[Arthur75]

CERA Official Acknowledges “Peak Oil is Here”
By admin • on June 9, 2009


Speaking at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC on 8 June, CERA Global Oil Group Managing Director Jim Burkhard began and ended his talk by stating that “CERA acknowledges that peak oil is here, you heard it from a CERA person.”

Mr. Burkhard spoke at a CSIS session on “Transforming the Transportation Sector: Energy Security, Climate Change and Transportation”.

During his presentation, Mr. Burkhard explained that in acknowledging that peak oil is here, CERA’s interpretation is that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years. He also stated that CERA maintains its position that the reasons for US liquid fuel demand having peaked are economic and geopolitical in their nature, rather than in any way driven by geologic factors.

ASPO-USA Advisory Board member Scott Pugh was present and provided this report.

Mr. Burkhard’s presentation should be available soon under “Events” at:

http://www.csis.org/researchfocus/energy/

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/0 ... l-is-here/

Impressive when they were saying no peak before 2020 in 2005

But still maintaining a kind of blur around peak demand or peak supply ...

[mos6507]

But still maintaining a kind of blur around peak demand or peak supply ...

This came up on LATOC. It's a non-story. They are talking about peak demand, not geology. Big whoop.

[Arthur75]

But still maintaining a kind of blur around peak demand or peak supply ...

This came up on LATOC. It's a non-story. They are talking about peak demand, not geology. Big whoop.

Yeah, as if peak (singular) demand could mean anything ...

[mos6507]

Yeah, as if peak (singular) demand could mean anything ...

It's called the credit crisis. Look it up. Wake me up when the oil companies are all pumping balls to the wall and oil is holding over $150 for over six months. Then I'll believe peak oil doom has arrived.

[Arthur75]

Yeah, as if peak (singular) demand could mean anything ...

It's called the credit crisis. Look it up. Wake me up when the oil companies are all pumping balls to the wall and oil is holding over $150 for over six months. Then I'll believe peak oil doom has arrived.

Misunderstanding, I basically agree with you, what I meant is that "peak demand" in itself doesn't mean much on a theoretic point of view, that is there is no reason for demand not to shoot back at some point if supply is plentyful.

So using the term somehow sounds like putting a toe on acknowledging peak supply.

[AirlinePilot]

Its just a CERA dolt using the term incorrectly, even though its not the way we use it here by definition, my hunch is he will be right.

It does not matter what reason is pointed to and I'd be really wary of anyone calling a US demand peak yet. I agree we will get to that point, but the reason they are saying this is because like everyone else calling "green shoots" or "recession over" they got it wrong. No weight given to the historic nature of the economic downturn we are currently in. This is not a normal recession. If and when we recover from this malaise I can assure you demand will rise. Thats when CERA and everyone else will get to see what the real problems are due to peaking world oil production.

[Tyler_JC]

So CERA has decided to completely ignore graphs like that one?

Are they idiots or liars?

[TheDude]

They're idioars who liot.

Tata Nano: 200,000 Orders and a Waiting List Through 2011 - Auto Observer



Duh...think I'll just stop driving on a whim...no reason...don't know why...duh...

[copious.abundance]

During his presentation, Mr. Burkhard explained that in acknowledging that peak oil is here, CERA’s interpretation is that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years. He also stated that CERA maintains its position that the reasons for US liquid fuel demand having peaked are economic and geopolitical in their nature, rather than in any way driven by geologic factors.

Uh yeah - peak demand.

That actually supports the cornicopian view: Production will peak when demand peaks.

[Tyler_JC]

OilFinder2,

Are you suggesting that the decline in US gasoline demand will not be made up for by increased demand from the developing world?

[copious.abundance]

I was responding to the specific statements made by the CERA person.

