[pup55]

http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6.7NWiQ5wGw

The 2009 BP Review of World Energy has been released. The stat nerds among us are delighted to see this every year, because it gives us some raw materials for statistical analysis of the current situation every year, and a chance to look at some of the trends and potential issues.

Here are a couple of highlights:
Global production increased between 2007 and 2008: The BP Review production number is frequently used to settle bets on the issue of whether or not PO has occurred.... so this suggests we are at the very least on a plateau. Despite the hard times, global consumption dereased by less than 1%

US oil consumption decreased 6.4% last year, while production decreased by 1.8%. This is a half empty/half full situation that basically says that an additional 1.2 mbpd was put onto the market.... this was mainly consumed by the people in the former soviet union, who used 1.5% more, and the emerging nations, which used an additional 3%. We also figure a lot of this oil went into inventory....

Mexico: We had been watching this as an important indicator of whether or not we are screwed: Their production declined 9% last year, and their consumption, despite the recession, increased by .5%, delaying for a year or so the point at which they will become a net importer.... At the current rates of decline and consumption increase, this event should occur in roughly 2012....

Iran: When we first started analyzing these reports in 2004 Iran was a big question mark.... their oil industry had declined, and their consumption was increasing at a dramatic rate in such a way as to put them on a trajectory to become a net importer of oil between now and 2020.... However in the last couple of years, their consumption growth has slowed down, this year it is only about 2%, versus 6% or something like it was a couple of years ago, and their production is doing much better, which suggests that the crossover event (export land, if you will) will not occur for a long time.... as long as they can continue to keep their fields pumping at 4 mbpd that is....

Saudi: Their production increased by 4% to 10.8 mbpd.....So many questions....

Russia: Their production declined by .8%, but their consumption increased by 3%... There is enough of a gap between production and consumption over there that it is a similar situation.... as long as they can keep their fields pumping at these levels, the crossover event for them will be into the distant future....

Brazil: Their production increased by 3.6%, which is among the most impressive globally, but their consumption increased by 5.3%..... They already consume more than they produce...

China: Despite the recession/depression, their consumption increased by 3.3%, double the rate of their production increase, and if the US continues to decline, China will be the biggest consumer of oil in the 2017 or 2018 time frame....

UK production down 6.3%.... Norway down 4%... the North Sea depletes...

A few places, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Congo, and Iraq managed to increase production just enough to keep the game going for another year.....since 2006 we are getting an additional 400,000 barrels per day out of Iraq.... that is basically the world petroleum balance at this point, and without it we would have been flat globally since then.....In fact, if you look at the two dozen or so nations that were able to increase production between 2007 and 2008..... nearly half of the increase in production (in absolute barrels per day) came from three countries: Iraq, Saudi and Qatar.....1.675 mbpd total, .817 for just those three countries.....

[AirlinePilot]

Global production increased between 2007 and 2008: The BP Review production number is frequently used to settle bets on the issue of whether or not PO has occurred.... so this suggests we are at the very least on a plateau. Despite the hard times, global consumption decreased by less than 1%

This one particular tidbit is all I need to see. The idiots in the MSM have not a clue. They scream almost daily about cratered demand and nothing could be further from the truth.

This entire debate is not about US stockpiles or demand its about the global use of a finite resource. Analyzing it using country based estimates outside of a global context is a fools errand.