[Outcast_Searcher]

It is astounding to me that with all the evidence that there is a really big problem coming, and most likely as soon as the world economy recovers even moderately - that there is so little interest in high mileage hybrids.

I'm definitely going to make a 3rd gen Prius my next car. For a single person who drives 90% of the miles in city traffic, it is EMINENTLY sensible for the planet/society, and based on my 5-10 year forecast of gasoline prices, will make plenty of economic sense for the life of the car. (Even if I'm wrong and gas prices don't rise much - I'm willing to pay a few bucks to help the planet and society a bit).

I will basically triple my city mileage and only give up a little space. From the reviews I've read Toyota has now managed to eliminate most of the annoying quirks about the Prius, and improved the power significantly. (I'm mainly waiting a year or two to let Toyota work out any new-model issues, since this generation was just released).

But VERY few people seem interested in this. In fact, many data points I've seen say that people went RIGHT back to buying massive cars/SUV's as soon as gas prices got back under about $2.50.

To me, this behavior is the scariest part of this mess. People are in total denial. Government (at least in this country) won't lead if they think it will make the voters mad, so we do little aside from token programs. Meanwhile the problem looms and our time to adapt dwindles.

And even if folks don't want a car like this for toting the family around - how about as the 2nd car for the family? Then for all the simple errands, for one person driving to work, etc. at least THOSE miles would be relatively efficient.

Am I missing something? Are people just that stupid - or are the economics of a $22,000ish Prius (assuming no tax credits) far worse than I am assuming?

[mattduke]

Prius
http://clubs.ccsu.edu/recorder/editoria ... NewsID=188

[mos6507]

Here you go.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Matt, I appreciate the input, but the editorial seems so obviously slanted to me that I now find the entire thing suspect.

If true about the Nickel part, that is really nasty - but the goal is to soon have hybrids move from nickel-hydride batteries to Lithion-Ion batteries, so the point could soon be moot (or worse, I suppose depending on what producing Lithium batteries does).

For one thing, assuming a GM product with (from what I've seen) pretty typically terrible quality reviews will get 3 times the lifespan of a Toyota model with consistently outstanding quality ratings since 2002 - is just LUDICROUS. How does the author of that opinion piece expect to have ANY credibility making assumptions like that? (except with the buy-America ignore all facts crowd)?

(If he's talking about having to likely replace the battery of the Prius at 100K miles - fine, but that should be clearly stated).

Second, I love these scenarios where they whine about how long it takes to pay for the energy savings, but don't make a clear statement about fuel prices. Since no one can know future oil prices, except to make the educated guess they will be volatile and trend up LONG TERM) - assuming an X year payback is more likely rooted in a political agenda than any search for truth. Besides, as I stated in my post, I don't CARE about the payback period.

Oh, and complaining about the mileage of a Prius (even 2nd gen) while extolling the virtues of a Hummer is so absurd that it doesn't require comment.


This general discussion comes to the root of what I think much of the problem is though - it is all VERY complicated. Trying to figure out what the reality is for things like how big our oil reserves actually are - how much environmental damage building X vs Y actually causes, etc. is TOUGH, because there are so many viewpoints from folks with so many axes to grind. The world is so complex that only relative experts are likely to be able to dig to the core truth for very many X's or Y's.

So, again, I appreciate the input and I'll do some more research -- but I strongly suspect there is a bunch of F.U.D. going on here by folks with a vested interest in gas guzzlers. (NOT you, but the authors of opinion pieces such as you cited).

[Plantagenet]

Someone who buys a Prius is symbolically signalling that he cares about the environment.

It doesn't matter how much damage the Prius actually does to the environment---all that matters is the symbolism of the thing.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Well, I was curious, so I did some research via links from Google.

1). The nickle mine in question had the bad pictures from the 70's, before hybrids were even made. Things are much better there now.

2). Under 1% of the nickle mined there was used for the Prius. After the first generation, the batteries are recycled, reusing about 95% of the materials.

3). My thoughts on the likely real environmental costs and reliability for the Hummer were confirmed - the Hummer is much much worse, as logic would make one think.

4). The article in question was from a college kid in CONN for a college newspaper.

5). The CNW outfit cited is a highly biased marketing firm hoping to score points to sell big American cars.

. . .

I thought this was the MODERATE forum, the one where folks thought there is some hope if we actually try to work on the problem. Did I miss something?

For me, the idea of a hybrid is good because you get serious fuel savings AND can avoid driving a tiny tin can for a car (risking getting crushed in the process).

. . .

So is the problem that folks assume that EVERYONE who considers hybrid technology a good intermediate step to forestalling the oil crunch a vain idiot who is only seeking attention?

