[AirlinePilot]

Very interesting article interviewing Robert Hirsch. In it he claims that there IS some sort of cover up actively going on within our Governement concerning the "bad news" topic of Peak Oil. Also interesting to here Mr Hirsch's take on where we are.

Hirsch Interview

[Troyboy1208]

Great Article AP...a real eye opener

[SFDukie]

It is an interesting article. Funny that successive administrations could talk about the issue and keep their heads in the sand as to not taking action.
I'm invoking Hanlon's Razor.

[cipi604]

It is an interesting article. Funny that successive administrations could talk about the issue and keep their heads in the sand as to not taking action.
I'm invoking Hanlon's Razor.

What do you mean by action? It sounds like they know what to do, but they don't want to do it. It ain't that simple.
Actually, if you ask me, they have no clue what to do about it, just the old classic way: war.

[venky]

I never believed in conspiracy theories

[JohnDenver]

As always, Hirsch is not coming clean about his assumptions.

Hirsch puts no credence whatsoever in conservation as a strategy to mitigate peak oil. He's very much a true believer in the "non-negotiable American lifestyle". His analysis of mitigation/adaptation to peak oil contains ZERO reference to: bicycling, car pooling, scooters, compressed work week, gas rationing, telecommuting, EVs, NG vehicles etc. The Hirsch report rules all of those out as measures to deal with the problem.

His idea of "solving" the peak oil problem is to build horrendously expensive, highly polluting facilities for producing substitute liquid fuel (CTL, GTL, heavy oil) so that everyone can continue driving their current vehicles in a completely business-as-usual fashion. That's the only solution he considers, and he thinks we're totally screwed if that doesn't happen.

I've previously written on this in detail:
Why Robert Hirsch is dead wrong

[Roy]

n it he claims that there IS some sort of cover up actively going on within our Government concerning the "bad news" topic of Peak Oil

Cover up? US Government? Who'd a thunk it?

Hirsch puts no credence whatsoever in conservation as a strategy to mitigate peak oil. He's very much a true believer in the "non-negotiable American lifestyle". His analysis of mitigation/adaptation to peak oil contains ZERO reference to: bicycling, car pooling, scooters, compressed work week, gas rationing, telecommuting, EVs, NG vehicles etc. The Hirsch report rules all of those out as measures to deal with the problem.

His idea of "solving" the peak oil problem is to build horrendously expensive, highly polluting facilities for producing substitute liquid fuel (CTL, GTL, heavy oil) so that everyone can continue driving their current vehicles in a completely business-as-usual fashion. That's the only solution he considers, and he thinks we're totally screwed if that doesn't happen.

Happy motoring (TM) must continue at all costs!

Get with the program JD!

[Mesuge]

he claims that there IS some sort of cover up actively going on within our Governement concerning the "bad news" topic of Peak Oil Hirsch Interview

Interesting, now what is the semantic distance between gov. coverup and conspiracy theory? One mm or km, longer? Is it in the eye of the beholder? Even if JFK murder was proven to be a gov. plot it doesn't matter because he was just another rich bastard (paraphrasing premier leftgatekeeper Chomsky). "Government denies knowledge" ta-da-da, X-files, remember this slogan from that intro scene?

Perhaps what I'm getting at, the peak oil fall out will translate into one giant confidence debacle as seen by the non-privileged class in every aspect imaginable, which means even lower chance for any sort of soft-landing techno style scenario to proceed..

[Windmills]

Hirsch puts no credence whatsoever in conservation as a strategy to mitigate peak oil.

Neither do I. Conserve 30%, increase population 100%: conservation accomplishes basically nothing.

Perhaps he's thinking the unspeakable P-word C-word, knows that it may be an even harder battle to fight that peak oil, and therefore concludes that in its absence conservation and efficiency are merely exercises in postponement and not solutions at all.

[JohnDenver]

unspeakable P-word C-word

?

[AirlinePilot]

Hirsch puts no credence whatsoever in conservation as a strategy to mitigate peak oil. He's very much a true believer in the "non-negotiable American lifestyle". His analysis of mitigation/adaptation to peak oil contains ZERO reference to: bicycling, car pooling, scooters, compressed work week, gas rationing, telecommuting, EVs, NG vehicles etc. The Hirsch report rules all of those out as measures to deal with the problem.

I don't agree with that asessment of Hirschs work at all. As a matter of fact I think your completely mis characterizing him. I believe after reading several of Hirsch's other works on Energy problems he really believes, as do I, that reality is a harsh mistress. There will be no real effort expended as you so desperately and doggedly propose. Hirsch understands this, he understands the establishment and how it works. He understands how corporate greed, lack of political will and leadership are going to SkullF&*ck us until it's too late.

I give him high marks for credibility. He has done the work, its objective and its realistic. As he has noted there are many who will try to argue it, but that is the nature of bad news.

I've read your debunk of Hirsch and cant agree with many of the points. Just looks like a lot of denial to me. Typical JD, very typical.

Bicycling, car pooling, scooters??? Really JD, where do you live? What is the reality surrounding that form of desperate conservation? Gas rationing and all that other stuff you point to means nothing less than further economic negativity and as Hirsch so rightly puts it, there is already enough bad news. No one is going to step up to the plate until we are IN IT up to our necks. It just isn't going to happen. We should have started serious efforts to conserve years ago. Where are with that presently?

