[Graeme]

Are we running out of oil? The world in energy statistics

The amount of proven oil reserves awaiting to be exploited fell last year for the first time in a decade, according to new figures released today. The amount of crude left in the ground was 1.258trn barrels - 3bn less than this time last year.

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years, according to the oil company although those concerned about Peak Oil say we are closer to running out given demand is expected to rise strongly in the short-term.

We've extracted the best bits for you - including the data below, which includes:
• Where each country gets its energy from
• Gas consumption and prices
• Coal reserves

guardian

[Schmuto]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

It's a lie, obviously, but the best part is that people hear "42 years" and think
this:
"Oh, that's fine, call me in 40 years."
Rather than this:
"What? That sounds like a huge problem. We should get on that."

[ki11ercane]

Should have considered this an issue in 1950 when it was "91 years left." As a society we won't even be thinking about it until we're in single digit "months."

42 years. Good that still gives me 10 good years in prepping. KEEP THE PARTY GOING BOYS!

[TheDude]

Brazil
Oil proved reserves, Thousand million barrels

2004 11.2

2005 11.8

2006 12.2

2007 12.6

2008 12.6

Change, 2007-2008 0.1%

Guess it's June again. Good ol' Statistical Review.

[joewp]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

At 1 percent growth per year the resource will last : 35 years
At 2 percent growth per year the resource will last : 31 years
At 3 percent growth per year the resource will last : 28 years
At 4 percent growth per year the resource will last : 25 years
At 5 percent growth per year the resource will last : 23 years
At 6 percent growth per year the resource will last : 22 years
At 7 percent growth per year the resource will last : 20 years
At 8 percent growth per year the resource will last : 19 years
At 9 percent growth per year the resource will last : 18 years
At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

[rangerone314]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

At 1 percent growth per year the resource will last : 35 years
At 2 percent growth per year the resource will last : 31 years
At 3 percent growth per year the resource will last : 28 years
At 4 percent growth per year the resource will last : 25 years
At 5 percent growth per year the resource will last : 23 years
At 6 percent growth per year the resource will last : 22 years
At 7 percent growth per year the resource will last : 20 years
At 8 percent growth per year the resource will last : 19 years
At 9 percent growth per year the resource will last : 18 years
At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

Nice chart, but it overlooks what the price of that resource will be...

[joewp]

Nice chart, but it overlooks what the price of that resource will be...

It's not designed to consider price, only show that "x years at present rates of use" is a misleading statement, because the goal of our economic system is to increase rates of use of natural resources, so the resource can't possible last as long as they're saying.

[Gazzatrone]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

At 1 percent growth per year the resource will last : 35 years
At 2 percent growth per year the resource will last : 31 years
At 3 percent growth per year the resource will last : 28 years
At 4 percent growth per year the resource will last : 25 years
At 5 percent growth per year the resource will last : 23 years
At 6 percent growth per year the resource will last : 22 years
At 7 percent growth per year the resource will last : 20 years
At 8 percent growth per year the resource will last : 19 years
At 9 percent growth per year the resource will last : 18 years
At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

I wonder where the effect of EROEI rates and population growth fit into this?

[eastbay]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

At 1 percent growth per year the resource will last : 35 years
At 2 percent growth per year the resource will last : 31 years
At 3 percent growth per year the resource will last : 28 years
At 4 percent growth per year the resource will last : 25 years
At 5 percent growth per year the resource will last : 23 years
At 6 percent growth per year the resource will last : 22 years
At 7 percent growth per year the resource will last : 20 years
At 8 percent growth per year the resource will last : 19 years
At 9 percent growth per year the resource will last : 18 years
At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

I wonder where the effect of EROEI rates and population growth fit into this?

And don't forget that starting now and with each and every one of those few remaining years, however many there may be, we'll experience increasing oil scarcity meaning higher prices initially. Then, as the years tick by much higher prices will begin arriving along with spot shortages, and finally as the years pass we'll ultimately witness extreme shortages and prices too high for 99% of people to touch.

21 or 42 years? Heh, what does it matter. The fun will start soon and this report helps verify it.

[vtsnowedin]

Well it took 150 years to come up the front side of the oil consumption curve so it will probably take another 150 years to go all the way down the backside to zero. Considering the number of wars we fought with each other going up the good side I expect all of the back side of the curve to be tough times for all.

[hillsidedigger]

Does the total include the Alberta tar sands? If so, the total should be reduced by 200 billion barrels for it will take 200 billion barrels worth of energy to produce 300 billion barrels of oil from the tar sands.

I strongly suspect that certain key places like Saudi Arabia deliberately and dishonestly inflate their reserve estimates.

As well, the quality of the remaining oil will generally continue to decline with no decent and affordable oil to be on world markets after the year 2028 and likely much sooner.

The 'low hanging' and most attractive fruit was picked first so the decline in oil production will take nowhere near as long as the buildup in oil production.

"Well it took 150 years to come up the front side of the oil consumption curve so it will probably take another 150 years to go all the way down the backside to zero." Really?

At the beginning of oil production petroleum actually bubbled to the surface in places like Pennsylvania and Wyoming. At the end of oil production the remaining oil will be under 3 miles of water and 5 miles of ocean floor and with the technology collapse that will happen by the year 2028 (due to the loss of abundant, cheap oil), that deep oil will stay where it is.

