[rangerone314]

What does this graph of the S&P500 mean to you?

sp500.GIF

Perhaps that 401K plans are a great idea, LOL!

[AirlinePilot]

How about we let that play out a bit further? My guess right now is that right side goes a whole lot lower in the near term.

This time it really is different.

Probably a lot more than just a lost decade when all this is said and done. More like a lost generation.

[AAA]

This graph proves to me a disciplined investing strategy will be very profitable.

People doubled their money in the S&P 500 in less than 4 years (1996-2000).

Then almost doubled their money AGAIN from 2003-2008.

If someone is too greedy to take some profits after 100% return twice in 10 years then they deserve to loss some.

[joewp]

Technical analysis would call that a double top with the next low lower than the previous low, a very bearish signal. While taking investment advice from "some guy on the Internet" (sorry for stealing that, pup55!) isn't a great idea, I'd think you'd just be a fool to put your money in an S&P tracking fund, considering that the next low will probably be much lower than 700.

Just my opinion for what it's worth.

[odegaard]

Technical analysis would call that a double top with the next low lower than the previous low, a very bearish signal. While taking investment advice from "some guy on the Internet" (sorry for stealing that, pup55!) isn't a great idea, I'd think you'd just be a fool to put your money in an S&P tracking fund, considering that the next low will probably be much lower than 700.

Just my opinion for what it's worth.

+1

The S&P500 will drop to 400 by the end of year 2010.

my 2 cents

[rangerone314]

This graph proves to me a disciplined investing strategy will be very profitable.

People doubled their money in the S&P 500 in less than 4 years (1996-2000).

Then almost doubled their money AGAIN from 2003-2008.

If someone is too greedy to take some profits after 100% return twice in 10 years then they deserve to loss some.

Point well taken...

It does seem (at least for the 13 year period) that buy and hold is a strategy that will lead to poverty (due to inflation which is itself, understated, but that is another story)

Part of the problem is the zero-sum game issue... you start out at point A in 1996 and end up at point A in 2009. Sure some people will make money, but for that to happen, somebody had to lose money. It is not quite the same issue had the graph gone higher by 2009...

I have to wonder about GDP when taking the national debt into account, trade deficit, social security, and deteriorating roads, bridges, powergrid, steampipes, waterpipes... what would the GDP be if we actually counted Depreciation of our assets, like a corporation.

IE if we did an actual national balance sheet (listing assets, liabilities & equity) and an income statement (listing income & expenses-including asset depreciation), what would the result be?

The way the gov runs things, they would have a fleet of cars and not pay $50 for oil changes each quarter, and would rather let the engine explode in X years and let a future gov deal with the buying new cars, all the while presenting a rosy picture now.

[AAA]

Technical analysis would call that a double top with the next low lower than the previous low, a very bearish signal. While taking investment advice from "some guy on the Internet" (sorry for stealing that, pup55!) isn't a great idea, I'd think you'd just be a fool to put your money in an S&P tracking fund, considering that the next low will probably be much lower than 700.

Just my opinion for what it's worth.

+1

The S&P500 will drop to 400 by the end of year 2010.

my 2 cents

Are you both shorting the S&P 500 or are you just talking out of your butt and throwing up numbers for fun?

Your 2 cents are worthless unless you are putting your money where your mouth is.

[odegaard]

Technical analysis would call that a double top with the next low lower than the previous low, a very bearish signal. While taking investment advice from "some guy on the Internet" (sorry for stealing that, pup55!) isn't a great idea, I'd think you'd just be a fool to put your money in an S&P tracking fund, considering that the next low will probably be much lower than 700.

Just my opinion for what it's worth.

+1

The S&P500 will drop to 400 by the end of year 2010.

my 2 cents

Are you both shorting the S&P 500 or are you just talking out of your butt and throwing up numbers for fun?

Your 2 cents are worthless unless you are putting your money where your mouth is.

Stock Markets Current News III (Take Two) -> page 48

Is anyone else shorting the stock market or is it just me?
Don't be shy, put your hands up if you are.
I am currently holding a short position Dow Jones.

[vision-master]

This graph proves to me a disciplined investing strategy will be very profitable.

People doubled their money in the S&P 500 in less than 4 years (1996-2000).

