[Ayoob]

How close are you to being set up for the Big Rollover? It looks like it might be this year that we feel the bite. It might be next year, but I'm not holding out for 2012 anymore. When we have a real shortage of gas... and it could be by the end of 09 or the middle of 2010...

Some of us have been aware of peak oil and have been working on personal mitigation strategies for quite some time. Some of us just for a few years, some for a few months. For me it's been about five years or so. I've done what I could, or what I cared to do, whatever you want to call it.

I have a job that's as depression-proof as I could possibly get, and my girl is preparing to retire from the corporate rat race to focus on family matters and turning a garden into a food supply. There's water all over the friggin place around here. I have a couple of bikes, a hobby/side job that will be fun and practical, lots of sturdy shoes and gear for the weather, I have my guns and ammo and rice, all that stuff.

And I still had time and money to go out and enjoy life at the top of the rollercoaster.

I'm not sure how much time there is left to prepare for the inevitable. Maybe it's a year or two. After that, you have whatever you have. You're as mobile, healthy, young, and flexible as you're ever going to be. You have whatever tools and materials you have at hand, your friends are whoever they are and you're probably not going to make anymore until it's all over.

Are you where you want to be? If not, why not? What are you missing, and what are you doing right now to make up the difference?

[Schmuto]

Good assessment Ayoob.

I think you're right - 2 years or less. 3 years, at this point, would be a gift.

I'm as good as imuh gunna bee, and I feel lucky to be in a position to know what's coming.

[cipi604]

What are you missing, and what are you doing right now to make up the difference?

Living the life to the full. Prepping your mind is more important than prepping stuff around you.

Two to three years until we're in the middle of fuel shortages sounds logic at this point. It's going to take a while.

The most interesting part is to watch the sheeple going Boom!

[PrestonSturges]

Except for paying off the mortgage......

[bodigami]

i still don't have a horse, but i am used to walking...

[thuja]

Ready for what?

The next thing that will happen is the "recovery" which will be an uptick in the market (happening), and then a slowdown in jobs lost and a leveling of unemployment. At that point it will take years before jobs start being created again and unemployment ticks up. At the same time, any recovery will come up against a limit to max fuel production and thus high fuel prices again. This means that there won't be a true recovery- just an ongoing decade long "malaise" of high unemployment and high fuel prices.

Shortages? Doubtful for about 6-10 years and perhaps longer...why? Because high fuel prices and tremendous debt will slam us back into a heavy recession again. Then, more unemplyment, bankruptcy, foreclosure, etc.

That's why the most important thing you need to do to prepare is to try and insure cash flow. Be one of the 60--80 % who have a job over the next 20 years. That will be the name of the game. Because if you don't have a job, the rest of it (rainwater catchment, chickens, solar panels) won't matter.

[AgentR]

Echo above. Ready for what? It seems clear enough to me that the core problem is that the civil systems in our world are becoming unstable; and that means that we can not know WHAT to prepare for.

With that in mind, I don't try to be prepared for any particular eventuality; but rather keep myself positioned such that the various likely possibilities, both near and long term, do not present a significant terminal risk.

I am prepared to adapt.

[Maddog78]

I'm debt free.
That should cover most contingencies over the next several years.

[davep]

I'm debt-free, have a doomstead (10 acres) and a job far away with a rented apartment. I've got guns and a veggie garden. I'm planting chestnuts, walnuts, fruit trees etc.

My next door neighbour supplies me with wood for my new 80% efficient fireplace. We trade veggies for eggs etc.

I'm looking at changing careers to go into farming in the near future. There is risk in that because I may have to go into debt. But I'm hoping my long term oil option calls are going to help in that regard.

And my wife thinks I'm mad.

[Jellric]

I learned about peak oil four years ago. Unfortunately I don't have a full time job and have barely been able to meet my expenses so my preparation has mainly consisted of information-gathering.

I can't tell you how maddening it is to be one of the comparatively few who know something big is coming yet being unable to take full advantage of that knowledge.

I feel that the time is getting close and yesterday it really hit me that I need to dramatically step up my preps as I believe the second phase of the collapse is imminent. (I am looking for the dollar to accelerate its collapse soon).

My next step will be organizing the information I've gathered so that I can produce a working plan for collapse as well as backup plans of course. I need to stay light and flexible which luckily for me will be easy as I don't own a hell of a lot of stuff. A man named Clapton once told me, "Travelin' light is the only way to fly."

One thing that peak oil got me to do was become a beekeeper. I have several gallons of honey ready for extraction that I can sell for $5/lb within days. I will then immediately spend most of that on silver coins to increase my small supply. I will breathe a little easier when that happens.

If hyperinflation hits I can use my silver to buy my supplies. Of course I would prefer to buy them now but my financial situation compels me to take advantage of the leverage offered at that time. I have to be ready to go with a prioritized list of supplies and get them quickly. So my next step is creating that list.

I would encourage everyone who has up until now treated peak oil as an intellectual exercise to take action now and step up your preparations.

The era of complacency is officially over.

[sittinguy]

This is the dead cat bounce.

I woke up 3 years ago, and I have done a pretty good job of preparing. Paid off the house on 4-20 I'm debt free, but stay broke as hell doing it. have a little food stash, and the means to protect it.

My final order from emergency essentials (until I see any SHTF) is on the way.

I'm a little surprised to see some here thinking that we are going to have a real recovery from here. HOW?

huge deficits
huge state deficits (alot of state deficits are set to triple next year)
unemployment
waste
pissed offness spreading (waking people)
looming wars
dollar dump
inflation
hyperinflation

I'm as doomerish as ever now. I'm going to use this time to continue preparing for what i believe in what will happen.