As for the developing world, they too, do not need to consume increasing amounts of oil in order to support their growth. In particular I've been reporting here how India is about to transition to a natural gas-based economy (though no one but me seems to be paying attention), I've also reported the same thing here regarding Pakistan (who is way ahead of anyone else in that regard), and the same thing here for Argentina. And even China is starting to make baby steps towards the same. A very large % of vehicles in Brazil run on ethanol and they too, have 1 million natural gas vehicles. My own opinion is that the developing-nations-will-consume-way-more-oil argument is way overblown. Of course they'll consume *some* more, but there's plenty of evidence many developing nations are, in fact, switching to alternatives (mostly NG). Couple that with flat or declining demand in the developed world, and fears about oil shortages brought about by developed nation growth are overblown IMO.

Here's one more example out today:
>>> LINK <<<

General Motors launches LPG run Chevrolet Spark in Mumbai
10 Jun 2009, 1313 hrs IST, AGENCIES

MUMBAI: General Motors India launched the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) version of its popular small car Chevrolet Spark here on Tuesday.

The LPG version is GM India's first clean-burning liquefied natural gas car in India, built at company's plant at Talegaon in Maharashtra.

Apart from the eco-friendly aspects on account of lesser emission, the LPG version of the Spark is set to offer a low running cost while retaining its inherent features of well-equipped small hatchback.

"Here in India it's been the growth for Chevrolet. Last year we sold 32,000 Sparks. We are very pleased to bring this version of the Spark, which is the LPG version. So we step into alternative fuels. The great thing about this is that it's a modern technology. It's a direct injection into the cylinder which gives the consumer a really comfortable ride," Karl Slym, President and Managing Director, General Motors India.

[...]

>>> Suzuki, India's largest carmaker, is soon to do the same <<<

And the more we have these oil price spikes, the more they will drive the developing world (and the developed world, too) to NG.

Contrary to popular belief, there *are* alternatives to oil.

[copious.abundance]

Another one, from last year. This time, Indonesia.

>>> LINK <<<

JK to speed up oil-to-gas conversion in land transportation
Sunday, July 13, 2008 01:27 WIB | Economic & Business

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The Indonesian government is to speed up implementation of its program to substitute gas for fuel oil in motor vehicles, Vice President Jusuf Kalla said.

Speaking at the commissioning of Indonesia`s first Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) filling station at Cikarang, east of Jakarta, on Saturday, he said the government would take concrete steps, including issuance of regulations, to accelerate the oil-to-gas conversion process for automotive transport.

"Speeding up the program is very important because the use of gas will economically be more advantageous as it is more efficient, more friendly to the environment, and reduce our need for fuel oils," he said.

He said the oil-to-gas converson program for motor vehicles would be carried out in the same way as the current drive to replace kerosene by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for households.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

My own opinion is that the developing-nations-will-consume-way-more-oil argument is way overblown.

And it looks like I'm not the only one who holds this view:
>>> LINK <<<

What’s more, the issue BP actually sees curtailing production in the future is a lack of global demand, not oil resources. That’s quite a statement from an oil producer.

If, 10 years from now, y'all are reading articles looking at oil consumption projections from 10-15 years before, and these articles are asking, "Where did the demand go?" - you heard it here first.

[copious.abundance]

As if I needed yet another example, in addition to Pakistan, India, Brazil and Argentina doing large-scale conversions of vehicles to NG, we also have Thailand doing the same.

>>> Thais Lead Drive to Natural-Gas Cars <<<

At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see large-scale gluts of oil in about ten years.

[TheDude]

CERA Global Oil Group Managing Director Jim Burkhard is certainly among those who see it as evidence of “peak oil” having arrived. During a recent presentation Burkhard explained how his interpretation is based on the fact that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years.

Yoo hoo, Mr. Cornucopian? We're in the middle of the worst recession in 8 decades, that a factor in any way? How about how we used the same amount of gasoline in August in 2005 as in 2007? Or how the VMT is barely trending down, even showing regional advances? Hello?

