[Keith_McClary]

We appreciate all the work you do to cut'n'paste all these corporate press releases about stupendous gushers, but it's a bit overwhelming. How about summarizing your findings in a table or graph, something like this one by "ace" at the Oil Drum:

[shortonsense]

We appreciate all the work you do to cut'n'paste all these corporate press releases about stupendous gushers, but it's a bit overwhelming. How about summarizing your findings in a table or graph, something like this one by "ace" at the Oil Drum:

You want Oilfinder to design a graph for you which excludes lots of oil so he can show something in biased way? Why would he want to do that? I think he has been doing pretty good including everything he can find, and busting the entire myth of "we use more than we find!!" without too much trouble.

Why can't he just make a graph which includes all the finds rather than one of these "exclude everything possible to try and score a point" graphs?

[copious.abundance]

After each year I *have* made summaries in my Catalog thread. Plus this year and last year I started doing running totals after each discovery.

I don't feel like making any graphs. Sorry. Here is a quick look at my yearly totals:

------------------------------------------------------------

Total 2006: 10.65 - 25.9 billion barrels.

This gives us a mean value of 18.27 billion barrels.

------------------------------------------------------------

Total 2007: 32.32 billion - 36.85 billion.

This gives us a mean value of 34.58 billion barrels.

------------------------------------------------------------

Total 2008: 24.009 billion - 27.758 billion.

This gives us a mean value of 25.88 billion barrels.

------------------------------------------------------------

For 2009 I have added a new feature separating (where I can) OIP from recoverable figures. Do not assume the recoverable is a sub-set of the OIP, they are totally separate and have little to do with each other.

Recoverable running total year to date: 1.548 billion barrels minimum to 3.476 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 5.515 billion barrels minimum to 7.01 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------------------------------

That's my info. If someone else wants to make a graph, go ahead.

[AirlinePilot]

Why can't he just make a graph which includes all the finds rather than one of these "exclude everything possible to try and score a point" graphs?

Oh come on. Please enlighten us all on how that graph( ace aint the only one coming up with very similar data) does anything you claim. Show your work please. I'm tired of this crap here. What sources are you using to claim things are different? Attacking "doomers" isn't sufficient anymore. You need to prove how the graph is wrong. Do that or STFU.

Since when in the history of oil exploration and production have "all the finds" resulted in the same amount produced that was claimed? Careful, your naivete is showing.

[copious.abundance]

BTW, I would like to add a comment . . .

As I have done this over the past few years (especially starting last year), I have gotten "better" at finding these things. Particularly in 2006, I did not search as extensively as I did in 2007 and, especially, 2008. So particularly in 2006, there are going to be ones I missed - but I *know* there are still many I do not catch even nowadays, because there are so many discoveries made whose resource sizes are not announced until years after the discovery is made, and then they get buried in corporate quarterly or year-end statements. I've discussed this at length in my catalog thread. I am particularly frustrated with my inability to find discovery sizes in Angola, where LOTS of discoveries have been made over the past several years.

On the other hand, in 2006 and 2007 I listed a few discoveries which, in hindsight, I probably should not have listed. I'm particularly thinking of a "discovery" in Tanzania which I now realize was just an estimate from seismic readings. Probably a few others I should have waited for more information on. This, fortunately, I have avoided doing in 2008 and this year. Essentially, my methodology has gotten better over time.

But I also tend to think the faults of my methodology in 2006 and 2007 probably balance out. While I included some I probably should not have, I also missed many. If you want to, you can take 2006 and 2007 with a grain of salt. 2008 and 2009 are much better.

I would go back and do some editing of 2006 and 2007, but those were in my old account and I cannot log in under that account anymore. But anyway, as I said, given the balancing faults it's probably "good enough."

[copious.abundance]

Particularly in 2006, I did not search as extensively as I did in 2007 and, especially, 2008. So particularly in 2006, there are going to be ones I missed - but I *know* there are still many I do not catch even nowadays, because there are so many discoveries made whose resource sizes are not announced until years after the discovery is made, and then they get buried in corporate quarterly or year-end statements.

BTW, here's a PERFECT example of this: Someone find for me an official statement from BP telling us the size of the Thunder Horse field. Unofficial estimates from various sources do not count (I have seen 1 billion - 1.5 billion barrels). Keep in mind this was discovered in 1999 and is now in production. It is now 10 years later, and an official statement still has yet to be made (at least, that I can discern or find).

In other words, if I had started my catalog in 1999, Thunder Horse would still not be cataloged. This is one example of how I am absolutely certain there are a lot of discoveries made that I miss (and likely will never find).

