[jupiters_release]

according to KD. Market Ticker Link.

Not factoring in oil depletion either! Here today gone tomorrow? K'nell

[Southpaw]

The only way we gonna see 300$ oil is either by hyperinflation or by some miracle that the world economy can continue business as usual.

personally i think we gonna experience the worst Obscentity deleted/ 10 years in a long time and by then hopefully they find an alternative that actually is real unlike gas fart oily's crap alternatives.

40$ oil is more likely then 300$ at this moment tbh i don't know how much longer they can continue talking about green shoots but when markets collapse again oil prices will follow

[vision-master]

The only way we gonna see 300$ oil is either by hyperinflation or by some miracle that the world economy can continue business as usual.
personally i think we gonna experience the worst shittiest 10 years in a long time and by then hopefully they find an alternative that actually is real unlike gas fart oily's crap alternatives.
40$ oil is more likely then 300$ at this moment tbh i don't know how much longer they can continue talking about green shoots but when markets collapse again oil prices will follow

Crude oil price closes at 10-month high $74.81

[sjn]

The only way we gonna see 300$ oil is either by hyperinflation or by some miracle that the world economy can continue business as usual. personally i think we gonna experience the worst shittiest 10 years in a long time and by then hopefully they find an alternative that actually is real unlike gas fart oily's crap alternatives. 40$ oil is more likely then 300$ at this moment tbh i don't know how much longer they can continue talking about green shoots but when markets collapse again oil prices will follow

Crude oil price closes at 10-month high $74.81

This is something the extreme deflationists need to wake up to. The real price of energy is not dependent on the supply of credit but on the cost of marginal net energy. This can potentially be infinite if net energy growth is impossible (within the current infrastructural framework), meaning any available liquidity (central bank money injections) will eventually go directly towards increasing the price, pushing it up the curve to infinity. This doesn't mean downward moves are impossible, and in nominal terms it's bound to be volatile especially as classes of consumers are priced out together causing sudden drops in demand, but it does mean as time goes on less must be demanded, and this can only be achieved by higher prices in real terms. It also means the deflationists can be correct in general (printing money doesn't make things more affordable), but wrong in specificity (energy prices will rise), in particular those who advocate "liquidity injection/QE" as a remedy to deflation.

Edit: Fixed a broken sentence.

[lowem]

Crude oil did touch $75 exactly yesterday. Sounds familiar? Echoes of $100 oil where a guy went out and bought a $100.00 contract for fun and well, not profit, he made a bit of a loss playing around like that. Of course it could have been a bot this time which couldn't care less.

$300 is a bit far-fetched for the moment, barring a black swan or instant hyperinflation.
Wouldn't be too surprised by a break above $75 on its way to $100 though.

Many, many resistance levels have to fall before we get within striking distance of $300

[sjn]

Crude oil did touch $75 exactly yesterday. Sounds familiar? Echoes of $100 oil where a guy went out and bought a $100.00 contract for fun and well, not profit, he made a bit of a loss playing around like that. Of course it could have been a bot this time which couldn't care less.

$300 is a bit far-fetched for the moment, barring a black swan or instant hyperinflation.
Wouldn't be too surprised by a break above $75 on its way to $100 though.

Many, many resistance levels have to fall before we get within striking distance of $300

I didn't mean to imply that we'd see $300 any time soon, if at all. It's possible the system of international oil trade in US$ would completely collapse before that point, certainly the wobble we've seen in the last year is testament to the instability present in the current system. In real terms though, I expect the price of energy to rise.

[DantesPeak]

This is something the extreme deflationists need to wake up to. The real price of energy is not dependent on the supply of credit but on the cost of marginal net energy. This can potentially be infinite if net energy growth is impossible (within the current infrastructural framework), meaning any available liquidity (central bank money injections) will eventually go directly towards increasing the price, pushing it up the curve to infinity. This doesn't mean downward moves are impossible,. and it is in nominal terms, it's bound to be volatile especially as classes of consumers are priced out together causing sudden drops in demand, but it does mean as time goes on less must be demanded, and this can only be achieved by higher prices in real terms. It also means the deflationists can be correct in general (printing money doesn't make things more affordable), but wrong in specificity (energy prices will rise), in particular those that advocate "liquidity injection/QE" as a remedy to deflation.

Well put. As I said many times before, the price of oil must rise in the long term vs. most everything else (except some other natural resources and food). The only time it will not rise is when there is a steep economic contraction. In the last year or so, demand has dropped faster than the supply drop. During these periods, oil could fall.

QE (quantitative easing - the Fed buying $1 trillion+ in mortgages and US treasuries) is about to create a new burst of inflation - and oil buying. This will increase demand past supplies agian.

Due to significant oil buffer stocks (allowing demand to move stealthily past supply), the price could rise very fast as demand once again exceeds (falling) supplies - and creating a new cycle of up and down prices.

[ian807]

In 1997, oil was $12 a barrel. Anyone who predicted $147 a barrel in 2008 would have been considered a crazy doomer. Even $70 a barrel would have been laughed at.

Those darned crazy peak oilers. What will they think of next?

[patience]

To clarify, I think Karl Denninger was saying that $300 was in the event of a US currency failure, which he seems to deem more and more likely, as we go further with our present policies.

The US dollar doesn't look to me to have anything but momentum and air between it and collapse.

[Novus]

$300 oil is rather impossible because the economy would collapse and kill demand before it got that high.

[pup55]

Many, many resistance levels have to fall

not the least of which is that the US would be spending $2.1 trillion per year on just oil, to transport soccer moms in an economy of only about $13 trillion....That won't go on too long.