Dr. Bakhtiari views the future of worldwide oil extraction in terms of four phases of transition, or, as he puts it, T1, T2, T3, and T4. I described these four phases in greater detail in an article entitled "Peak Oil and Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition."
In an e-mail to me that explained and amplified his views, Bakhtiari stated:
"The four transition periods (T1, T2, T3, and T4) will roughly span the 2006-2020 era. Each transition [will] cover, on average, three-four years...[T]he only transition we can see rather clearly (or rather, we hope to be able to comprehend) is T1. It is clear that T1 will witness the tilting of the 'oil demand' and 'oil supply' scales -- with the former dominant at the onset and the latter commanding toward the close (say, by 2009 or 2010)."
That is, Bakhtiari's view of T1 is that worldwide oil supplies will remain almost constant during this initial phase. New discoveries and production that is now coming on line will just about compensate for the production that is lost due to depletion. But T2, T3, and T4 will be, as Bakhtiari puts it, "more turbulent phases."
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