[eastbay]

http://sf.streetsblog.org/wp-content/up ... report.pdf


Has this already been posted? It's a very lengthy and thorough report dealing with the impacts San Franciscans can expect to face as they adjust to a post peak future.

I thought I would share it.

[pup55]

http://www.recouncil.com/txdalcnl/web.nsf/files/83838F2F438BF80C8725737F000AC27C/$file/AlanWalne.ppt

Well, SF is one of the few places in the country with an educated enough population, and social cohesiveness to make something like this work. They are proposing a permanent energy transition office....

According to the report, SF has 11% of its people below the poverty line....Weather good, the ability to grow enough food nearby is pretty good, there is a respectable mass transit system....So, they have something to build on.

Compare this to a city like Dallas....The city is going to be over 60% minority bu 2010, is ahead of the nation in family size, and according to the above report, 40% of the community is already too poor to afford basic health care....

Add to this the fact that the city is 99% dependent on the automobile for travel, most of the money lives in the far flung suburbs.... it is one of those places were (the locals will have to set me straight on this if I am wrong) the very notion of PO will be dismissed by the local government officials as lunacy, much less anything that needs to be studied, planned for or anything else.

Add to this the fact that it is hot.

Now, to be fair, they are trying to develop some light rail....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Area_Rapid_Transit

They have a ridership of 70,000 per day. About 1/10 of SF's 600,000

I can see a summer in some distant year where there are going to be a lot of problems. A big, annoyed, hot population, split into three roughly equal racial groups....

A special Texas-sized allocation of popcorn ought to be set aside for the riots that are going to start in this place.

[dunewalker]

...Compare this to a city like Dallas....The city is going to be over 60% minority by 2010...

Great oxymoron...

[graycycle]

I recently read the report and shared it with several friends. I was particularly interested in the section on food security. What so few seem to realize is that most urban areas have an on-hand food supply that could feed the local population for a maximum of 9 days. That is IF the food supply could be controlled by a central body and distributed equitably. In practice, panic buying/looting would probably advance the cut off of food to perhaps a week. Any major disruption in the availability of oil and related fuel products would obviously hit the shipping industry hard slowing food deliveries and sending prices soaring. It could be the straw that breaks the back of our collective camel.

[eastbay]

...Compare this to a city like Dallas....The city is going to be over 60% minority by 2010...

Great oxymoron...

Funny, I caught that too. Pup55 you rarely do that... lol.

I bet SF will have a similar (less Mexicans and Blacks, but more Asians) racial distribution yet it still has a decent shot at success.

[eastbay]

I recently read the report and shared it with several friends. I was particularly interested in the section on food security. What so few seem to realize is that most urban areas have an on-hand food supply that could feed the local population for a maximum of 9 days. That is IF the food supply could be controlled by a central body and distributed equitably. In practice, panic buying/looting would probably advance the cut off of food to perhaps a week. Any major disruption in the availability of oil and related fuel products would obviously hit the shipping industry hard slowing food deliveries and sending prices soaring. It could be the straw that breaks the back of our collective camel.

This report optimistically states there is enough food grown within 100 miles of The City to feed the Bay Area. After those nine days worth are depleted, it'll require quickly creating a completely redesigned food distribution system.

[pup55]

60% minority

(sigh) I thought about this about an hour after I wrote it .... Oh well.

Anyhow, you are right on the food thing.... If you are in a "new orleans" type situation, where one day things are normal, and about three days later there is a catastrophe, there is really limited reaction time.

All I can think of is a place like minneapolis, where if there is a problem that hits about November 1, it would take eight months for any sort of localized food production to work meaningfully, and even that is with a massive effort.....

I suppose in their case, they have the Jolly Green Giant at their doorstep and it would not take them more than a year or so to adapt....but it would be a difficult first year, to be sure.

So the problem in any of these cases, what you would really have to do is gradually develop some of this urban food production over time so you do not wake up one day with a disaster on your hands. You're fighting human nature and economics......I guess that is what they are trying to do in SF...

[graycycle]

There is an old saying, "Change usually happens slowly, until it happens fast." Essentially, this means that events tend to build up culminating in what seems a dramatic event, somewhat like a dam bursting. The dam structure may have been weakened over a period of decades by slowly spreading internal cracks and small earth movements until it is primed for a sudden collapse. The same trend can take place on a sociopolitical level. Indeed, the U.S. is primed for a series of economic, social and technological failures that could cascade into a full structural collapse. Personally, I believe that will likely occur within the next two decades, probably sooner rather than later.

To ride out and adjust to a rapid breakdown a person/family/community has to plan and prepare for both short term and long term responses. In the short term there will be the need to have enough basic essentials on hand to carry individuals and communities through the initial chaotic stages of collapse. Potable water, food, shelter, emergency medical supplies, etc. sufficient for possibly several months would be critical. However, this would only be a stop gap measure providing time for members to put long term plans into effect. If there was no clear long term strategy the short term emergency supplies would only slightly delay the inevitable.