Only three weeks into the new fiscal year, gaps are already opening up. And the shortfalls are only expected to grow.
Before Gov. Sonny Perdue announced plans last week to cut $900 million from the budget and furlough teachers and state employees, he broke the news to local school superintendents.
But after that conference call, some of them were left with the impression that the new hits won’t be enough to solve the deep fiscal problems the state faces.
“It sounds to me like this isn’t over,” said Cherokee County Superintendent Frank Petruzielo. “I am telling my [school] board ... to probably get ready for phase two by January.”
The reductions Perdue announced last week will bring Georgia to a budget level nearly equal to that of 2005.
But, as Perdue pointed out, the state’s population has grown by 1 million since that time.
“I think this should be enough,”said Kenneth Heaghney, the governor’s chief economic adviser and a Georgia State University economist. “But I’ve been wrong before.”
He said the projection is based on the state’s economy being “near a bottom,” with growth beginning by the end of the year. “Obviously that’s not assured,” he added.
Senate Appropriations Chairman Jack Hill (R-Reidsville) is less optimistic. He wrote recently that the state could “easily face a $1.5 billion shortfall” this year,” if tax collections continue to show double-digit declines.
“There really aren’t any guides we can look at that say we have reached the bottom,” Hill said.
The Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, an Atlanta budget think tank, has recommended the General Assembly consider raising cigarette taxes, hire more auditors, temporarily impose a 1 tax percent surcharge on family income of more than $400,000 and/or reinstate an estate tax. The last two recommendations, institute officials say, would affect less than 1 percent of Georgians.
But 2010 is an election year and no incumbent wants to run for office after voting for a tax hike. The General Assembly has consistently voted to cut, not raise taxes.
“There is one thing everyone is united on,” said House Majority Leader Jerry Keen (R-St. Simons Island). “We don’t raise taxes on citizens and businesses during a recession. Nothing would hinder a recovery more than raising taxes.”
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