have to collect it from the chimneys of fossil fuel burning power stations....and fossil fuels are running out.

Tanada:

As for the Navy, ships from 50 tons to 100,000 tons have been or are being run on nuclear power today.

we can afford a few naval vessels to be nuclear........but no more i'm afraid........it is phenominally expensive.......a merchant fleet owner would never be able to repay the cost of getting a nuclear fleet by just shipping products round the world.

SeaGypsy:

I read much of your "wolf at door" stuff.

-I thought you were over-optimistic about life living in the countryside in small farming communities after fossil fuel is gone....

Take UK, much arable land and woodland is gone now........in medieval times , a UK squirrel could hop from tree to tree and get from Lands End to John o groats without ever touching the ground............there aren't so many wild hurds of game to hunt any more.....and in any case.......there are now 70 million people to feed in UK now.

When oil runs out, it will take a miracle to stop the vast majority of the human race dying off......the only answer is to plaster this over every primary school notice board and assembly hall that exists....and prey that a couple of those kids who read it will have the intellect of Einstein etc and be able to find the miracle energy cure.

I spoke to my nephews at school in UK......they dont even know oil is getting scarce.

[outcast]

.........OK, but the 3 phase electricity grid, especially the high voltage part, is scarce, and would not likely be located where you wanted to drill/dig/lift/hoist etc.

Even where those pylons do exist......you need seriously expensive switchgear etc and transformer sub-stations to get the electricity to the voltage level that's needed.

And yet none of those challenges actually stops us from doing exactly that.

[Ludi]

.........OK, but the 3 phase electricity grid, especially the high voltage part, is scarce, and would not likely be located where you wanted to drill/dig/lift/hoist etc.

Even where those pylons do exist......you need seriously expensive switchgear etc and transformer sub-stations to get the electricity to the voltage level that's needed.

And yet none of those challenges actually stops us from doing exactly that.

Are there examples?