[Schmuto]

The evolution of this site has, for me, tracked Patrick.net, which was one of the first, if not the first, site to call "housing bubble."

Patrick.net was the site that changed my life.

Living like any other DSE in a crowded, disgusting suburb, I stumble upon patrick.net.

I read it. I believe it. I start acting on it.

Then I join - we hash out the housing bubble ad infinitum. Ad nauseum.

This was back in late 04ish.

We hashed out the issues for 2 years before the peak and crash became apparent. Then it was dead. There was no point to it anymore. It was like getting together with a bunch of people to watch the sun come up at the edge of the Grand Canyon. You wait, you wait, it comes up. You marvel. You're done.

Same thing with the housing market. We all knew we were right - the numbers were undeniable - it was just about when it was going to happen. Now, I can't even find a couple of people posting there who were posting back when we were the avant garde.

In 06, through a connection at Patrick.net, I get to LATOC. A while later I start posting here.

This site is now in the phase I'd call - "we've been holding our breath for 2 years or more now." Depending on when you arrived, of course.

Lots of casualties - MQ, Sh, RE, Rocc - others. The breath holding is taking its toll. Most of what there is to discuss has already been discussed - if you've been here for more than a year, you know . . .
Bakken is fools gold, we've been flat for 5 years, oil has no replacement, and so on . . . .

And very little new information will be available in the next 12 months, barring an admission of peak from a major player.

What is available is price data and monthly production data. The critical data - how much oil OPEC countries can produce - is veiled and will remain veiled.

So we're like an old married couple. I get the Salisbury steak, you get the salmon. I sleep on the right side of the bed, you on the left. I cut the grass every Thor'sday, you plant calla Lilly bulbs in the spring. We're waiting for something.

And there will be nothing new to discuss here until that something happens.

Just like at Patrick.net, we are fixed on the price of oil, because, like housing, the price is what tells you that there is a bubble (RE) or a dearth (CL).

That's it. Random thought of the day.

I want a divorce.

[AgentR]

Nah, its the gas price people watch and know. They don't know from barrel to kegger.

I think $3 scares people.
$5 brings the server down.

[Maddog78]

It's interesting what you had to say about Patrick.net.
I'm also currently posting on a Vancouver, BC real estate forum.
We haven't really had a crash happen in Vancouver. Down %15 last fall but back up %5 already this spring.
There are a few die hard bulls who thing it is still up, up and away for RE there.
A few more bears who think it has to and will drop.
It should be noted our benchmark SFH price is over $800,000 and our wages are only just slightly above the Canadian average, so it is all out of whack as far as affordability and sustainability, imo.
Because a real crash hasn't happened there the board is still pretty active.

[Schmuto]

Nah, its the gas price people watch and know.

Them, not us.

They watch the shriveling leaves and wonder what is the cause.

We see the cloudless sky and know we run short of water.

[35Kas]

I have learned all I could. (Ok, not really, but mostly, about peak oil)

Now I check this every now and then looking for the news flashes.

I can't wait when the desperate people come wail here. I want to see the frenzy, the filthy name calling and reality denying debates, and I will join the debates and press on their festering blisters, because I want those people to know this has been know for a long time coming and they need to be very angry and offended to do something about it.

[mos6507]

I have learned all I could. (Ok, not really, but mostly, about peak oil)

Now I check this every now and then looking for the news flashes.

I can't wait when the desperate people come wail here. I want to see the frenzy, the filthy name calling and reality denying debates, and I will join the debates and press on their festering blisters, because I want those people to know this has been know for a long time coming and they need to be very angry and offended to do something about it.

I think that's Monte's modus operandi. Monte I think has been a doomer for at least 20 years.

[Schmuto]

I have learned all I could. (Ok, not really, but mostly, about peak oil)

Now I check this every now and then looking for the news flashes.

I can't wait when the desperate people come wail here. I want to see the frenzy, the filthy name calling and reality denying debates, and I will join the debates and press on their festering blisters, because I want those people to know this has been know for a long time coming and they need to be very angry and offended to do something about it.

That is awesome.