If you do think that, in my case, you're way off. I'm 50 and no longer trying to impress anyone. I buy all my clothes at Walmart since they're cheap and wear like Iron. I haven't owned a comb in maybe 15 years and I'm going bald. I shave only when it itches too much. I'm a libertarian. I'm ugly. etc. etc. So the LAST thing on my agenda is trying to impress people or conform to popular norms.

I had hoped to actually learn something from moderate minded folks about why hybrids are so scorned, yet seem so logical -- that's it.

I picked the Prius because it's cheap (I'm a cheapskate too) it gets the best city MPG of any car classed as a midsize car (3rd gen), historically, it is extremely reliable (which cheapskates really like), and with the 3rd gen it would appear that Toyota has managed to eliminate many of the annoying compromises driving a hybrid entails.

[Tanada]

Well, I was curious, so I did some research via links from Google.

1). The nickle mine in question had the bad pictures from the 70's, before hybrids were even made. Things are much better there now.

2). Under 1% of the nickle mined there was used for the Prius. After the first generation, the batteries are recycled, reusing about 95% of the materials.

3). My thoughts on the likely real environmental costs and reliability for the Hummer were confirmed - the Hummer is much much worse, as logic would make one think.

4). The article in question was from a college kid in CONN for a college newspaper.

5). The CNW outfit cited is a highly biased marketing firm hoping to score points to sell big American cars.

. . .

I thought this was the MODERATE forum, the one where folks thought there is some hope if we actually try to work on the problem. Did I miss something?

For me, the idea of a hybrid is good because you get serious fuel savings AND can avoid driving a tiny tin can for a car (risking getting crushed in the process).

. . .

So is the problem that folks assume that EVERYONE who considers hybrid technology a good intermediate step to forestalling the oil crunch a vain idiot who is only seeking attention?

If you do think that, in my case, you're way off. I'm 50 and no longer trying to impress anyone. I buy all my clothes at Walmart since they're cheap and wear like Iron. I haven't owned a comb in maybe 15 years and I'm going bald. I shave only when it itches too much. I'm a libertarian. I'm ugly. etc. etc. So the LAST thing on my agenda is trying to impress people or conform to popular norms.

I had hoped to actually learn something from moderate minded folks about why hybrids are so scorned, yet seem so logical -- that's it.

I picked the Prius because it's cheap (I'm a cheapskate too) it gets the best city MPG of any car classed as a midsize car (3rd gen), historically, it is extremely reliable (which cheapskates really like), and with the 3rd gen it would appear that Toyota has managed to eliminate many of the annoying compromises driving a hybrid entails.

Slow down, no need to dive off the deep end into despair because you didn't get any positive answers in the first few hours after you posted.

I really like the concept of a Hybrid and have wanted one for years, but I did my own cost-benefit analysis and was not able to justify the costs. For one thing my "commute" is short by most people's standards, under 10 miles. For another except visiting relatives once a week I am pretty much a home-body, I used to cruise around when I was a teenager and in college but that was a long time ago. Instead I drive an old Honda Civic that gets 30 mpg in the mixture of driving I do, if gasoline goes high enough to make a Hybrid viable for me I will be walking because I couldn't afford to drive in that case.

I would like to see someone take a Prius and strip out the gasoline engine/tank, replace them with the same weight of batteries and give me a decent range electric vehicle. I doubt that is going to happen and if it did it would still be pricey.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Planta, your demand curve shift to the right when the oil price increases is EXACTLY the economic shift microeconomic theory would predict.

This would seem to directly contradict your assertion that the motive is purely symbolic, unless you are assuming that the buyers just believe they'll get more attention in a hybrid when fuel prices rise.

I just don't see how rational people can assume they can credibly imply something like "All Prius drivers are seeking attention (via symbolism) vs. trying to help solve the problem" any more than any other unreasonable stereotype (like about races, creeds, etc).

Is the problem more basic? Do the folks on this site resent anyone who tries to reduce the overall demand for crude oil, as what they really want is to profit from increasing oil prices?

If so, that's fine - I'm just trying to understand the resistance / assumptions.

With 30 billion barrels a year consumed, it takes a LOT of change to make a meaningful dent, BTW. Not to mention little issues like China and India...

[Schmuto]

I've written about this before, but I'll give the Schmuto Shorts version here:

I deplore people who drive Piouses. I deplore them worse than people who drive Hummers. At least the people who drive hummers know completely well that they're douchebags - the Pious drivers have no idea.

So when I see the Hummer driver pull up, I can see the smirk and I know that the dude is thinking, "yeah, that's right, 6 miles to the gallon - I'm a complete douchebag."

The Pious driver, however, has the same smirk, but he's thinking, "yeah, that's right, I care more than you do."

The Toyota Pious is the ultimate driving machine for the idiot limousine liberal.

It's got all the necessary features.