[Grautr]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

At 1 percent growth per year the resource will last : 35 years
At 2 percent growth per year the resource will last : 31 years
At 3 percent growth per year the resource will last : 28 years
At 4 percent growth per year the resource will last : 25 years
At 5 percent growth per year the resource will last : 23 years
At 6 percent growth per year the resource will last : 22 years
At 7 percent growth per year the resource will last : 20 years
At 8 percent growth per year the resource will last : 19 years
At 9 percent growth per year the resource will last : 18 years
At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

Nice chart, but it overlooks what the price of that resource will be...

And also the quality of that oil. The sludge they will be sucking up in 20 years time probably wont be going very far up the cat cracker

[vtsnowedin]

Does the total include the Alberta tar sands? If so, the total should be reduced by 200 billion barrels for it will take 200 billion barrels worth of energy to produce 300 billion barrels of oil from the tar sands.

I strongly suspect that certain key places like Saudi Arabia deliberately and dishonestly inflate their reserve estimates.

As well, the quality of the remaining oil will generally continue to decline with no decent and affordable oil to be on world markets after the year 2028 and likely much sooner.

The 'low hanging' and most attractive fruit was picked first so the decline in oil production will take nowhere near as long as the buildup in oil production.

"Well it took 150 years to come up the front side of the oil consumption curve so it will probably take another 150 years to go all the way down the backside to zero." Really?

At the beginning of oil production petroleum actually bubbled to the surface in places like Pennsylvania and Wyoming. At the end of oil production the remaining oil will be under 3 miles of water and 5 miles of ocean floor and with the technology collapse that will happen by the year 2028 (due to the loss of abundant, cheap oil), that deep oil will stay where it is.

Yes really!! Scarcity will lead to high prices which will drop demand and the resultant increase in the price and availability of food will in all probability lead to a drop in world population numbers to below that of 1859 further dropping demand. That last barrel of oil will be brought in from the center of Antarctia or the bottom of some deep ocean basin and cost over a thousand dollars in todays dollars. It will be used for some then exotic petrochemicals that they havent found a good substitute for.

[TheDude]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

At 1 percent growth per year the resource will last : 35 years
At 2 percent growth per year the resource will last : 31 years
At 3 percent growth per year the resource will last : 28 years
At 4 percent growth per year the resource will last : 25 years
At 5 percent growth per year the resource will last : 23 years
At 6 percent growth per year the resource will last : 22 years
At 7 percent growth per year the resource will last : 20 years
At 8 percent growth per year the resource will last : 19 years
At 9 percent growth per year the resource will last : 18 years
At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

Actually the only time in their data world consumption has grown above 8%/year was 1968-1970. 80-83 was -3.89% -3.09% -2.83% -0.50%, and this recession is more severe, suggesting demand will be constrained that much more this time - and not the way it was done then, given that automakers were in fine fettle then and that there was low-hanging fruit to be picked, i.e., replacement of fuel oil in electrical generation.

[3rensho]

Well it took 150 years to come up the front side of the oil consumption curve so it will probably take another 150 years to go all the way down the backside to zero. Considering the number of wars we fought with each other going up the good side I expect all of the back side of the curve to be tough times for all.

That implies a symmetric curve, which it most certainly will not be.

[VMarcHart]

At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

Although in theory we could dramatically improve oil usage efficiency --fat chance--, and given 10% is the sought annual return/growth on a typical investment, 17 years is not a far fetched idea.

[KevO]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years,

At 1 percent growth per year the resource will last : 35 years
At 2 percent growth per year the resource will last : 31 years
At 3 percent growth per year the resource will last : 28 years
At 4 percent growth per year the resource will last : 25 years
At 5 percent growth per year the resource will last : 23 years
At 6 percent growth per year the resource will last : 22 years
At 7 percent growth per year the resource will last : 20 years
At 8 percent growth per year the resource will last : 19 years
At 9 percent growth per year the resource will last : 18 years
At 10 percent growth per year the resource will last : 17 years

I wonder where the effect of EROEI rates and population growth fit into this?

And don't forget that starting now and with each and every one of those few remaining years, however many there may be, we'll experience increasing oil scarcity meaning higher prices initially. Then, as the years tick by much higher prices will begin arriving along with spot shortages, and finally as the years pass we'll ultimately witness extreme shortages and prices too high for 99% of people to touch.

21 or 42 years? Heh, what does it matter. The fun will start soon and this report helps verify it.

but when is the actual peak? It's not about when it's all gone but when we need/use more than we can get. Isn't it?

[AirlinePilot]

but when is the actual peak? It's not about when it's all gone but when we need/use more than we can get. Isn't it?

17 years is bad enough, but in answer to your question.....

Yup.

[jedrider]

At today's rate of use however there is still enough oil to last the next 42 years

42?? Isn't that how many reindeer were left on that island after the die-off? I don't like that number

We appear to be the victim of our own success: The faster we suck up the oil, the more compact the peakoil curve becomes in the time dimension.

[GHung]

Linear thinking just won't work here. As an engineer and large systems analyst I know that complex systems fail catastrophically. The more complex the system the more severe the ultimate failure. Our tangled globalweb of energy, economics, social systems, etc. is very complex.

About reductions in population due to starvation: really think billions of people are going to to just sit there and starve? I tend to agree with some of what was said years ago on http://www.dieoff.org. A lot of people are going to have to die to solve this problem.