[deMolay]

Predictions of Deflation after July http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5301123/bEnjoy-the-rally-while-it-lasts---but-expect-to-take-a-sucker-punchb.html

[odegaard]

eek too long.
please fix your link

Howto - Linking to another site

I agree, this bear rally is going to run out of steam pretty soon.

[patience]

Have NEVER been able to make the URL thing work. (or any of the other posting buttons, for that matter) Much easier for me to simply type what I want to say. No glitches/deleted posts/fubar links that way. Call me IT illiterate.

On topic, I would not bet in either direction on the stock market, since we are seeing the most manipulated market in history, IMHO. If QE continues (why would it NOT continue?), then the market gets pumped by the funny munny. Or, fear takes that money to commodites, taking stocks down? Who knows, but I see it as a sucker game just now.

[jboogy]

patience wrote

On topic, I would not bet in either direction on the stock market, since we are seeing the most manipulated market in history

you just said a mouthful. This market is completely de-coupled from reality. The problem is that money in a strange way is going to automatically find it's own place to park, (mutual funds, money market funds, etc.) based on short-term performance ie. stock price movement trends, that are not grounded in traditional stock performance indicators like ....oh I don't know...PE ratios, outstanding debt, potential for future earnings, etc.

plus you have a lot of heavy hitters that now use the market as their own personal pump and dump playground.

You have the entire financial sector rallying based on taxpayer re-capitalization while refusing to mark to market hundreds of billions( at least ) in toxic CDO's and leveraged to the hilt derivitives that they are trying to pretend don't exist. This is truly bizarre how out of whack unregulated capitalism can get.

You have a lot of individual small to medium sized investors that simply have no place to put money, partnered with brokers who are so desperate for a recovery they tell clients to buy, buy, buy based on any movement up or down, or no movement at all.

Then there's the uber-positive talking head cheerleaders on TV that think a bloody stool in the morning is a sign from GOD that the market has bottomed and you by GOD better hop on board the gravy train right now or you'll be left at the station, dick in hand, while your wife and luggage go on their way to paradise without you.

Anyone who still endorses completely unfettered free markets is a complete idealogue who has mastered the third grade art of holding their hands over their ears and saying ; " na, nin, na, nin, nyah, nyah, I'm not listening "

[AAA]

Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

I have been enjoying every second of it.

I have made up all my losses since the market dropped because I was smart enough to be placing NEW money into the market and several of my stocks rose more than 100% in a few months. BGC, BAC, MYRG, DPM, and TRN

I could have thrown darts at the Wall Street Journal, bought the stocks the darts landed on, and those stocks probably would have returned 20% or more in recent months. Heck you could have bought S&P 500 and returned 34%. 34% on an index fund is crazy awesome.

I feel sorry for those who sold when the market crashed and are now holding cash when the market is rallying.

[endtimes]

you don,t feel sorry,your just gloating and trying to rub it in people,s faces.

[rockdoc123]

Once the final spurts of oil (from Manifa, Safaniyah, deep-water GOM, Angola, and Brazil, Siberia, Kashegan et.al.) runs down the collective legs of 'civilization' (sometime around 2010)

where do you get these half-baked ideas?
According to WoodMackenize Upstream data the forecast for the very fields/areas you refer to increases steadily from 4.9 MMBPD in 2009 to 7.6 MMBPD in 2017 which is the end of their forecast period for most of the fields. Manifa and Kashagan don't even come onstream until after 2010.

[AAA]

you don,t feel sorry,your just gloating and trying to rub it in people,s faces.

I actually do feel sorry because I have told many people here on peakoil.com and in person they should be investing when the markets go down because they will rise again. They laughed in my face and told me I was young and ignorant because I didn't know how the real world worked.

The part that really worries me is many people I have talked to are in their 50s and 60s. They were nearly 100% invested in the markets and lost about 40% of their retirement. They sold out when the market was near the bottom because they were afraid of banks going under and feared they might lose it all. But since they are holding cash they have missed the 34% move in the markets. But now they don't want to buy in case this was bear rally fearing it could go back down another 30% to test the lows. So they wait for the S&P 500 to go back down to 700 before they invest anything. Personally I don't think it will go that low anytime soon. I could be wrong.

The part that hurts me is this means they will be postponing retirement for another 10 years or more. They should be enjoying themselves on a golf course, travel trailer, or hobby farm. Instead they are worrying how to make enough money to retire at 70.

[endtimes]

hey,i did not mean anything i was joking and i think its good of you to feel the way you do.

