[jesterx]

Hey guys I am new to all this, have just lost my job, and down a bit.

I realise that the govt and media keep saying we will be ok but then I keep having to watch many great people that keep giving us the hardcore facts and truth.

i like places like

http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com

http://www.shadowstats.com

http://www.marketoracle.com

but you guys know what these guys are on about. Do you think there is a second crash coming...i just want to know to warn my friends and help my family.????

any thoughts or input would be more appreciated.

[DantesPeak]

Could you be more specific - such as a dollar, stock, bond or economic crash?

Thanks.

[americandream]

Hey guys I am new to all this, have just lost my job, and down a bit. I realise that the govt and media keep saying we will be ok but then I keep having to watch many great people that keep giving us the hardcore facts and truth. i like places like
http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com
http://www.shadowstats.com
http://www.marketoracle.com
but you guys know what these guys are on about. Do you think there is a second crash coming...i just want to know to warn my friends and help my family.???? any thoughts or input would be more appreciated.

Things are going to get hard but no, I don't believe that we are anywhere near a major collapse in global capitalism for another 5 decades. There are just too many people willing to slog away for the American dream simply for a bowl of rice, and, who believe that its worth doing so.

Remember, the American disillusionment with your way of life (and to a smaller extent..across the West) coexists with a much larger appetite for the better life, an appetite not dissimilar to the one that sent your own forebears west across the Atlantic to the New World. This will drive whole populations to amazing feats of achievement until there simply aren't any more resources in the larder to sustain the dream any longer.

[jesterx]

Could you be more specific - such as a dollar, stock, bond or economic crash? Thanks.

i think the dollar will crash but not sure about the economy. do you think its just gunna tank again with credit cards, commercial realestate?

and do you think we are going to have another crash like OCT 08' i mean in equities like their was last year...that was horrific.

[Kristen]

I wouldn't call it a second crash because the first one is still happening, in slow motion. There will be a major decline in the commercial real estate sector because people won't be shopping at the local strip malls. This of course means more job losses, more of the same rifraf. My only advice is just deal with it as it comes. Humans have lived in far worse conditions then you and I. Hell 500 years ago in Romania Vlad Tepes impaled thousands of Turks. At least we don't have to worry about that.

[FloridaGirl]

We haven't finished the first crash yet.

The "too big to fail"s are getting more and more numerous. The Fed's propping up the banks by printing tons of money but in the process they are killing the dollar.

Could you be more specific - such as a dollar, stock, bond or economic crash?

Systemic risk means they are all at risk. We had a number of near misses of systemic collapse last year including one in September that almost crashed the system then. Watch http://www.gatasi.com/video/pD8viQ_DhS4/cspan-rep-paul-kanjorski-reviews-the-bailout-situation.html

For an excellent, easy to understand tutorial on the economic situation, watch the Crash Course (click left of Chris Martenson's picture) at http://www.chrismartenson.com/

[beamofthewave]

I read theautomaticearthblogspot.com and from what I am gleaning there we are in the midst of a 2nd great depression and keep in mind that in the first great depression 7 million people died in the US from starvation. At the automatic earth they have a section about how to create a lifeboat to help you and your family. I highly recommend getting a garden started to help you with your grocery bill. Check Layoffs.com for work, it lists places that are hiring as well as jobs that are laying off. Check out Gleaners to lower your food bill, just google them to find the closest one in your area. I took my friend their after her husband lost hours at his job and she thinks it will really help her family. Dont forget to sign up for food stamps and if you have a child Temporary Aid to Needy Families, might as well while they still exist. Also dont for get to sign up for unemployment and if you are old enough social once the unemployment is all used up. We have given 30 trillion to the banksters in the last two years, twice our gross domestic product per year. Overall the world economy has lost 1.25 quadrillion dollars due to hedge fund losses and Credit default swap losses. The entire world gross domestic product is 50 trillion per year. We are in collapse, not just us but the whole world has been economically ruined, start building your lifeboat, help yourself and your family. The last depression didnt touch Russia of course but unfortunately the entire world is going down in this one. The most important thing to get IMO is a water filter if you have kids because once the cities go under and no longer treat the water, the water borne illnesses kill little kids so quick, I lived in the RP for two years and got to see economic collapse there after Marcos stole 20 billion from their economy. What a shit storm we are in for. You have no idea.

[lowem]

Some in the contrarian community have some kind of what I might term the "Double L" theory. We've had our first one back last Aug-Sep 2009 or so, and word is the second one is due next year May 2010, give or take 2-3 months or thereabouts.

But of course that's just some talk in a small, minor community. On the other hand, the mainstream consensus is we're seeing green shoots and are in a recovery, or waiting for one that is soon to come, perhaps by Q3-Q4 2009 or thereabouts and with the economy fully recovering by next year.