It's expensive.
It's gas mileage is only marginally better than that of a Honda Fit.
It's loud, in order to better broadcast the user's do-goodiness.
The damage done to the earth to put the thing together is well hidden.

At about 28 grand, which is about 15k over a basic 40mpg sedan/hatchback, you're talking about a 200 gallon difference a year for a 12k total ride. At 6 bucks a gallon, that's 1,200 a year. So your repayment plan is over 13 years. At 6 bucks a gallon. Not including more expensive repairs.

Hybrids are a scam.

If you were really interested in saving the earth, you'd stop driving.

[kjmclark]

Mos gave you most of the answer. For most people, a car makes a fashion/status statement. It's only a fairly small percentage that buy cars/trucks just for transportation. For most of the people who don't buy hybrids, a Prius doesn't make the statement they want to make.

The statement for a Prius: I care about the environment, but not enough to take transit, live and work close together, or bike. I have some money, but not enough for something really expensive. I am not interested in being attractive to members of the opposite sex.

Also, if you give it a lot of thought, you'll realize that the best fit for hybrid drive trains are mail and garbage trucks. They have the very frequent stop/start duty cycles that hybrids are really good for. (Isn't it funny that there aren't many hybrid mail or garbage trucks?) Most people do more expressway driving than that, and hybrids aren't any better for expressway miles. I talked my mom out of buying one, since 90% of her miles are long-distance trips to see the grandkids.

Let's go through my family's vehicle choices for comparison.

1. Two bicycles. My wife and I both bike to work. We really do care about the environment, and bought a house close to lots of jobs and chose jobs close enough to bike to work. We're not concerned about other people's ideas of status. We're both a hell of a lot sexier than most people sitting in their "sexy" boxes, since we get a good amount of exercise. The bikes are most of our in-town miles. And we have two kids.

2. 98 Subaru wagon. Bought it for $3,500. The minimum space we need to carry everyone at once (including the 80lb dog). 28mpg on the expressway, 7,000 miles per year, most of them expressway. Fashion statement is that we're not concerned about other people's ideas of status and don't really care about looking sexy. AWD, so we can get to our land 22 miles away in the winter.

3. 96 Ford ranger pickup. Bought it for $2,000. Excellent 4wd to get us to our land in all seasons. 18mpg highway, but will do better when I get fifth gear fixed. Six months after we bought it, we rolled over our first thousand miles on it, so 2k per year. Fashion statement is that we're not concerned about other people's ideas of status and don't really care about looking sexy.

So, 8 years or so after someone comes out with an AWD station wagon hybrid, I'll think about it. Until then, hybrids don't make sense for my family, since our in-town vehicles already get around 600mpg, hybrids are too small to be usable for us right now, and they don't have many AWD hybrids. Gas prices at $10 per gallon? No problem, we don't buy that much gas to begin with.

[3aidlillahi]

From Matt's link:

Through a study by CNW Marketing called “Dust to Dust,” the total combined energy is taken from all the electrical, fuel, transportation, materials (metal, plastic, etc) and hundreds of other factors over the expected lifetime of a vehicle. The Prius costs an average of $3.25 per mile driven over a lifetime of 100,000 miles - the expected lifespan of the Hybrid.

The Hummer, on the other hand, costs a more fiscal $1.95 per mile to put on the road over an expected lifetime of 300,000 miles. That means the Hummer will last three times longer than a Prius and use less combined energy doing it.

So, if you are really an environmentalist - ditch the Prius. Instead, buy one of the most economical cars available - a Toyota Scion xB. The Scion only costs a paltry $0.48 per mile to put on the road. If you are still obsessed over gas mileage - buy a Chevy Aveo and fix that lead foot.

A Prius costs $3.25 per mile over 100,000 miles. That means this guy is saying a Prius, in the end, costs $325,000 and a Hummer costs about $600,000. And he expects us to take him seriously? A Prius costs about $25,000. So the rest must cost $300,000? It gets about 50 mpg so over 100,000 miles, that's 2,000 gallons at about $3/gallon, lets say, which is then $6,000. Is he really expecting to spend $294,000 on repairs and insurance? The Hummer would be around $500,000 for all of that.

That article is a joke.

That's not even to mention that he's using energy and dollars as equivalents.

If you were really interested in saving the earth, you'd stop driving.

Whenever a Hybrid passes me while on my bike, I always think to myself that I'm driving the real hybrid. I also very rarely eat meat and I'm transitioning to local organic as well.

[mattduke]

Purchasing a Prius is akin to giving the town drunk your sandwich every day. Now that he doesn't need to buy as much food, he can increase his expenditures on alcohol. Your Prius will merely enable somebody to fill up his SUV a little bit more. My vehicle gets 70mpg/city, and cost me $2800. That leaves me $19000 to invest in precious metals and the fuel companies you will pay to fill up your fossil-fueled Prius. Now that's economic.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Mattduke said:

My vehicle gets 70mpg/city, and cost me $2800.