Good post, and NO, I don't feel quit ready, but the big stuff is done. I don't have a doomstead or a bunker, But I could hang around the house for a few months.

[PonyBoy78]

Not set yet. I bought the land last year, and am about 1.5 years away from being totally debt-free. After that, I build my home.

My bet behind this plan is that things will hold-together for a few more years. My timeline:
- the current recession (with accompanying reduction in demand)
- slight, short-lived, fake rebound (with uptick in demand bumping against oil production limits)
- by deeper recession (again, demand destruction)
- very, very slight rebound
- slow realization by the general population that things aren't going to get better again

I'm hoping that things are duct-taped together through 2013. I purposely chose my career field (medical) in the hopes that it would keep me employed for as long as possible. My main race-against-time issue is to see that my house is built (and stocked) while the materials are still readily available.

[davep]

My main race-against-time issue is to see that my house is built (and stocked) while the materials are still readily available.

You may want to look into straw bale design with clay thermal mass and lime render. It's about as cheap as it gets and is hugely efficient for insulation in winter, dephasing heat in summer and allowing the house to breathe without mechanical ventilation.

Coupled with passive solar design, you're onto a winner for very little cash.

[Caffeine]

I don't have the $$$ to purchase remote, arable land, unfortunately. Maybe if I win the lottery.

[Cog]

I continue to pay down debt as rapidly as possible, expand my little garden in suburbia, and store food. As long as local and state governments continue to fund infrastructure projects like sewers and bridges, I should be able to continue to work. When that stops, I'll be joining the ranks of the unemployed. With my savings, I could do a year without working. Past that my only option is to move in with my father-in-law.

I am looking at land now for doomstead purposes. 10 acres is my minimum goal but I will buy more if I can find it.

[Jellric]

I don't have the $$$ to purchase remote, arable land, unfortunately. Maybe if I win the lottery.

Buy precious metals now while they are cheap and when hyperinflation hits you should be able to buy some land.

[Ayoob]

Echo above. Ready for what? It seems clear enough to me that the core problem is that the civil systems in our world are becoming unstable; and that means that we can not know WHAT to prepare for.

With that in mind, I don't try to be prepared for any particular eventuality; but rather keep myself positioned such that the various likely possibilities, both near and long term, do not present a significant terminal risk.

I am prepared to adapt.

Interesting.

I think it's pretty obvious what to prepare for. A disruption in the supply of goods and the availability of services. Right? My solution has been to move to an area that is abundant in the resources I want to have available, a low population, and which allows the personal ownership and carry of guns.

To deal with a decreased flow of goods I stockpile and learn to make what I want. It's pretty cheap to load up on sacks of rice, tanks of propane, jars of multivitamins, canning supplies, stuff like that.

For you guys who talk about preparing your minds and nothing else, I don't get it. I prepared my mind, and then my prepared mind told my ass to get moving or I was going to be without. What's your mind telling you?

[davep]

For you guys who talk about preparing your minds and nothing else, I don't get it. I prepared my mind, and then my prepared mind told my ass to get moving or I was going to be without. What's your mind telling you?

My mind told me to get off the real-estate roller coaster in 2006 and find a doomstead. It told me to learn how to farm and how to shoot.

It told me to quit my job so I could concentrate on these objectives.

Then when the money started running out, it told me to drive over 1000km every weekend to ensure I can get as much cash as possible while I still can. I've lived in four different countries over the past three years.

I've spent the last eighteen months doing this infernal commute and will probably do it for another 30 months. I then may be in a position to relax financially while I make a go at farming.

This whole process took a lot of balls with a family in tow. Anyone who tells me I'm just lucky to be able to own my own land will be strangled

[AgentR]

I am prepared to adapt.

For you guys who talk about preparing your minds and nothing else, I don't get it.

Being prepared to adapt is not a mental task. It is resource allocation.

You bring up the notion of a disruption of goods and services, and it is indeed one particular possible outcome. So lets take two paths and examine them... 1st, quit the good paying skilled job, move to the farm now, start planting... 2nd, keep the job, leave the land in good condition, but don't move there or farm. 2015 roles around... no doom has arrived. Tax collector has arrived and has assessed you $8,000 in property taxes. In the 2nd conditional, its an annoying amount, but nothing that will make or break you. In the first conditional, you're done. pack your bags, cause you can either mortgage the property to pay, and then default, or sell and bail on your preps.

By committing a large portion of your resources to one possible solution to one possible doom, you can leave yourself more vulnerable, not less.

What's your mind telling you?

Have the financial and physical tools available to enable adaptation as circumstances deteriorate.

I am prepared to bail tomorrow.... I am prepared to remain an unnoticed "cog in the machine" for a couple decades. I always ask the question... how does this action effect my family's chances for survival if tomorrow is teotwawki; how does this action effect my family's chances for survival if teotwawki is thirty years from tomorrow?

You can simplify this if you really want individual, specific plans in a chaotic world.
Plan for 6 days.
Plan for 6 months.
Plan for 6 years.

Personally, I feel no specific plan can survive contact with the real world.

[davep]

Personally, I feel no specific plan can survive contact with the real world.

That's just a cop-out. A plan that enables self-sufficiency, defence (within limits) and relative affluence, coupled with a strong local community has a far better chance of succeeding than some nebulous plan that exists solely in your head (not that you advocate this). I guess it all depends how committed you are and what resources you have at your disposal.