Seeing how the two ideas are kind of mutually exclusive, you can take your pick, or cook up your own scenario

[Kristen]

Some in the contrarian community have some kind of what I might term the "Double L" theory. We've had our first one back last Aug-Sep 2009 or so, and word is the second one is due next year May 2010, give or take 2-3 months or thereabouts.

But of course that's just some talk in a small, minor community. On the other hand, the mainstream consensus is we're seeing green shoots and are in a recovery, or waiting for one that is soon to come, perhaps by Q3-Q4 2009 or thereabouts and with the economy fully recovering by next year.

Seeing how the two ideas are kind of mutually exclusive, you can take your pick, or cook up your own scenario

Well said Lowe, the whole shabang is really illusive. Even with the foreclosures and empty malls, it doesn't feel like a crisis yet. When you say double L you mean the economy looks like a two capital L's (LL) right?

[lowem]

Well said Lowe, the whole shabang is really illusive. Even with the foreclosures and empty malls, it doesn't feel like a crisis yet. When you say double L you mean the economy looks like a two capital L's (LL) right?

Yes, you know back then when they were talking about whether it was gonna be a V-shaped or U-shaped recovery or some such? The contrarian community was ROTFL'ing and LMAO'ing at that, and said, let's talk about an L-shaped "no recovery" instead. Some folks started mumbling about a second downleg. So the shape of the economy might turn out to look like this :

L
. L

If that's not a satisfying enough scenario, please feel free to add a few more :

L
. L
... L
..... L
...... ....

[pedalling_faster]

Hey guys I am new to all this, have just lost my job, and down a bit.

I realise that the govt and media keep saying we will be ok but then I keep having to watch many great people that keep giving us the hardcore facts and truth.

i like places like

http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com

http://www.shadowstats.com

http://www.marketoracle.com

but you guys know what these guys are on about. Do you think there is a second crash coming...i just want to know to warn my friends and help my family.????

any thoughts or input would be more appreciated.

sorry to hear about yet ANOTHER person losing their job. but then Shadowstats wouldn't be counting a 20%+ unemployment rate if people weren't losing their jobs so ... it's not a total surprise.

Karl Denninger & Chris Martenson have informative websites on the economy.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

http://www.chrismartenson.com/

personally i think of it as all part of the same crash/huge change, but to each their own.

as far as telling family, some are open to thinking about it and some want to cling to the economi growth metaphor that reigned from about 1946 to 2007.

[Hoops_Mckann]

Hey guys I am new to all this, have just lost my job, and down a bit. I realise that the govt and media keep saying we will be ok but then I keep having to watch many great people that keep giving us the hardcore facts and truth. i like places like
http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com
http://www.shadowstats.com
http://www.marketoracle.com
but you guys know what these guys are on about. Do you think there is a second crash coming...i just want to know to warn my friends and help my family.???? any thoughts or input would be more appreciated.

Things are going to get hard but no, I don't believe that we are anywhere near a major collapse in global capitalism for another 5 decades. There are just too many people willing to slog away for the American dream simply for a bowl of rice, and, who believe that its worth doing so.

Remember, the American disillusionment with your way of life (and to a smaller extent..across the West) coexists with a much larger appetite for the better life, an appetite not dissimilar to the one that sent your own forebears west across the Atlantic to the New World. This will drive whole populations to amazing feats of achievement until there simply aren't any more resources in the larder to sustain the dream any longer.

That is very well put. Seems to sum up the mindset of the vast majority of people here in America. Once everyone runs for the exit, things seem to go down hill very quickly due to the strong influence that everyone operates ON THEIR OWN to serve their own self interests. I have observed that many here will cling to this mindset despite the mutual benefit of banding together that comes in handy in many situations.

[TreeFarmer]

I'll throw my $0.02 in on this one.

I think we are in the beginning of a 10 year "adjustment" to our lifestyles fueled by too much debt and demographics. First of all, debt. Too much of the growth over the last 25 years was fueled by an ever increasing amount of debt. Consumer debt, corporate debt, and government debt. Now the debt load is getting to where it can't keep going up and up without crashing the system, therefore the use of debt will have to be curtailed which will mean less spending which will mean a slow recovery.

Secondly, the baby boom generation is entering its peak earning years with a load of debt, not enough savings, and now seeing a future where those peak earnings do not look to be as large as anticipated. Therefore, I expect a lot of people to curtail spending as they try to position themselves for their retirement years. This change in habits will also slow any recovery.

Therefore, in an attempt to use letters to describe the "recovery" I'll use the following: UL_/. So, we have a "U" which signifies a drop and recovery, then an "L" which signifies another drop and then staying at a lower level, followed by a "_" which indicates a period of little change, followed by a "/" which indicates steady growth. In my estimations we are just startign the "L" which means I expect things to go back down before stabilizing at a lower level.

