[Lokutus]

$20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut link
Waiting for Peak Oil is like Waiting for the Second Coming or Godot. They will never come. I was a believer back in 2003 to 2006 but have moved on. PO is no longer a factor in my plans.

[mark]

I'm with you on that though it took me until very recently to come to that conclusion. We've far bigger threats to occupy our minds but like PO, I'm beginning to see that even financial collapse, (the climate change hoax), 2012, collectivist conspiracy, etc etc etc we will, somehow, pull through.

Don't know how, and reading Kunstler et al is still a hoot, but, we've all had our fun, time to move on. An ex-doomer signing off.

PS I'm a trader and have been know to sell at the bottom. So.......

[Pops]

Wow, I forecast $20 6 months ago and nobody quoted me...:

Post subject: Re: The 2009 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:48 am

Based on the fact that a few bucks have evaporated form the investment pool which has been chasing commodities the last couple of years, people in the US stung by their free spending (or at least free borrowing) ways, the resulting ripples of a poor Christmas season around the globe and finally the Obama WPA, I'm going to bet:

High, $60
Low, $20
Close, $50

[Lokutus]

I'm with you on that though it took me until very recently to come to that conclusion. We've far bigger threats to occupy our minds but like PO, I'm beginning to see that even financial collapse, (the climate change hoax), 2012, collectivist conspiracy, etc etc etc we will, somehow, pull through.
Don't know how, and reading Kunstler et al is still a hoot, but, we've all had our fun, time to move on. An ex-doomer signing off. PS I'm a trader and have been know to sell at the bottom. So.......

To me the saddest place online is Kunstler's blog. The man has about ten basic articles on PO and financial collapse that he recycles endlessly. The really sad part is that he has a loyal band of followers who then generate 500 replies each week as if they had read the latest piece for the first time.

It's like a modern day Cargo Cult with everyone just sitting around waiting for the end to come. Even the dude behind Anthropik called it quits a few years ago after predicting that we would all be living tribally in the mountains by now.

[ian807]

I'm with you on that though it took me until very recently to come to that conclusion.

So *how* did you come to that conclusion? Links? Data? I'd love for this not to be a problem. I just don't see any way around really, really expensive oil in a 10 year time frame.

Or supply shortages. Even if there's oil, it wouldn't take much for Russia, Mexico and Venezuela or Iran (or all of the above) to tell us to buzz off and keep all their oil for domestic use. Probably good for us in the long run if they did. We'd be forced to switch to other sources of energy.

[Aaron]

Your peak oil analysis is similar to how my 8 month old daughter plays peek a boo.

Each time I duck my head behind something, she seems genuinely surprised when I pop out again.

Good luck with that...

[Maddog78]

I just finished reading this on bloomberg as well.
Pretty surprising. I don't think the guy is right though.
He says we need a warm winter and continued recession for it to happen.
A warm or cold winter won't have happened yet for the price to collapse by the end of this year.
He is in Calgary though so maybe he was thinking about Alberta being -40 before Xmas, which can happen there.
Also there was a fairly upbeat report out of China today. They expect to meet their forecast of 8% GDP growth.
That is also bullish for crude I would think.

[Lokutus]

Since the dawn of time, people have been predicting the end of the world, but the world just keeps ticking along.

Every few months the Oil & Gas industry reports new finds.

Don't take it personal. You peeps have been like family to me since 2005, but I have lost my religion re PO.

[Concerned]

Since the dawn of time, people have been predicting the end of the world, but the world just keeps ticking along. Every few months the Oil & Gas industry reports new finds. Don't take it personal. You peeps have been like family to me since 2005, but I have lost my religion re PO.

Unfortunately PeakOil and it's ramifications is NOT like a light switch. It will be an ongoing inexorable decline and one we will only be certain about when we view the data historically. I don't recall any serious PeakOil commentaters talking about the END of the world. Just that there will be enormous changes and challenges.

Ask some of the 10% without jobs what things are like?
Ask some of the people who have taken jobs below what their normal pay expectations are? The people asked to take furloughs.. Ask why is there so much debt racked up trying to patch up our system?