Pakistan, wow, 0.5% of global consumption. Thailand's 0.9%. Staggering dents to be made here. Your link on how India is about to shift to a gas-based economy is a series of suppositions about how they could power fuel cells and CNG buses, with no solid indications that the country will divest themselves of oil and all its conveniences; as it is 4 times as much oil is consumed, and the demand curve shows another of those steep upward trajectories.

[copious.abundance]

@TheDude:

The question was:

OilFinder2,

Are you suggesting that the decline in US gasoline demand will not be made up for by increased demand from the developing world?

Thailand, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina and India are all notable - and medium-sized to large - examples of developing nations. If the Pakistans and Thailands of the world are itty-bitty examples which are to be scoffed at, then they should be equally scoffed at when people talk about increased oil consumption from the developing world.

As for India, I don't know what your definition of "steep" is, but since you like to scoff at itty-bitty oil consumption increases, over the past 3 years liquids consumption in India has risen by a whopping 350K bpd. That's about 2/3 the production of Equador. Gee, wow we must be doomed.

Your link on how India is about to shift to a gas-based economy is a series of suppositions about how they could power fuel cells and CNG buses, with no solid indications that the country will divest themselves of oil and all its conveniences . . .

You did not read much of the links I provided. >>> Read the articles on this page <<<. I'll get you started with a couple excerpts from a couple articles:

Welcome to India’s new gas economy. As gas supply increases and distribution infrastructure (cross-country pipelines and piped gas in cities) falls in place, India will transit from an oil-based economy to a gas-based one, says former head of the Directorate of Hydrocarbons, Avinash Chandra. He estimates that India will find at least 200 trillion cubic feet of gas (tcf) from the country’s east coast alone.

And, just from a single gas field:

In February alone and at the low oil prices prevalent then, India's oil import bill of over $4 billion comprised nearly a quarter of the country's total imports. As the new supplies of natural gas replace other feed-stocks for consuming industries in coming months, the trade deficit on account of oil and oil products will narrow.

Government officials reportedly estimate that at current prices, the D6's peak production capacity will effectively shave off India's oil import bill by $9 billion -- more than twice February's oil imports.

[TheDude]

Prominent CERA official: “Peak Oil theory is garbage”

CERA : “ Peak Oil is Here”

Must be a Waste Management strike going on in Cambridge.

[TheDude]

As for India, I don't know what your definition of "steep" is, but since you like to scoff at itty-bitty oil consumption increases, over the past 3 years liquids consumption in India has risen by a whopping 350K bpd. That's about 2/3 the production of Equador. Gee, wow we must be doomed.

6.9% increase in oil consumption for '07, up from .8% in '04.

You did not read much of the links I provided.

I read the whole Marketwatch article, just didn't believe much of its conclusions, or fail to add the requisite grain of salt. You pay too much attention to glossolalia from government/corporate sources. Believe it or not these people sometimes have reasons to say what they do that is divorced from factual truth.

Welcome to India’s new gas economy. As gas supply increases and distribution infrastructure (cross-country pipelines and piped gas in cities) falls in place, India will transit from an oil-based economy to a gas-based one, says former head of the Directorate of Hydrocarbons, Avinash Chandra.

Why should I believe him? He could be a major shareholder in Reliance and is merely pumping a gas economy to boost his take. Oil still trumps any AFV for personal convenience, and if that weren't the #1 issue with newly minted motorists in India they'd carry on riding bicycles or buses.

[energyhoggin]

Yeah, as if peak (singular) demand could mean anything ...

It's called the credit crisis. Look it up. Wake me up when the oil companies are all pumping balls to the wall and oil is holding over $150 for over six months. Then I'll believe peak oil doom has arrived.

demand did outstrip supply when the dow was at 14k. when the world economy boomed it needed more energy to feed the economic boom and thats when it outstripped supply creating this $147 per barrel we saw a few months ago, we might not be at peak oil but we sure are close, i dont think the economy will ever be that great again due to the weak growth in conventional oil.