I wish you well in your endeavors. If I had no job I'd take any 2 or 3 part time ones I could get to get out of debt and to make some preparations of some kind.

TF

[Kristen]

We should give the foreclosed homes to the homeless, bulldoze the big box stores and restore the land. Then we can all farm together. Just as long as it doesn't turn out like Mindwarp

[ian807]

What we'll see short term is deflation, followed in a few years by massive inflation.

As for the economy as whole, we'll be seeing a "sawtooth" pattern of decline (the economy is up a little, then down a lot, up a little, down a lot) for the next..... forever.

The reasons are twofold. One is derivatives. USA banks hold about 200 trillion (notional value) of derivatives. The world's holdings are north of a quadrillion dollars (notional value). Small shifts, particularly downward ones, trigger economic activity from this mass of derivatives. Small decreases in value (i.e. about 5%) will cause ripple effects throughout the economy. 5 percent of 200 trillion = 10 trillion. Quite a hit. Of course, that's "notional" value (i.e. fantasy value made up by bankers). Actual values are closer to 15 trillion. Still, even half a trillion dollars of decreased wealth in the USA economy is also quite a hit.

The next reason, of course, is oil. What would be the end of the economic crisis in 10 years or so dovetails nicely with start of highly visible declines in oil availability worldwide. Moreover, if countries like Iran, Russia and Mexico decide to hoard all their oil for domestic consumption, you could see a *sharp* fall off in energy availability that happens over the course of a few months, or weeks, with predictable effects on the world's economy.

Bottom line: The booming economy is gone. It's *never* coming back in our lifetimes. I advise learning to grow food, purify water, buy some solar panels or other independent energy source, put some gold aside for emergencies. Think about stocking up on trade goods like tobacco, alcohol, useful gadgets, etc.

[Aaron]

In the 80's, America experienced a "recession" born from the systemic crimes of banksters dubbed the S&L Crisis. (Savings & Loan).

It took America almost a full decade to recover from this recession, mostly on hyper-inflated values of the emerging e-commerce markets on the Internet.

What we see now is a much larger economic correction to account for the gigantic fraud of the entire global financial community.

20+ years would be a good bet.

Some places won't recover at all.

Will there be a second crash?

Almost certainly... but it's very likely you'll be too poor to notice.

[Aaron]

Actually Aaron it started before the 80's. It has been a very long and deluded slide.

The bubbles that Reagan promulgated were a reasonable response to the the worst post-WWII recession of the 70's--the Stagflation. That was caused by Peak-Oil-USA and marked the beginning of the End for the American Century.

The 1960's was America's High Point by any measure--economics, spiritual, creative. All before America's Rust Belt. We were Kings once.

Fair enough... but timing aside, the analogy holds.

[Voice_du_More]

The next crash is starting right now. The Dow has hist a ceiling and will hotly start to erode further. Oil selling off is another sign, if there were green shoots $80 should be in site not $60 or $55. Only 10% of the TARP is in the system and a currency devaluation is looming.

My money is on a two-three punch this fall that finally breaks the deflationary cycle. 10% of credit card accounts ar in default, unofficially 18% are unemployed if you count furloughs and wage freezes and the like, we have the following huge liabilities,

1) 45 trillion in unfunded healthcare and pension liabilities
2) medicare, medicaid, ssi all needing trillions to handle the boomer retirement
3) 11 trillion national debt
4) 1.8 trillion deficit this year alone
5) a giant energy knife at our back waiting to shoot down any attempt at simply replacing the jobs lost in this recession, not to mention producing jobs for all tye new grads as granny can't afford to retire so has to work at McDonalds.

Add to all of that the social warfare that is just waiting to erupt into a justification for all manner of social ills, I think, even without going prophet of doom on this one that America is in a pretty dire situation.

The only question that remains is how long the American people will continue to be good little lemmings and keep heading toward the cliff.

I will go out on a limb and predict $50 oil and dow 5800 in October with pandemic swine flu, a falling dollar, and stop gap measures in California and several other states which will lead to protests that grow more and more violent into 2010. 2010 is going to be the year that the drive train falls out of the American economy.

[Pops]

Boy, I'm usually kind of a "stiff upper lip" "hang in there" Cheerleader kind of guy around here but I'm feeling kind of doomy lately.

We haven't even seen the end of RE crash, it takes 12 months from the first missed payment to get a house foreclosed and back on the market. Consider also the "pent-up" supply of homes - people who have wanted to sell but won't sell into a falling market and buyers who want to buy but won't buy till they see prices rising again. Drove through my little town of 4k and saw more than 1 "For Rent" sign per block combine that with no local job ads in our little paper - none - long time landlords will start to go down.

I have no idea what the pinstripe gamblers are doing with all their winnings but they should be feeling kind of nervous too, Bernie Madoff could be the safest one of the bunch.