Go and watch the end of suburbia (2003) again. Remember the comment "trillions lost out of the stock market" It's not about the literal end as in an Asteroid hitting the planet it's about a change in our way of life. Don't obsess about PO just stay abreast of the issues and remember it's very correlated to our economy.

[Maddog78]

The hard core doomers on here need to take that advice just as much as the corno's.

[mefistofeles]

was a believer back in 2003 to 2006 but have moved on. PO is no longer a factor in my plans.

Peakoil in my opinion is alot like Pascal's Wager. Sure if peakoil is false any preparations that I make will be a small waste of money but I will always have opportunities to make plenty of money in any economy that is expanding with adequate oil supply.

However if I am right any preparations I make would be priceless.

Every few months the Oil & Gas industry reports new finds.

I know people who work in the Oil and Gas industry and none of the talk about $20 oil. Even now they still tell me oil will NEVER be $20 again. There is still very active talk of $200 oil.

Peakoil will eventually be true someday. At some point the production curve will peak and will keep on dropping. It's geometric function. The world's appetite for oil will always increase but natural production is limited. Once production and demand cross each other we are in real trouble.

If global energy consumption increases at even 2% for ten years we need to improve production by 21%. Even if the oil reserves are available a 20% increase in aggregate global production would neccesiate a huge expansion of the oil industry beyond it's current size. That's assuming that such large reserves even exist.

It's literally been decades since a large field such as Cantarel or Ghawar has been brought on line. The major fields have already been found and if you think we can find another major perhaps you should work in the oil industry because the oil industry hasn't found them. Unless you can prove otherwise I think it's safe to say all the large oil fields have been found and nothing of any true significance has been discovered.

[cipi604]

Sometimes you can't see the forrest because of those damn trees in front of you, lol. At $20 a barrel, the oil industry will collapse, the rate of monthly production decline will rise like no tomorrow.
For me it's pretty obvious the is the 'peak-oil age' , we are already living it... don;t believe me? Try looking for a job. Do you still dream at a booming economy? think again.
There is no such thing as free lunch, never was and never will.

For people who are losing patience regarding our times, it means they never understood the facts. We're f***ed!

[Lokutus]

Sometimes you can't see the forrest because of those damn trees in front of you, lol. At $20 a barrel, the oil industry will collapse, the rate of monthly production decline will rise like no tomorrow.
For me it's pretty obvious the is the 'peak-oil age' , we are already living it... don;t believe me? Try looking for a job. Do you still dream at a booming economy? think again.
There is no such thing as free lunch, never was and never will.

For people who are losing patience regarding our times, it means they never understood the facts. We're f***ed!

Dang, where's that Chicken Little emoticon when you really need it?

[DantesPeak]

Sometimes you can't see the forrest because of those damn trees in front of you, lol. At $20 a barrel, the oil industry will collapse, the rate of monthly production decline will rise like no tomorrow.
For me it's pretty obvious the is the 'peak-oil age' , we are already living it... don;t believe me? Try looking for a job. Do you still dream at a booming economy? think again. There is no such thing as free lunch, never was and never will.
For people who are losing patience regarding our times, it means they never understood the facts. We're f***ed!

Dang, where's that Chicken Little emoticon when you really need it?

Stuck in you prior posts:

So, for every person telling me PO is real there are 100 telling me not to be a "chicken little" and to just "Don't worry, be happy."

http://peakoil.com/post222156.html#p222156 Don't worry, I'm not going to tell everyone you used to believe in the abiotic oil theory.

[Pops]

Don't worry, I'm not going to tell everyone you used to believe in the abiotic oil theory.

<<snicker>>

...

"Then come with me and I will show you," said Foxy Loxy.

And just as he was about to lead them into his den to eat them...

...the sky fell on him.

"Oh dear," said Chicken Little....

[mark]

No, I don't have evidence, wish I did. There is nothing I can point to that has made me an ex doomer. What has made me an ex peak oil doomer is the 5 years I've spent searching for an answer.

Peak oil is only a symptom, it's not the problem. If we focus on the symptom, we'll never even identify the real problem. The economic meltdown is also a symptom. Those who deal with that problem are also swatting at symptoms. You can guess that outcome. Climate change is a symptom – not of man's reckless environmental destruction but of his gullibility and laziness. The search for answers first has to identify the real problem. It is up to each and every one of us to know what problems we face. In the long run it's the only way. I would not be doing any of you any favors by telling you what what I think, that would only prejudice your own judgment. We grow by doing.

