[Ferretlover]

Aleklett: Australia highly vulnerable to oil shortages
June 12, 2009 --ASPO International president, Professor Kjell Aleklett of the Global Energy Systems group at Uppsala University has been in Australia over the past week, presenting lectures in Adelaide and Sydney on peak oil.
ASPO Australia has copies of 2 presentations done in Adelaide - “Energy: The Challenge To Sustainability” (ppt) and “Peak oil, peak gas and peak coal: Setting the scene for future supply problems” (ppt). ...
Professor Aleklett addressed the NSW electric car task force and the Federal Government’s Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics yesterday. He had earlier warned a Senate committee that the International Energy Agency had wildly overestimated oil production, lulling nations such as Australia into a false sense of security. Rather than oil production rising by 20 per cent to 101.5 million barrels a day in 2030, he says production is likely to fall 11 per cent, to just 76 million barrels a day.
Last week the chairman of Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Eric Streitberg, predicted peak oil - the maximum rate of global oil extraction before decline - was just three years away, and forecast prices of up to $200 a barrel. ...
He also said Sweden and other European countries were developing a network of recharging stations to handle the growth of electric cars, although Australia, with its vast distances, posed a greater challenge for electric vehicle manufacturers.

Eclipse Now

[JohnDenver]

Rather than oil production rising by 20 per cent to 101.5 million barrels a day in 2030, he says production is likely to fall 11 per cent, to just 76 million barrels a day.

A fall of 11% to 76mbd means that Aleklett is using a figure of roughly 85.4mbd for the current production level.

Running the numbers, we find that Aleklett is predicting a post-peak decline rate of 0.5% per year. He is predicting that oil production 21 years from now will be roughly 90% of what it is today (76/85.4 = 89%). This rate of decline is extremely mild and easy to cope with.

In fact, this article shows that Kjell Aleklett, president of ASPO international, is fully on-board with my own well-known prediction from Dec. 2007:

JD's Prediction: World C&C production will decline at an average annual rate of 1% for 15 years after the world C&C peak (whether that be May 2005, or some future date).

[TheDude]

Wandering around the archives of the AAPG's tabloid bulletin Explorer I found this interesting article from 2002, written by Steve Pfeiffer, a Merrill Lynch analyst: 2002 Outlook Brighter. He includes these graphs:



The median of those values looks quite close to what the IEA concluded in WEO 2008.



The curious thing here is that Brazil is shown to have a very gentle decline rate, yet their massive additions of late have only led to minor gains.

Long term the biggest variable is whether investors will still bother with putting their money into oil and gas companies of any stripe when it becomes apparent that hydrocarbons are being phased out. This will be massively ruinous to budgets both down and upstream.

[JohnDenver]

Hey Dude, I was just reviewing an old prediction by Ace that you once produced in response to my prediction above:

Did a double take here because I couldn't believe you're presenting yourself as an authority. Here's an alternate forecast I found while googling yours:

World C&C production continues to retain its May 2005 peak and is forecast to decline by 1%/yr until 2009. The decline rate steepens to 4%/yr until 2012. The main reason for the end of the total liquids plateau in 2009 (Fig 1) is that the C&C production decline rate changes from 1%/yr to 4%/yr in 2009.

But what does Ace know? From Updated World Oil Forecasts, including Saudi Arabia.
Not that any of us are authorities in these matters, but those in the know aren't sending these hit the snooze button messages you're promoting. They're calling for immediate action even in the face of 2% declines. They really aren't touting extra gentle declines simply because it's what they want to see happen. Talk about delusional...

Now it turns out that Kjell Aleklett, president of ASPO international, is in full agreement with my prediction, and touting ultra gentle declines. Is Kjell Aleklett delusional, Dude?

Meanwhile, take a close look at the prediction by "Ace" you were touting:


The most recent EIA figure for world C&C production (March 2009) was 72mbd. According to the chart above, we are just now entering the period of 4% per annum decline predicted by Ace. If Ace is correct, in the next 12 months we should lose 4mbd, and world production should be 68mbd in July 2010. Similarly, we should lose another 2mbd and be at 66mbd in July 2011, and a further 2mbd to 64mbd in July 2012.

It's going to be clear very soon who is the competent forecaster here, me or Ace. You implied that I was a fool, and Ace was the authority. Do you still stand by that?

[TheDude]

He was misquoted, by ca. 21 mb/d; his forecast is for 55.1 mb/d in 2030, so you can go back to dismissing him as a pessimistic crank.

You on the other hand I dismiss as a nitpicking troll, who puts up a blog entry about an IEA pronouncement forecasting a slight decline in demand and complains about peak oilers having nothing to say about anything that contravenes their established beliefs - this a day after Leanan posted the exact story both here and at TOD.

PDF at ASPO Australia, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Incidentally Freddy Hutter's tabulation on long term forecasts handed the gold ring to Laherrère for his 1997 call of 85 mb/d for 2008 vs 85.5 mb/d actual. TrendLines Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Chart.

Don't give a shit about Ace's forecasts. His modeling appears sloppy, he does better work with bottom-up material.

Good luck with your group therapy.

[JohnDenver]

He was misquoted, by ca. 21 mb/d; his forecast is for 55.1 mb/d in 2030, so you can go back to dismissing him as a pessimistic crank.

Sorry, I'm going to need a little more data beyond your word for it. Where is the exact location of Aleklett's 55.1 mbd forecast?

P. 40 of Aleklett's PDF gives a "Summary of future oil production" with 75.8mbd for "2030 Production, This study" versus 101.5mbd "Production in 2030, WEO". That matches the Eclipse Now report exactly.

You on the other hand I dismiss as a nitpicking troll, who puts up a blog entry about an IEA pronouncement forecasting a slight decline in demand and complains about peak oilers having nothing to say about anything that contravenes their established beliefs - this a day after Leanan posted the exact story both here and at TOD.

peakoil.com and TOD ran the scare as an ongoing talking point in the news and forums for 20 weeks, and ran the retraction as a footnote on P. 19, one Thursday evening.

PDF at ASPO Australia, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Incidentally Freddy Hutter's tabulation on long term forecasts handed the gold ring to Laherrère for his 1997 call of 85 mb/d for 2008 vs 85.5 mb/d actual. TrendLines Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Chart.

That's interesting. Laherrere also predicts a 1% post-peak decline rate. Is he delusional?

Don't give a shit about Ace's forecasts. His modeling appears sloppy,

That's not what you were saying 18 months ago. Back then you were trotting him out as the authority, the real deal. And now, just when the very forecasts you touted are about to swirl down the toilet, you don't give a shit anymore. Nifty trick. I call it lack of integrity, cheeseball.

[TheAntiDoomer]

poor dude has become frustrated and angry that his dogmatic beliefs are falling apart. What happened to the laid back easy going dude? drowning in frustration I suppose...

taker er' easy dude, I know you will.