[CanadianEh]

Hi members,
First off, this is my first post, so I apologize if this is in the incorrect location.

I'm a student in Canada and I have to run a class simulation for my final assignment and I wanted to run a simulation to do with Peak Oil. I am looking for a simulation that I can run in my class where the class is divided into teams ("major players" of the issue) and we run the simulation. If there aren't any pre-made simulations out there, any advice would be helpful.

Thanks,
Alex

[Schmuto]

Simulation?

Not sure Peak Oil can be simulated readily.

[Schmuto showing EXTREME restraint and not suggesting that a simulation of a post-peak oil future as Schumto sees it would be simple and powerful]



Must it be a "simulation"?

Perhaps you can do a simulation where you show what it would be like if the United States was actually a democracy and the current president - Bush the 3rd - was nothing more than the newer model of the failed Bush the 2nd prototype.

DAMMIT! I couldn't help myself.

Forgive me my PO.com brethren.

[35Kas]

It would definitely depend on the complexity of the simulation that you are trying to achieve.

If you are trying to simulate a production/extraction curve of a finite resource on a computer or even by playing a simple game, this becomes a quite simple endeavor, otherwise it could turn quite complicated.

Assuming the former, all you have to do is model a finite resource (10000 units, which has 1 units added to it per second [additional discoveries] ) and establish a way to use the resource to extract more of itself. Say you start with 10 units and it costs 10 units and 5 seconds to install an extractor that collects 200 units over a period of 1000 seconds and those 200 units are subtracted from the total amount each time and given out each second at the rate established (200/1000=1unit per 5 seconds or .2unit per second or .2 u/s). Obviously this is quite simplistic and I am just pulling this out of my as$, but you could tweak the cost of extraction to increase with time and add other variables that influence the total extractable amount per extractor as time goes on but that is beyond the point.

You would start with quite a small extraction rate, which would increase overtime as you accumulated more and added more extractors. There would be a point where you would run out of the ability to install extractors because there is no more units available for discovery and all you are going to have is what is still due to be delivered by the extractors already in place. Your production rate will top out about then and decline as time goes on.

Tweak the numbers and the rates and you will have a pet simulation of the history of oil production, you might even make it look like a perfect bell curve. If you add randomness to each next extractor it becomes even more realistic.

[Tyler_JC]

http://www.oilshockwave.com/

There you go.

[vtsnowedin]

Hi members,
First off, this is my first post, so I apologize if this is in the incorrect location.

I'm a student in Canada and I have to run a class simulation for my final assignment and I wanted to run a simulation to do with Peak Oil. I am looking for a simulation that I can run in my class where the class is divided into teams ("major players" of the issue) and we run the simulation. If there aren't any pre-made simulations out there, any advice would be helpful.

Thanks,
Alex

Welcome EH.
First off , What course is the class in?
If you just need a complicated problem to task your players with a little reading here and in Life after the oil crash should give you all the material you need. Getting your fellow Canadians to grasp that the government might not always be there to help you is the main obstacle to realism I see before you.

[heroineworshipper]

U can simulate peak oil by renting an SUV & trying to feed it in cash. You can't do it. You need home equity lines of credit, mortgage bailouts, & taxes on Civic drivers.

[jdumars]

Check this out... it was an alternate reality game that modeled an "oil shock": http://www.worldwithoutoil.org Thousands participated and it was very illuminating. The main writer Ken has a blog on it here: http://wwolives.wordpress.com/ Very good reading and applicable to your project.

[CanadianEh]

Thanks so much for all the information, it's much appreciated. First off, this is for a World Issues class at the High School level. I'm going to work on developing a simulation of my own that is more Canada-centric.

I was thinking of having 5 groups (Oil companies, Non-oil companies/corporations, Canadian government and Citizens)

Each group will have a "goal" and I will have a currency to illustrate the balance of power. The variable in this game will be the price of oil and the end result will be that everyone loses. The only "winner" in this simulation will be oil companies, but that will only be until oil runs out. I'm still working on the finer points, but when I finish the simulation I will post it for other teachers/students doing something similar. Any feedback/suggests are welcome and encouraged.

Thanks
Alex

[zeke]

My suggestion would be to (include) discussion of the fact that there is no plan for how to live on decreasing amounts of cheap fuel.

The "business model" was set to All Engines Ahead decades ago, and is prby frozen stuck in that position. You won't hear many "businessmen" or economists talk about economic contraction in positive terms.

Most people assume that things will continue as they are now, which means never-ending growth, with a result that there is no plan made or laid out for how we step back. Imagine what might happen without a plan...How MIGHT it proceed lacking one?

You've prbly heard comments about how governments the size of modern industrial nations are like big ships and you simply can't turn them around quickly..takes time..years... Which might be true, provided everyone does their part and drags their feet in earnest..

There are a lot of social/economic structures and constructs and mental paradigms at work here and which are just as important as the basic geological realities.

z

[TeddyNguyen]

simulation credit


Thanks for sharing this useful information. It's great.

[energyhoggin]

here is your simulation below but take into account this all depends on the decline rate and so on, im pretty sure the decline rate will slow down the economy "demand destruction" so it can give us enough time to adapt to the lifestyle below

SUV or extremely large pickup truck with four doors enough room for five families
luxury car or roomy pickup "extended cab"
mid size car or pickup "six cylinder"
pinto type or economy car "4 cylinder" earlier type of Toyota pickup,"small truck in these days"
hybridization electric/gas
Geo metro type car "3 banger/hybrid"
???????
motorcycle
moped
gas powered bicycle
scooter
gas powered skates
horse, whoever is lucky enough
bicycle
Moe and Joe