[Blacksmith]

Why you guys even bother with this A-hole is beyond me.

[kiwichick]

before Copurnicus earth was the center of the universe

before columbus the earth was flat

before the wright bros ( and richard pearse for the kiwis) if man had been meant to fly god would have given us wings

before darwin god created the world in 7 days

before einsten; newton; rutherford etc

we are still burning 70 million barrels of crude every day

and adding 60+ million GHG emitters to the population each year

[JohnDenver]

How about summarizing your findings in a table or graph, something like this one by "ace" at the Oil Drum:

That graph isn't by "ace". It's by J. Laherrere - you can tell by the style, and the lower left corner.

[Roy]

Why you guys even bother with this A-hole is beyond me.

I say this in the most complimentary way possible:

Every class needs a clown.

[NoWorries]

I don't think Oifinder is a clown by any means. And I think such dismissive remarks only lend credence to the view that "doomers hear what they want to hear" (and so do Pollyannas).

However I'm struck by the relatively small numbers (estimated) of the conventional reserve findings over the past 10 years or so. These are not big fields. And we desperately need big fields (eg--on the scale of Ghawar) because that's what we need to replace. So while I don't doubt Oilfinder's findings, I fail to see how they could provide us with more than 5 or 6 years' worth of oil even at current rates consumption.

Caveat: the Arctic may hold vast reserves (as much as 30% of global supply). But there are many, many challenges to opening up the Arctic (geographical, political, amongst others).

[bratticus]

... adding 60+ million GHG emitters to the population each year

Is that still true under the current economic conditions?

[shortonsense]

Why can't he just make a graph which includes all the finds rather than one of these "exclude everything possible to try and score a point" graphs?

Oh come on. Please enlighten us all on how that graph( ace aint the only one coming up with very similar data) does anything you claim. Show your work please. I'm tired of this crap here.

Read his title. Don't blame me for not seeing whats right in front of your nose.

What sources are you using to claim things are different? Attacking "doomers" isn't sufficient anymore. You need to prove how the graph is wrong. Do that or STFU.

Bite me. I don't need any sources because someone wrote his exclusions right on the graph. Learn how to read.

Since when in the history of oil exploration and production have "all the finds" resulted in the same amount produced that was claimed? Careful, your naivete is showing.

Oilfinder, give or take, has referenced quite reasonably an amount of oil of similar size as consumption 2 out of 3 years running. One appears slightly short, the other two average out just fine on consumption.

[shortonsense]

dup

[mos6507]

Wow, Monte AND JD posting again. Just like old times again.

[eXpat]

I don't feel like making any graphs. Sorry. Here is a quick look at my yearly totals:
That's my info. If someone else wants to make a graph, go ahead.

Why? this is an honest question. You know better than anyone the information you post, If another person takes your numbers, put them in an spreadsheet, and creates a graphic from where others parties can draw a conclusion, there´s always the danger that, that person can make a mistake, use not updated data that you have presented afterwards.
You have made 2567 posts from Mar 26, 2008 to prove your point that we, as a civilization, are not running short of the most important resource there is, and you can not put all your numbers in a graphic?. If you advocate for a model, that being that we have nothing to worry about, that we have ample reserves of oil, formulate a model, as others have done. Create the OilFinder2 model, so anybody can see it. Put your money where your mouth is.

[TheDude]

That really clears things up. You could toss in regions/nations/continents and whatever you please, if you had the time.

What it takes to make a chart:

OpenOffice .org - The Free and Open Productivity Suite. Free, open source. Graph wizard walks you through everything, most data from EIA requires no modification.

Take screen shot of results and paste into IrfanView or the like - I prefer this program because it's simple, loads fast, etc. Crop graph, save as .png or .gif file for low resolution stuff like this. Host at Imageshack or Photobucket or whatever. Use thumbnails whenever possible to save on their bandwidth. Not rocket science.

AAPG discoveries for 2006. Lists included, feel free to compare and contrast, again, if you have the time for such stuff.

What The Dude is reading at the moment: Amazon.com: The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming: Robin M. Mills: Books. Cornucopia on display. My take is that all that oil will come out of the ground if everything else falls into place as well, i.e., no dictators in major producing nations seizing assets of service companies indiscriminately, no ex-Soviet regions holding up development plans on huge fields over and over again, etc. And what a wonderful world that would be, to quote Sam Cooke.

Can't for the life of me understand why these guys keep going on about reserve growth in regions that are in irreversible decline. He has terminal cancer, but hey, that sneeze is gone!