For the record, I drive a 150CC scooter almost everywhere I can now except to and from work or on extremely bad weather days. I am in the VAST MINORITY in my awareness of what our future energy paradigm is going to look like. I cringe every time I think of where we are going to NEED to be with personal transportation and travel within just 5 or 10 years. You are completely out of touch with what the majority will think when their gasoline is rationed and they are told they cannot drive on certain days unless they carpool etc. It's just not going to go over well with J6P.

Sorry JD your living in a fantasy land.

[copious.abundance]

How can anyone say that the issue of peak oil has been "covered up" when it's been discussed everywhere in the news for . . . years?

[AirlinePilot]

I dont believe it's a CT at all really. I think its simply a case of Governments around the world misunderstanding the magnitude of the problem and getting caught up in what appear to be more immediate crisis. PO gets pushed aside as an issue which can wait. After all it is just more bad news. I think Governments are trying very hard right now to meter that negative stuff. The emphasis on things like PO will get misplaced. It will be misplaced by other matters perceived to be of a more primary nature. Thats exactly what I see going on now. Its not CT its just stupidity and lack of good leadership.

[AirlinePilot]

How can anyone say that the issue of peak oil has been "covered up" when it's been discussed everywhere in the news for . . . years?

If you read the article OF thats Exactly what Mr Hirsch is claiming. Personally it makes plenty of sense, and until very recently the topic of PO has been considered "fringe".

Everywhere in the news? Actually I'd take issue with that, maybe since last year, but before that it would be hard to show the MSM was aware of the concept at all.

[copious.abundance]

I don't know about you, but I've been reading about this in the news for literally years.

[venky]

Hirsch says directly that there were those in the Government bureaucracy that actively suppressed research on Peak Oil. Do they fear an open debate on the issue? I am not sure why they should, global warming now is as mainstream as it will get, and having an open debate in society does not seem to have prevented the naysayers and deniers from clinging to their beliefs or pushing their agenda and preventing any meaningful solutions from being implemented. Wouldn't it be the same for Peak oil? Surely we could count on our Peak Oil deniers like Michael Lynch and John Denver?

Or do they just consider the Peak oil 'concerners' to be alarmists and don't want them spreading what they see as unnecessary panic?

Might it be because, while the research on Global warming is extensive, they will be no significant effects on mankind for years, probably decades to come. Maybe for peak oil, oil shortages and economic depression might happen or a far shorter timeline.

[AirlinePilot]

I don't know about you, but I've been reading about this in the news for literally years.

I'd say you'd be hard pressed to find any substantive stuff from other than a year or two ago. I am not talking about trade or scientific journals either. What percentage of people read that stuff anyway?

Maybe the news you read OF, but not MSM. This topic barely came up for the first time even in investment publications and media
last year. Yes there are folks like us who have seen it, but I'm talking about main stream stuff. There were rarely any stories about anything other than some
doomer porn put up to get ratings. Peak Oil was never even brought up in these programs.

It is still considered fringe by the majority and by any measure political and corporate leadership as well.

[drgoodword]

I don't know about you, but I've been reading about this in the news for literally years.

The Peak Oil issue hasn't been covered extensively by the media. Compare these "Google News" searches:

"Recession" - 135,000 returns
"Aids" - 28,000 returns
"Peak Oil" - 428 returns

Given that Peak Oil could be an even bigger problem than the current Great Recession or Aids, media coverage for Peak Oil is very, very thin.

Also: that interview with Hirsch is very interesting and disturbing. I don't think I seen someone at his level of access state that the Peak Oil issue is being deliberately ignored by government. Not surprising, but very disturbing.

[dinopello]

I think all he is saying is that the bad news subject is not something politicians want to discuss. He may be perplexed by it, given that he is not in politics, but it is just common sense. Hirsch has his own professional mental blocks.

JohnDenver is correct in saying that Hirsch is uncomfortable in discussing the lifestyle change response strategy. Hirsch has a conventional engineer's mentality. You hire an engineer to design and build a bridge, you don't want him asking you if you really need to cross the river and they really aren't inclined to do so. Engineers are great at recognizing risks, so he correctly identifies the problem but they are also trained at applying technology to deliver the lifestyle that people want and that is what he is focussed on as his response.

[AirlinePilot]

JohnDenver is correct in saying that Hirsch is uncomfortable in discussing the lifestyle change response strategy. Hirsch has a conventional engineer's mentality. You hire an engineer to design and build a bridge, you don't want him asking you if you really need to cross the river and they really aren't inclined to do so. Engineers are great at recognizing risks, so he correctly identifies the problem but they are also trained at applying technology to deliver the lifestyle that people want and that is what he is focussed on as his response.

He may be uncomfortable about it, but I dont believe he misses the magnitude of the impact and where we are headed due to it. He has been quite succinct about his ideas of timing and lack of mitigation. I think its also quite clear that Hirsch has of late been very active in attempting to do something with regards to waking up leadership. I do not see him as perplexed at all, he's incredulous.