[Escapist]

I heard from peakoil 3 years ago. And first I tought big deal solar, wind, hydrogen will become available and we can continue business as usual.

But now that i saw the crash course of Chris Martenson I think that I get it.

Peakoil ain't that much about finding some revolutionary new technology that can replace oil.

Peakoil is more about how fast we can replace oil with something else slowly if oil production drops by 5% a year we need to replace those 5% with something else tar sands or natural gas.

Also we have to keep continuing our economic growth otherwise the whole system falls down. so if world oil consumption grows with 1 million barrels a day, we need to replace those with another alternative.

So the big problem is how the economy works. They are trying to build the same economic model while the foundations are collapsing.

The thing that actually has to be done is rebuild the whole economic model and the way how people think. it doesn't matter what kind of alternative we invent. Even if Nuclear fusion works tomorrow.When we keep living on growth eventually it will end wether it is by the disapearing of the bees or by overfishing, global warming, overpopulation, water and food shortages, destruction of rainforests.

[wisconsin_cur]

That is a very good start.

[davep]

So we have to learn to live with less energy, eventually using only sustainable resources. No growth-based economic model can handle that. Our system as we know it will be destroyed. It's up to us to shape the future.

[Escapist]

Peakoil should become the time where people accept that we have to throw away our current economic model based on Growth debt and consuming and replace it with an economy based on Saving, sound money, and balans.

or am i wrong?

[davep]

Peakoil should become the time where people accept that we have to throw away our current economic model based on Growth debt and consuming and replace it with an economy based on Saving, sound money, and balans.

or am i wrong?

That sounds eminently sensible to me. The problem is convincing the powerful vested interests in the status quo. Theyre going to make things worse before we can make them better.

[Escapist]

yeah I have the same idea they don't listen to treehuggers often ^^

But hopefully they will understand it soon, I hate to wake up in a world someday where 90% of all the species are gone and that in 2050 i hear something in the news that the last gorilla has died in the new york zoo or something like that. assuming we can replace oil with something else and we continue business as usual.

I have my doubts that peakoil will destroy civilization entirely, it's a major factor but I think the economy is self destructing and peakoil is just a problem on top of it.

But then again humans are self destructive also so its only normal that we created a suicidal system just making some theories up here.

[kpeavey]

You've got a good grip on things. Lots of people out there who do not understand exponential growth. This is the core of the problem, and has no technical solution.

[dunewalker]

Peakoil is more about how fast we can replace oil with something else slowly if oil production drops by 5% a year we need to replace those 5% with something else tar sands or natural gas.

Also we have to keep continuing our economic growth otherwise the whole system falls down. so if world oil consumption grows with 1 million barrels a day, we need to replace those with another alternative.

One critical factor needs mentioning: the global economy is fueled by CHEAP energy, not just abundant energy. That's why tar sands or anything else cannot substitute--the cost will be higher, and that stifles economic growth--game over.

[mos6507]

I have my doubts that peakoil will destroy civilization entirely

No matter how long you study the problem you'll be mulling this over until the future unfolds. Just an awareness of how close to the precipice we are is frightening in and of itself.

[outcast]

Yea! More backslapping and kool-aid drinking.

[url]peakoildebunked.blogspot.com[/url]This is better, and much closer to reality

[mos6507]

JD serves a very important role for doomers. Doomers need to hear from both extremes to decide where on the continuum they belong. I started my blog because of a post from JD telling all of us how useless doomsteading is. I don't want what JD says about it to be true, but I can't deny how compelling a lot of his logic was. My blog is in large part me trying to work out the feelings of doubt he inserted into my brain, complicated further by Toby Hemenway of all people. I don't think anyone should ever feel 100% confident in their world view. One should always allow their ideas to be challenged by devil's advocates.

[Ibon]

I don't think anyone should ever feel 100% confident in their world view. One should always allow their ideas to be challenged by devil's advocates.

Wise words....especially now when one can't be certain how solid is that ground under your feet!