We face insurmountable problems using only our human ingenuity. Fortunately, we have more than that available to us. Tapping that power, now that's a worthy problem to solve.

[mefistofeles]

Or supply shortages. Even if there's oil, it wouldn't take much for Russia, Mexico and Venezuela or Iran (or all of the above) to tell us to buzz off and keep all their oil for domestic use. Probably good for us in the long run if they did. We'd be forced to switch to other sources of energy.

To me peak oil isn't so much about supply limitations as it is about growth and demand. Even if we can raise oil production demand will increases geometrically while supply can only increase arithmetically this is Malthus's Theory:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_growth_model

At some point demand growth will simply outstrip supply growth. What makes oil scarier than food is that our energy needs aren't set per person. Even the most obese person can only consume so much food. However even in developed countries such as the United States our appetite for energy increases on a per person level. We want ever larger LCD's bigger and faster cars.

The paradox is this that new supply and lower prices will only create more consumption. This is true up to a point with food,but at some point you're going to be full. There is no limit on the amount of energy we in the West can consume per person. This is called Jevon's Paradox

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

The situation in China is even worse they use 1/20 of the energy we use per capita in the first world. Even if they're energy consumption reaches 25% of ours per capita then we will have real problems.

Unless energy prices increase drastically energy is a non factor in most people's budgets? How many people actually have to worry about paying for fuel and electricity before they worry about paying for rent or mortgage. Yes they may worry about energy but usually in the context of dealing with some other expense. Energy bills are not driving people in financial ruin and aren't even a constraining factor on their behaviour.

In context of the fact that energy is ridiculously cheap energy prices really need to go up. Prices right now are simply unsustainably low and do not provide enough incentive to reduce consumption. Until prices go up substantially it's hard to see energy use no increasing.

Peak oil isn't about the world running out of oil, its about our greed and unlimited appetitie for energy when prices are low. At some point we're going to have a high speed "meeting with reality".

[gnm]

Sorry doom is not proceeding fast enough for short attention spans... I've been following PO issues for almost 10 years. Its just about on schedule actually. Any improvement in your current (unprecedented) economic doom will be slapped down hard by PO. No growth in energy = no growth in economy. Lower prices will come back and bite us in the ass as lack of investment meets consistent declines...

But don't worry, the TV's still on eh?

-G

[AgentR]

Peak oil itself says nothing about price. It really doesn't. Price is much more dependent upon demand, and any time demand drops below a certain percentage of available product flow, the price should be expected to drop through the floor. I don't know where people get this notion that a falling supply would drive up price, as opposed to permanent, and repeatedly crushing chunks of demand such that price collapse is not only possible; but likely.

Now, like all doomerisms; there is a certain clique of people that feel they absolutely must hold up a sign; "The End Is Nigh" and have the world go splat in a matter of days or weeks. To me, its always seemed fairly evident that peak oil effects would slowly, gradually, grind down the economy over a period of decades. Less and less energy being available to add value to product; real productivity of tangible goods drifts lower and lower; less real economic activity, and LOWER fuel prices, controlled on the top side only by spikes that destroy demand at a much faster rate than demand is rebuilt during the lulls.

I'm entirely convinced that Peak Oil will be the wrecking ball that does in the modern economic model. I also entirely expect to be driving and working 30 years from now; though I expect to be working much longer hours, for a much shabbier lifestyle.

[Hawkcreek]

Oil may go to $20, but I don't think it will stay there very long. At $40 a barrel, BP loses 500 million a year on the North Slope (a very high cost producer).
Combine that with the oil output from the tar sands ( a very, very high cost producer), and you will see cuts in output in very short order -- maybe even a closing down of the entire fields. The cuts in production will eventually cause the price to rise...and I don't think eventually would be too long a period.
BP has already slashed capital budgets on the North Slope, which will soon start to show up in an increased rate of production loss. They already have to spend 250 million a year in drilling costs alone, just to keep the production decline down to 6 percent a year.
Yeah, I think we are still screwed.