[CoachT]

Here we go again. Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again. Watch the next few weeks for a big down turn.

[TheDude]

Why?

[mefistofeles]

You mean $68?

[eastbay]

All the way to $68. That's a huge drop. Wow. What next? $67.90?

[vision-master]

Here we go again. Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again. Watch the next few weeks for a big down turn.

Gas is going to be under $2 gal soon?

[yeahbut]

Here we go again. Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again. Watch the next few weeks for a big down turn.

Yep, you called it alright coach. Course, after that in january you started the "oil will be twenty bucks a barrel by May" thread

[Daniel_Plainview]

Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again.

link?

[copious.abundance]

CoachT did a good job of calling the crash including all the way down to the $40's, but his prediction it would go down to $20 by May did not pan out.

[vision-master]

Those stripper wells will make up the difference.

[mefistofeles]

This is ridiculous. Any calls for other than an incidental short-term oil-price collapse must predicated upon a social/demand implosion. One must be aware that Mexico is collapsing. Mustn't one?

That's why I believe oil prices wil collapse down to $68! Demand is ..............we'll it's not as high as last year so oil prices have to go down to $68!

[yeahbut]

CoachT did a good job of calling the crash including all the way down to the $40's, but his prediction it would go down to $20 by May did not pan out.

So a fifty percent strike rate then remind me why we should listen or care what ol' coach thinks he's seen in his tea leaves this time?

[Daniel_Plainview]

This is ridiculous. Any calls for other than an incidental short-term oil-price collapse must predicated upon a social/demand implosion. One must be aware that Mexico is collapsing. Mustn't one?

Apparently, CoachT is predicting a deflationary depression ... so perhaps he believes we're headed into a Kondratieff winter (K-winter) or the bottom of an Elliot Wave supercycle.

... Paging CoachT ...

[Blacksmith]

I was wrong last time and I am probably wrong this time , but I think oil will be $80US per barrel by the end of the year. Natural Gas is a different story, down to $2.50 per MCF by years end.

[AirlinePilot]

We may very well see a defaltionary spiral, and yes oil could go well below where it is. Do not doubt that at all. We are rapidly approaching some sort of "event horizon" where we see a few things laid bare. I see three things which need to be addressed either by getting in front of them, or they get worked through by collpase of certain systems.

1. Bank Asset fraud

2. Deflationary spiral (followed by another very large leg down in both US and global markets) This is coupled with a bond market dislocation.

3. Dollar collapse.

Each one has its problems and we dont know about a timeline, but one of those is how this crap gets played out. I doubt presently that we have the leadership ability in either finance or government to sidestep the many landmines leading to big problems. While it may be possible to solve all of them, it will be nothing short of miraculous for this to occur.
In any event oil has a very large chance to pullback in the nearer term. if you can hang on though, long term looks very bullish for both Oil and NG. I'm talking about outside 3-5 years here.

[davep]

CoachT did a good job of calling the crash including all the way down to the $40's, but his prediction it would go down to $20 by May did not pan out.

So a fifty percent strike rate then remind me why we should listen or care what ol' coach thinks he's seen in his tea leaves this time?

Let's be fair here. Few if any of us here predicted the price crash. And on fundamentals, I'm not sure why oil has risen so much since.

[CoachT]

Take your blinders off. Demand is down and will continue to drop especially below last year.
Transportation companies are moving tremendously less volume (trucking, railroads, airlines, ships, etc).
Airlines are flying less flights. This quarter is expected to be less than 2001. (If you don't remember 2001 flights almost came to a stand still.)
Employment world wide is the lowest it has been in years and still dropping. Car usage for traveling to work, pleasure, etc has been drastically reduced. People are lowering their thermostats to save money.
Russia's only source of money is to produce more oil and other countries are starting to ignore production quotas.
You all laughed last year but I had the last laugh. Remember I called the downturn at $140.
Think about it and have a good nights sleep.
Talk to you in a few weeks.

[FireJack]

"Russia's only source of money is to produce more oil and other countries are starting to ignore production quotas."

What if Russia oil production drops and other countries have always ignored production quotas. When I look at the collapse of the north sea and mexican oil production rates I can't help but get the sinking feeling that demand will not drop fast enough.

[TheDude]

Airlines are flying less flights. This quarter is expected to be less than 2001. (If you don't remember 2001 flights almost came to a stand still.)

That isn't true for the year to date at all.



Emplanements for this year are sitting in about the median for 2000-2008. VMT is up YOY. You can base a forecast on some massive economic dislocation for the fall, of course. A link to something other than your pessimistic musings would be welcome.

In other respects you are correct, such as the dire state of the shipping industry. Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession | Mail Online

Here, on a sleepy stretch of shoreline at the far end of Asia, is surely the biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history. Their numbers are equivalent to the entire British and American navies combined; their tonnage is far greater. Container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers - all should be steaming fully laden between China, Britain, Europe and the US, stocking camera shops, PC Worlds and Argos depots ahead of the retail pandemonium of 2009. But their water has been stolen.

They are a powerful and tangible representation of the hurricanes that have been wrought by the global economic crisis; an iron curtain drawn along the coastline of the southern edge of Malaysia's rural Johor state, 50 miles east of Singapore harbour.

This begs the question of what has been propping up the crude price in the first place, and why OPEC couldn't just cut more output to defend whatever price they like.

[yesplease]

This begs the question of what has been propping up the crude price in the first place, and why OPEC couldn't just cut more output to defend whatever price they like.

I'm guessing that OPEC is propping up crude prices given the cuts they've made. In the long run, they're looking to maximize the product of volume and price. The problem is, if they set price too high, volume drops too much and they make less. On the flip side, if they don't cut and let price drop too much, volume doesn't increase enough to offset the drop in price, so they shoot for prices that are high enough to offset any drop in volume.