[energyhoggin]

all i read and hear about is this ghawar oil field, well what about the persian gulf with its truly massive oil reserves. These reserves which hold 50 percent of world proven oil reserves still has significant potential so why isnt anybody mentioning about this area?

The Persian Gulf contains 674 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, representing over half (53%) of the world's oil reserves, and 2,462 Tcf of natural gas reserves (45% of the world total). Also, at the end of 2003, Persian Gulf countries maintained about 22.9 million bbl/d of oil production capacity, or 32% of the world total. Perhaps even more significantly, the Persian Gulf countries normally maintains almost all of the world's excess oil production capacity.

[hillsidedigger]

I wonder if those estimates are true and whether all that quantity is high quality petroleum and technically recoverable?

Even if so, it's still probably less than 20 years worth of world demand for oil.

[frankthetank]

I don't think anyone is saying we are running out of oil, we aren't. Still plenty. At what rate can you pump that oil,at what PRICE...

If i'm reading this correctly, the "Persian Gulf" would include Saudi Arabia and would include Ghawar...

[AirlinePilot]

We may be talking about Ghawar, but that is the largest piece of the "Persian Gulf" pie there is. Its the biggy. The rest of it is fairly well understood and has been exploited well except maybe for offshore. I believe that what your driving at, that we are overlooking something, is incorrect.

You need to do some research into exactly what PO means. It isnt about how much is left or when we run out. Its about attempting to pinpoint when production can no longer grow, due to any factor, and how we manage the decline which ensues. Some say it will be slow, others say it will be quicker. its beginning to appear that the quicker decline may be playing out. Right now that is obfuscated by the global recession and demand issues. It wont stay that way forever.

[energyhoggin]

I don't think anyone is saying we are running out of oil, we aren't. Still plenty. At what rate can you pump that oil,at what PRICE...

If i'm reading this correctly, the "Persian Gulf" would include Saudi Arabia and would include Ghawar...

ok i see now, the persian gulf is not really offshore oil reserves but just a group of countries that border the gulf.

[energyhoggin]

We may be talking about Ghawar, but that is the largest piece of the "Persian Gulf" pie there is. Its the biggy. The rest of it is fairly well understood and has been exploited well except maybe for offshore. I believe that what your driving at, that we are overlooking something, is incorrect.

You need to do some research into exactly what PO means. It isnt about how much is left or when we run out. Its about attempting to pinpoint when production can no longer grow, due to any factor, and how we manage the decline which ensues. Some say it will be slow, others say it will be quicker. its beginning to appear that the quicker decline may be playing out. Right now that is obfuscated by the global recession and demand issues. It wont stay that way forever.

well i understand peak oil, its the point were production levels off even though they have only pumped less than one half the amount of oil in the ground, the next stage is decline. That offshore oil in the persian gulf is what i was talking about there is a lot of oil reserves in the gulf accourding to some sources, whether its been fully tapped or fully exploited is a matter up to question.

[zeke]

well i understand peak oil, its the point were production levels off even though they have only pumped less than one half the amount of oil in the ground, the next stage is decline. That offshore oil in the persian gulf is what i was talking about there is a lot of oil reserves in the gulf accourding to some sources, whether its been fully tapped or fully exploited is a matter up to question.

that "question" is part of the peak oil definition. there may be eons' worth of oil way down deep..under the sea..under the crust...where the dragons live and ships of yore search eternally for salvation.

the concept there is, how much energy does it require to recover and refine that good stuff?

if it takes 1 barrel to recover 1 barrel, then it isn't worth the effort, and you abandon that well. the oil might as well be on Jupiter.

many folks like to think that they can cheat physics and claim there's "some new technology that will be invented" that will make it all work.

A. the tech needed to recover that oil with a positive EROI exists mainly on cocktail napkins or in a beaker somewhere, and B. Technology is itself a user of energy, a part these theorists never factor in.

Probably too much television, most likely Star Trek, has taught these individuals that yankee know-how and elbow grease are all that's needed to change the laws of physics and have a never-ending supply of magical energy.

the thing is, if we could do all that stuff they claim we'll be able to do with recovering the hard-to-reach oil....we wouldn't NEED the freakin' oil!


z

[AirlinePilot]

The other GIANT issue staring you in the face is what quality is all that potential offshore oil? If its sulfourous or filled with vanadium or it's sour, then its even more costly to refine and transport.

Here's the simple truth:

All the low hanging easy fruit has been picked. As we turn towards the harder to get(IE more costly) stuff, and the stuff with crappier quality, and the deep water stuff, the price will go up. As the producer countries enrich themselves due to the higher prices everyone else pays for the stuff, they export less due to internally increased consumption. This is where we are. Discoveries have not kept up with production for quite a long time, contrary to that Idiot OilFinder2. Speculating on potential oil is just that, speculation. While it's still possible(and likely) a lot of oil exists, at what cost? At what ease of production? At what quality?

These are the things most of us are concerned with now. The problems associated with Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) are also large ones. Net Energy available is falling and that is also Fact. Embracing the problem rather than denying any exists is how we will manage to meet it. So far humanity is doing a really poor job of that. It's websites like this one and The Oil Drum which are attempting to help with the process of education and mitigation.

I'd sugest that you spend some time (and The Oil Drum) here learning why a lot of us think this way. I'm not a doomer by choice or because I'm some sort of survivalist. It took me about a year of digging, reading, and yes arguing to come to understand what I believe to be very close to the truth. That we have peaked. That we may be on some sort of bumpy plateau, and that soon we will begin the long decline. I've also learned that the majority of the world does not think we have a problem. Hopefully we are the beginning of some sort of effort to change that, because if we do not the implications are dire.