Are we 40% down in oil use from last year

by **AskMaxim** » Thu 30 Apr 2009, 08:34:59

I would like to confirm what I 'heard' or 'misheard' recently:

Is the current downturn in crude oil price is due to a 40% drop in demand/consumption since the peak of 2008 ?

See, I also picked an idea from an unconfirmed source that without oil people on Earth will manage to produce about 20% energy of the 2008 oil-based total energy .

Are we indeed already half-way to sustainable levels without 'that much' pain?

by **AskMaxim** » Thu 30 Apr 2009, 08:35:50

I would like to confirm what I 'heard' or 'misheard' recently:

Is the current downturn in crude oil price is due to a 40% drop in demand/consumption since the peak of 2008 ?

See, I also picked an idea from an unconfirmed source that without oil people on Earth will manage to produce about 20% energy of the 2008 oil-based total energy .

Are we indeed already half-way to sustainable levels without 'that much' pain?

by **3aidlillahi** » Thu 30 Apr 2009, 08:59:03

There has not been a 40% decline in demand although there has been a drop. I don't have the numbers but it's <5%, I believe. The amazing thing about inelastic items like oil is that just a 1% shortfall can cause massive run-ups in price just as a 1% supply-demand gap can cause massive declines in price.

by **pup55** » Thu 30 Apr 2009, 12:07:06

OF2 has been tracking this statistic, and the 5% figure is about right for the US, for gasoline it is less than 1% demand drop, for jet fuel it is on the order of 10-15% depending on month.

Globally it might be 5-6%, in Europe and the US, Japan and China are a lot more severe, though, I think the last I heard was maybe 10% for Japan and 16% for China. Japan has been on a downward trajectory for several years due to their conservation efforts. China is down that much because they are at or near depression level economics, although they would never admit it publicly.

But no 40%.

The reason it dropped so much was that it was a bit overinflated at the peak. It is a bit underinflated now. The figure people keep throwing around is in the 60-s as the equilibrium price for oil....which I think is about what it was in late 2007 before all of the craziness started.

by **notill** » Thu 30 Apr 2009, 18:56:53

Total world consumption, crude oil and liquid fuel. According to the EIA.

March 2007 85.85 mbd

March 2008 85.05 mbd

March 2009 83.42 mbd

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm?tableNumber=6&periodType=Monthly&startYear=2008&startMonth=1&startMonthChanged=false&startQuarterChanged=false&endYear=2008&endMonth=12&endMonthChanged=false&endQuarterChanged=false&noScroll=false&loadAction=Apply+Changes

by **Lanthanide** » Sun 03 May 2009, 08:03:38

The quick figures from those numbers is 2009 consumption is down 1.9% on 2008, and 2.8% on 2007. Not a very large drop at all.