The data used by King Hubbert and the majority of subsequent investigators to forecast future oil supply is essentially historical field-size data with a touch of “growth to known.” While suffering from the usual inconsistencies of such data, the Hubbert method provided a prediction of “peak” oil in the US correct in time but somewhat off in volume.8 The extrapolation to the future using symmetry to predict decline, however, was not nearly as close in time or volume. What the Hubbert model does not accommodate well is the impact of variables such as oil price and the pace of development, which results in a wide range of uncertainty, making it inadequate as a tool to plan the transition from oil.
Complicating the picture is the necessity of dealing with a nonunique number for future production volumes rather than “snapshot” quantities related to a specific date and economic conditions existing at that time. The only time a reserves value is a unique number is when the field is abandoned and the wells are plugged. And, even then, it can return to life with advances in technology and improvements in economics.
The authors propose that industry and government cooperate by the formal establishment of a global body mandated to:
* Establish a library that minimally collects primary data (logs, seismic data, production histories) for the 321 largest fields.
* Acquire the necessary expertise to validate the interpretation of the data and create the static and dynamic models.
* Issue forecasts of the production of the fields in the database, and extend the forecast to total global capacity.
* Periodically update the models and issue updates to the forecast.
* Issue price expectations in coordination with other similar bodies, such as IEA and the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI).
This proposal requires industry and producing countries to contribute financing and data to the library. Much of the data already is available, but this is an offer of encouragement to those countries who have not released the data to do so.
Pretty auspicious notice imo.