Well that's nice Matt. Since you don't mention that it's a car, and I know of no car that gets such mileage (nor most motorcycles) are you driving a scooter or something similar?

If you are driving a real car (not a tin can) that actually gets 70 mpg real-world in the city - I'd love to know what it is!

Otherwise, how will that vehicle do in a 35 mph crash against an SUV? Does that vehicle keep you warm in the winter or dry in the rain? Can you carry several bags of groceries or a hundred pound bulky object in that vehicle? How many passengers will that vehicle carry safely? Can that vehicle travel at normal street speeds (35 mph up a hill)? At highway speeds?


I never said a high mileage hybrid was a perfect solution. However, in the SHORT TERM, it seems like a reasonable TRANSITIONAL solution that a HUGE number of families could take advantage to to alleviate the oil crunch. I was trying to start a rational conversation about why so few people seem to be willing to take advantage of that concept.


Or is your thing just to mislead to score points for your position, like that ludicrous article you posted, or comparing your "vehicle" to a practical small family car?

[Outcast_Searcher]

3aid - thank you very much for doing the obvious math, which I missed (fatigue is the excuse I'll use, but shame on me anyway).

When I researched the article on Google links, many critical posts were found, but none did the simple math you pointed out either.

[mattduke]

Good luck to you, Outcast_Searcher.

[evilgenius]

I've written about this before, but I'll give the Schmuto Shorts version here:

I deplore people who drive Piouses. I deplore them worse than people who drive Hummers. At least the people who drive hummers know completely well that they're douchebags - the Pious drivers have no idea.

So when I see the Hummer driver pull up, I can see the smirk and I know that the dude is thinking, "yeah, that's right, 6 miles to the gallon - I'm a complete douchebag."

The Pious driver, however, has the same smirk, but he's thinking, "yeah, that's right, I care more than you do."

The Toyota Pious is the ultimate driving machine for the idiot limousine liberal.

It's got all the necessary features.

It's expensive.
It's gas mileage is only marginally better than that of a Honda Fit.
It's loud, in order to better broadcast the user's do-goodiness.
The damage done to the earth to put the thing together is well hidden.

At about 28 grand, which is about 15k over a basic 40mpg sedan/hatchback, you're talking about a 200 gallon difference a year for a 12k total ride. At 6 bucks a gallon, that's 1,200 a year. So your repayment plan is over 13 years. At 6 bucks a gallon. Not including more expensive repairs.

Hybrids are a scam.

If you were really interested in saving the earth, you'd stop driving.

That's about the same conclusion I came up with. I deliver things for a living and drive many miles. One of the other drivers has a Prius. He has to work all of the hours that God gave to make the payments. I drive a used Acura Integra that gets 35 miles per gallon. Sure, I don't get 50+ mpg like the Prius driver does, but I also do not have to work 8 days a week to make payments. If I had to get something new I suppose it would be a Yaris, also a Toyota.

That being said, I really like the idea behind the Prius. The supply demand curve right now is in a place where innovators are buying, hence the high price. If economies of scale can be brought to bear and the supply of used Prius's (Prii?) increases as well, then the equation changes. Right now environmentally and conceptually minded people are lumped into the same buying community as those seeking gold stars for their do-gooder purchase. The suppliers aren't certain what to make of that, especially since they can see from evaluating the risk inherent to the situation in their business plans that gas prices, even under limited supply conditions, could fall given a world economy where no one has enough money to drive because of severe unemployment and lack of any 'heft' in the business cycle.

[hillsidedigger]

Remember, up unil just a few months ago the United States was led by a man who often stated the we needed an energy policy that encouraged the additional burning of gasoline.

Most any type of typical American passenger car of light truck could get much better gasoline mileage if the transmissions were geared differently and I would like to think such more appropriate transmissions will soon be commonly available.

[Ibon]

I thought long and hard and looked at the stats in 2005 when I moved from rural Canada to Seattle and sold my Nissan 4WD Exterra. I considered the point Mos makes about symbolism. I was going to 2 or 3 peak oil conferences a year back then. I considered the costs and my budget. And lastly I considered the Prius and the role it plays in keeping folks enamored of technology and the automobile in general. In the end I bought a slightly used Hyundai Sonata for $ 12,000.00 I call it the Uncar. It is a plain dark blue. I feel very good about my decision.

[dorlomin]

If you were really interested in saving the earth, you'd stop driving.

Its hard to look smug on public transport (unless your on a French TGV)

[Maddog78]

I hate those Priuses' (?) for many of the reasons that Shmuto said.
I drive a Chev Avalanche and a Porsche 911.
I work in the oil & gas business so I'm going to burn my share before it's all gone.