[TheDude]

yeah I have the same idea they don't listen to treehuggers often ^^

But hopefully they will understand it soon, I hate to wake up in a world someday where 90% of all the species are gone and that in 2050 i hear something in the news that the last gorilla has died in the new york zoo or something like that. assuming we can replace oil with something else and we continue business as usual.

90% would be merely a matter of degree: Holocene extinction event - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Peter Raven, past President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, states in the foreword to their publication AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment:[5] "We have driven the rate of biological extinction, the permanent loss of species, up several hundred times beyond its historical levels, and are threatened with the loss of a majority of all species by the end of the 21st century."[6] The reasons for the current mass extinction are all human related and include deforestation and other habitat destruction, hunting and poaching, the introduction of non-native species, pollution and climate change with the United Nations estimating that the world is facing its worst extinction period since the dinosaurs became extinct 65 million years ago.[7]

A cornucopian actually stated here that the great variegation we have in species is merely useful for human aesthetic pleasure, one of the rare times I've felt like punching the monitor. These people are really brutally sick.

JD? For cornucopian outlooks I prefer Stuart Staniford, who modeled everything in his forecasts, with links to back up his projections. Very sharp guy, pity he's also retired - that some kind of occupational hazard? JD does/did a good job of rounding up news items on new EV companies and the like; but you need to ponder the logistics involved. It's all logistics. His repost was that big deal, we can all buy scooters and insulate our windows with bubble wrap. Well, how many scooters can we build on the fly? His and my position were actually pretty close, not that we got along, being, you know, testy jerks.
I'm dubious about neat outcomes - I had expectations that New Orleans would be promptly rebuilt, too. You follow the money, and it leads to profits, not what's best for society.

I have serious doubts about this notion of the world embracing a steady state economy, too. The paradigm of investing=profiting=growing is really lizard brain stuff for civilization. Nate Hagens posts about no-growth all the time at TOD and I ask him simple questions such as "Any politicians embracing these notions in any fashion whatsoever?" Not really. I can't see the masses flocking around something that's tantamount to a socialist utopia - maybe a fascist utopia, revenge against the corprotocracy with trains on time and lights on. Again, a switchover to a steady state economy would be ideal for civilization, but utopia means "No such place" which definitely applies here - it wouldn't happen in a simple peaceful fashion. What's to stop a nation getting the short end of things from just attacking a neighbor for its lebensraum?

[Escapist]

But how do you define growth not all growth is bad right?

a baby that is growing is good growth
or recovery programs to regrow the rainforest or some species is also good growth
growth in solar panels is also good in my opinion.

so you can say natural growth is fine but nature can balance itself. humans is maybe the biggest error nature made because we are destroying the balance?

Most of economic growth is bad? except for compagnies who are trying to safe nature and try to make the world better?
Like compagnies who are fishing the sea empty or monsanto who are trying to manipulate plants to grow faster so we can have even more people. And i'm thinking that compagnies like that will kill all important insects.

Bad growth is when there is too much of one thing?

i think 6 billion humans is more then enough to walk around I am not really looking forward to have 10 billion in 2050 if you look at how much we destroy now it ain't pretty. and population will decline sooner or later wether it is slowly or fast.

[JustaGirl]

JD serves a very important role for doomers. Doomers need to hear from both extremes to decide where on the continuum they belong. I started my blog because of a post from JD telling all of us how useless doomsteading is. I don't want what JD says about it to be true, but I can't deny how compelling a lot of his logic was. My blog is in large part me trying to work out the feelings of doubt he inserted into my brain, complicated further by Toby Hemenway of all people. I don't think anyone should ever feel 100% confident in their world view. One should always allow their ideas to be challenged by devil's advocates.

Thank you for the Toby Hemenway piece. It's an interesting view. My personal feeling is, if we are to have some type of major crisis or crash, those that survive will do so by luck. You can do things that will possibly give you a better chance, but in the end it will be luck.

I will say though, from personal experience having lived in both rural and city areas, they always get the lights back on first in the city, where we in rural areas had to wait over a week If there is any help to give, it will go to where the most people are congregated. I don't expect that to change in a post peak world.