[shortonoil]

When the quants that have been driving this market, GS, Renaissance, GETCO, Highridge and etc. have finished eating their own young, this will end. Corporate profits are abysmal. Sales, exports, imports, asset values, employment and GDP around the world are plunging. The credit markets are a catastrophe.

When the vampires of Wall Street has sucked their prey dry, and the gullible have added their last meager contributions to the feast, this hysteria will cease. In the meantime, donate at your own peril!

[odegaard]

Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

I have been enjoying every second of it.

I have made up all my losses since the market dropped because I was smart enough to be placing NEW money into the market and several of my stocks rose more than 100% in a few months. BGC, BAC, MYRG, DPM, and TRN

I could have thrown darts at the Wall Street Journal, bought the stocks the darts landed on, and those stocks probably would have returned 20% or more in recent months. Heck you could have bought S&P 500 and returned 34%. 34% on an index fund is crazy awesome.

To: AAA

There's a section on this forum called ***Stock Markets Current News III (Take Two)***

If you're so smart then why don't you make your public announcements there on what you're going to buy or sell in real time so we can look back several months later to determine how accurate you really are!

I feel sorry for those who sold when the market crashed and are now holding cash when the market is rallying.

I feel sorry for people who like to talk in past tense about how smart they were because they "supposedly" made a fat profit on some investment.
I especially feel sorry for such people because they think the rest of society is gullible enough to actually believe them when in reality 90% of people do NOT.

[jboogy]

You beat me to it odor-god, I hold my nose and nod my head sagely when I hear about how this or that guy was able to perfectly time the market dips and rises, sorry...... but it always seems we hear about what they did after they did it, never hear about what they're planning to do. I guess tripleA just knew he had to liquidate his positions right before the NYSE tumbled from that mid 14,000 level, right tripleA?

[deMolay]

Hi AAA don't feel sorry for this old Goat. Everything I own is paid for, 640 acres of land, herd of cattle machinery, home etc. Plus 6 different income streams all very safe and secured. And all through the Crisis I have made a steady 4% on my investments. While others lost 40% or more I have made money. But be careful if you are still in the market it will crash again. And I think we will see Deflation which will be very bad.

[shortonoil]

Of the 6000, or so, hedge funds in the country the 10 best performers for the year (the best of the best) have done:

Code: Select all

Goldentree credit opp; mtd +13.52 ytd +26.71
Glenview; mtd +15.04 ytd +25.75
Bluecrest capital intl macro; mtd +5.27 ytd +20.72
Lafayette; mtd +5.12 ytd +13.79
Tremblant; mtd +3.78 ytd +13.53
Highbridge multi strat; mtd +3.54 ytd +11.02
Weiss ; mtd +3.97 ytd +10.90
Brevan howard macro; mtd +0.12 ytd +9.75
ESL/lampert; mtd +17.50 ytd +8.61
Farallon; mtd +8.14 ytd + 8.39


AAA said:

I have made up all my losses since the market dropped because I was smart enough to be placing NEW money into the market and several of my stocks rose more than 100% in a few months. BGC, BAC, MYRG, DPM, and TRN

Pretty amazing! The geniuses of Wall Street and Greenich can’t hold a candle to you!

[vision-master]

an I think he's like 26 years old.

[Tyler_JC]

The geniuses of Wall Street were invested as of Jan 1, our friend AAA only got back in on March 15th (ish).

That protected him from the huge downturn from January to March and allowed him to buy in at the bottom.

Why shouldn't he be outperforming Wall Street right now?

[sameu]

who cares anyway
seriously, who gives a crap about what kind of money some dude on the internet has made or lost
and it's pretty pathetic when someone shows off with being break even

I have made up all my losses since the market dropped because I was smart enough to

yes very smart indeed

[odegaard]

The geniuses of Wall Street were invested as of Jan 1, our friend AAA only got back in on March 15th (ish).

That protected him from the huge downturn from January to March and allowed him to buy in at the bottom.

Why shouldn't he be outperforming Wall Street right now?

What AAA claims is a *technical* possibility
but..........the devil is in the details.

There's a difference between getting lucky once in a while as opposed to being able to do it consistently.
If AAA were to keep this up consistently he'd easily make 100% gain per year.
If a person had say $10,000 and could make 100% guaranteed every year compounded annually then:
On their 10th year they would make $10 Million.
On their 20th year they would make $10 Billion.
On their 30th year they would make $10 Trillion.
*delicate cough - the power of compounding*

Do you know anybody who started with $10,000 and made $10Billion after 20 years? I don't!

Getting back to AAA's claim.
Did he honestly make that much money in such a short amount of time?
maybe yes / maybe not (my gut says no...I'll explain later)
Can he do this on a consistent basis --> IMPOSSIBLE