[Graeme]

Renewables Global Status Report 2009 Update

The year 2008 was the best yet for renewables. Even though the global economic downturn affected renewables in many ways starting in late 2008, the year was still one to remember. As Table 1, on page 22, shows, in just one year, the capacity of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plants (larger than 200 kW) tripled to 3 GW. All forms of grid-tied solar PV grew by 70%. Wind power grew by 29% and solar hot water increased by 15%. Annual ethanol and biodiesel production both expanded by 34%. Heat and power from biomass and geothermal sources continued to grow, and small hydro increased by 8%.

The year 2008 also marked four years of dramatic gains across all technologies. Looking back, many can remember the milestone ‘Bonn Renewables 2004’ conference, which brought together delegates from over 145 countries around the world to accelerate global action. That year was also the genesis of the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report.

renewableenergyworld

[JohnDenver]

Quite a shame that this thread is so lonely. There are some eye-popping graphs in that report. No Hubbert curves or plateaus in this neck of the woods. Nothing but thick and creamy exponential growth, LOL:







The wind build is amazing if you think of it in terms of EV fuel.

A typical EV efficiency value is 5 miles/kwH, while ICE cars run about 20 miles/gallon. That gives us an equivalency of about 1 kwh = .25 gallons of gasoline. The world is adding about 30 GWe of wind capacity per year, and wind has a capacity factor of about 30%. So the wind installed last year should produce roughly 87.6 Twh/year (roughly equal to the total annual electricity production of the Czech Republic). Converting that to gasoline, we get 1.4 million barrels /day. In a few years, the wind increment will double to the equivalent of 3 million barrels/day, so that windmills worldwide will be adding EV fuel equivalent to Canada's total oil production every year (or Saudi Arabia's oil production every 3 years). And windmills don't deplete!

EVs really can really be a game changer if you think about. Windmills are a very efficient and clean source of vehicle fuel, and they can definitely come on a lot faster than oil is depleting. No wonder the Saudi's are getting worried.

[IslandCrow]

I am glad for the growth in renewables, but I wonder if in light of the economic situation things can keep growing like they have (I know in % terms they cannot, as you can get a large % growth from a small installed base, but as the industry matures you can get the same % growth).

The report does state:

Of course, the market value of virtually all companies then took a big hit, and many subsequently closed plants, laid off workers, cut production, and revised expansion plans.

We will see how this plays out in the long run.

[hardtootell-2]

Hmm renewable replacing fossil fuels. check out this graphic from IEEE spectrum. It looks like we have a ways to go. One cubic mile of oil is what the world uses in a year.

[argyle]

Hmm renewable replacing fossil fuels. check out this graphic from IEEE spectrum. It looks like we have a ways to go. One cubic mile of oil is what the world uses in a year.

this graph has been debunked before, there is a link in another topic to TOD where it was discussed..

[JohnDenver]

Hmm renewable replacing fossil fuels. check out this graphic from IEEE spectrum. It looks like we have a ways to go. One cubic mile of oil is what the world uses in a year.

That graphic compares oil's inputs to the other's outputs.
It was debunked by Engineer Poet at the Oil Drum a few years ago.

The graphic ignores the massive losses which occur in the process from well-to-wheels. For example, in converting crude pumped from the ground to the motion of an automobile, roughly 85% of the energy is wasted due to refining, combustion ineffiency, mechanical inefficiency and transmission inefficiency.

This is part of the reason why a segway can move you 20 miles for $0.10, while an ICE car costs you $3.00 (30 times more) for the same distance.

The world is already producing the equivalent of 22 million barrels/day of segway fuel from windmills alone. Even with a slowed growth rate, we should see wind capacity double a couple more times in the next 10 years. That will translate into 88 million barrels/day of EV fuel, from wind alone. That right there is more than the total liquids production of the world in 2009.

There may be some hiccups in the transition to EVs, but clearly there is not going to be any problem due to lack of EV fuel.

[yesplease]

Edit- Beat me to it.

[hardtootell-2]

Hmm renewable replacing fossil fuels. check out this graphic from IEEE spectrum. It looks like we have a ways to go. One cubic mile of oil is what the world uses in a year.

That graphic compares oil's inputs to the other's outputs.
It was debunked by Engineer Poet at the Oil Drum a few years ago.

The world is already producing the equivalent of 22 million barrels/day of segway fuel from windmills alone. Even with a slowed growth rate, we should see wind capacity double a couple more times in the next 10 years. That will translate into 88 million barrels/day of EV fuel, from wind alone. That right there is more than the total liquids production of the world in 2009.

Ok I read it. It doesn't in any way account for the energy needed to replace the fossil fuel infrastructure with "segway" infrastructure.

one of the debunking comments said

A better way of putting it might be:

"The world's annual consumption, one cubic mile of oil, can be replaced by:

* 700 1.1 GW nuclear plants,
* 1,550 500MW coal plants, etc

That clarifies that once you install the plants (or wind turbines, or solar systems) they will replace oil consumption going forward, not just for one year. That's very doable."

[yesplease]

The energy cost depends on the energy source, but solar is probably in the neighborhood of a twentieth to a fortieth of the energy it produces needed for it's construction, depending on the panel type, wind is around a twentieth to a fiftieth depending on the install, nuclear is all over the place, mostly due to the differences in how the fuel is enriched, and so on. Overall, transitioning won't need exorbitant amounts of energy unless we get the bug up our butts to replace everything over the course of one year or something.