Then almost doubled their money AGAIN from 2003-2008.

If someone is too greedy to take some profits after 100% return twice in 10 years then they deserve to loss some.

That's my my stockbroker friend is doing manual labor right now.

[AAA]

Stock Markets Current News III (Take Two) -> page 48

Is anyone else shorting the stock market or is it just me?
Don't be shy, put your hands up if you are.
I am currently holding a short position Dow Jones.

Would you like for me to bend over also?

[odegaard]

to: AAA
*getting serious now*

Why do you believe the Dow can't drop down to 4,000 or the S&P hitting 400?
This is the worst financial crisis since the great depression and that is NO exaggeration.

[AAA]

to: AAA
*getting serious now*

Why do you believe the Dow can't drop down to 4,000 or the S&P hitting 400?
This is the worst financial crisis since the great depression and that is NO exaggeration.

Things are bad but WallStreet is getting a better handle on what is taking place and the govt. will step in before the markets ever get that low.

So do you think oil could be trading at $10 soon?

[AAA]

Just when Manifa, deep water, etc. come on line this year and next, and the barrel price drops to $10---all the other giant fields on the planet will have begun their precipitous decline.

At that point petroleum goes to $100, $200, $500 and beyond, and the stock market sinks to ZILTCH, NADA, NEGATIVITY, ZERO.

I heard the same thing back in 2005 when everyone thought oil peaked then. Even last summer people thought we would see $250 by 2009. Instead we saw oil at $32 and now are around $57.

I believe we will peak but it could be further down the road then you think.

[AAA]

references?

HA HA, I haven't seen that card played in a while. pstarr I know you don't need references but just to flatter you...here are a few I pulled up quickly.

2005 peak?

December 2005 Peak, what delays TSHTF?

(Breaking News) Rimini: Campbell announces PEAK in 2005!!!!

[shortonoil]

AAA said:

I believe we will peak but it could be further down the road then you think.

Without an understanding of how declining ERoEI is decimating the utility of petroleum, the above comment doesn’t carry much weight. The per unit energy contribution to the general economy for petroleum has been in decline for almost a 100 years. Failing to recognize this well studied, well documented physical property of our most utilized energy source is a little more than a slight oversight. It is a recipe for a grandiose, and disastrous mis-calculation.





AvailableEnergy

[patience]

shortonoil,

I know you base ananlysis on EROEI. I wonder what the factor could be for decreasing utility value for energy over the last 100 years? When fossil fuels were first utilized, they were applied to the most important task first--pumping water out of coal mines with James Watt's steam engines, then later to agriculture and grinding grain, then factory tasks. For some time now, our increased energy usage has gone to luxuries--air conditioning, leisure transportation, and electronic toys are examples I'm thinking of. Much less gain per calorie of energy used, compared to grinding flour, or running a washing machine.

As energy becomes more dear for everyone, I expect to see the original trend reverse itself, at least among us poor people. My life would be better if I use what little energy I can afford to do the most labor intensive stuff and give up the luxuries. (I realize many people think air conditioning is a necessity, but it is not for me.) My priorities run to things like home heating, refrigeration/food freezer, lights, radio, and phone, which I can provide with alternative sources. The pinch will come when gasoline is too pricey to use much, whereupon I will cut transportation to the BONE, and use the gas to plow the garden, grind our flour, and run my workshop.

I can foresee choices of this sort facing the masses, as unemployment rises, and the social safety nets develope large holes. I expect this to become the new "normal", not just for a 10 year slump, but for generations to come, based on the available energy.

[joewp]

Technical analysis would call that a double top with the next low lower than the previous low, a very bearish signal. While taking investment advice from "some guy on the Internet" (sorry for stealing that, pup55!) isn't a great idea, I'd think you'd just be a fool to put your money in an S&P tracking fund, considering that the next low will probably be much lower than 700.

Just my opinion for what it's worth.

+1

The S&P500 will drop to 400 by the end of year 2010.

my 2 cents

Are you both shorting the S&P 500 or are you just talking out of your butt and throwing up numbers for fun?

Your 2 cents are worthless unless you are putting your money where your mouth is.

I own quite a few December 55 puts on the SPX and I just bought two more today.

Good enough?