[Lokutus]

Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries

The oil industry has been on a hot streak this year, thanks to a series of major discoveries that have rekindled a sense of excitement across the petroleum sector, despite falling prices and a tough economy.

These discoveries, spanning five continents, are the result of hefty investments that began earlier in the decade when oil prices rose, and of new technologies that allow explorers to drill at greater depths and break tougher rocks.

...

Just this month, BP said that it found a giant deepwater field that might turn out to be the biggest oil discovery ever in the Gulf of Mexico, while Anadarko announced a large find in an “exciting and highly prospective” region off Sierra Leone.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/business/energy-environment/24oil.html

[mos6507]

I love the tone of these sorts of articles. It's like a heroin junkie who lost his supplier and then finds a needle under the sofa cushions.

[PWALPOCO]

Lokutus,

with respect, as you are much more an active and experienced poster than I ever will be, you will know the first thing anyone is going to do with this article is figure out what that oil is worth in terms of perpetuating the status quo. And the answer they are going to come up with is something in the region of 4 months.

I think the main focus of the story should be the worry that after a round of exploration after an incentive boosting $140+ price spike , the best that they could come up with is 10billion barrels !

Dont get me wrong, its good to know that there is more black stuff to be found out there and we have people who are smart enough to find it but as time goes on I think its more and more obvious that in the (near?) future, the decline in future oil production will only be slowed, not reversed.

Paul

[Lokutus]

Here's my position on the Peak Oil Theory: I don't know.

I used to be a believer around 2003-2007.

But both side's have failed to deliver the knock-out punch in terms of evidence.

Now I'm on the fence.

The problem with you guys is that you are like the religious. No matter how much evidence is produced showing that your beliefs are based on a lie, you just dismiss it out of hand instead of considering it.

[PonyBoy78]

Here's my position on the Peak Oil Theory: I don't know.

I used to be a believer around 2003-2007.

But both side's have failed to deliver the knock-out punch in terms of evidence.

Now I'm on the fence.

The problem with you guys is that you are like the religious. No matter how much evidence is produced showing that your beliefs are based on a lie, you just dismiss it out of hand instead of considering it.

Not quite religious. The earth is finite, and I've never seen a situation where an oil well's production miraculously recovers after a period of precipitous decline. Extraction profiles for oil (and many other resources, actually) have been remarkably consistent.

So I know it'll happen.. I just don't know when. Could be this year, but then again it could somehow be six years down the road. As far as I'm concerned, more prep time would be great.

[Maddog78]

A reality check or a bit of perspective.
Even though oil briefly hit $140/bbl exploration budgets were not instantly retooled to reflect this.
New rigs were not immediately ordered up to be built and to go exploring.
The oil industry generally takes a long term view. Usually 5 to 10 years out.
Plans are and were not drastically changed because of a brief few months of record high prices.
No one I know in the industry expected those prices to last and they didn't.

[Lokutus]

Or 50 years?

Or 100 years?

Even the dude at anthropik has unpacked his bug-out bag and is back to leading a normal life.

[PonyBoy78]

Or 50 years?

Or 100 years?

Even the dude at anthropik has unpacked his bug-out bag and is back to leading a normal life.

Reading everything you have, do you really think we can continue this for another 50 years?

Just how long do you think year-over-year demand increases can be met by production?

I think I know where you're going with this. Good luck, whichever path you choose.

[Lokutus]

Well, I do see China as accelerating the the onset of the problem.

However, the peak may still be 25 or 50 years down the road.

I'll probably be dead before 25 years are up.

[mos6507]

Or 50 years?

Or 100 years?

If only fossil fuel depletion were our only worries as a species...

If we're still burning oil in 100 years, we'll all be living in biodomes to escape the toxic soup that has become of our planet due to global warming.

One way or the other we have to get the hell off of fossil fuels.

[mos6507]

However, the peak may still be 25 or 50 years down the road.

I'll probably be dead before 25 years are up.

The original IEA report says 2030. The half-retracted estimate from last month says 2020. I think expecting peak 25-50 years down the road is wishful thinking. Historically the IEA has fudged in a cornucopian direction. If you want to play it safe, think peak oil is 5 years off. That's pretty much what my barometer says. 5-10 years depending on how long the global economy stays down. That's not as close as the whole "this is it" feeling everybody had last year, but it's still close enough that people should get their ducks in a row.

[davep]

I broadly agree, Straker. I would say maybe less than five years with the undulating plateau at a slightly lower level hanging around for a few more years..

[americandream]

Why are you here then? Set up a website of your own and call it "Oil's not going to run out" or whatever and provide us with a forum of dedicated and convincing cornucopianism. Who knows, you may turn us around. But citing journalists who haven't a clue where their next meal is coming from, especially someone named Mouawad from Beirut, is kinda lame.

Here's my position on the Peak Oil Theory: I don't know.
I used to be a believer around 2003-2007.

But both side's have failed to deliver the knock-out punch in terms of evidence.

Now I'm on the fence.

The problem with you guys is that you are like the religious. No matter how much evidence is produced showing that your beliefs are based on a lie, you just dismiss it out of hand instead of considering it.

[Lokutus]

Ooops sorry.

The True Believers shouldn't read my posts.

Make a note.

[americandream]

Selling cornucopia on a website dedicated to sounding the alarm on a commodities depletion issue, irrespective of how passionately deluded you seem to think we are in doing that, is essentially stealing the hard work and dedication of Aaron and the others who are labouring to put out their opinion on what they feel is an important subject.

In addition, we come here for the latest information on depletion. Now when I want information on cornucipia, I don't come here. I go to some other site equally dedicated to the other side of the coin and funded by those who have got off their bums and put their money where their mouths are.

Do the hard yards, set up the site.

Ooops sorry.

The True Believers shouldn't read my posts.

Make a note.

[Lokutus]

Are we thinking of the same Aaron? The one I know is a pretty level-headed guy who can deal with data that contradicts his views. So I'm not worried about him.

However, I am starting to worry about you since you over-react like this to a simple news story. I don't see any cornucopia element in it at all.

You might want to look in the mirror and ask yourself if you're being a tad too evangelical about this.

[Carlhole]

Ooops sorry.

The True Believers shouldn't read my posts.

Make a note.

What about the opposite idea? The Singularity.

What do you think about machine intelligence, humanity perhaps giving birth to new sorts of life paradigms and all that?

[americandream]

Oh puhleeze. You set out to discredit peak oil on a site dedicated to peak oil and directly assail investment in promoting awareness of the subject and you call this an exchange of ideas. Go feel your head.

Put your money where your mouth is if you are of the notion that peak oil is waffle. Do you homework, get the dosh and set up your own site.

edit: I am sure Aaron is tolerant enough to let you vent but I'm calling you out. Run the hardyards dude.

Are we thinking of the same Aaron? The one I know is a pretty level-headed guy who can deal with data that contradicts his views. So I'm not worried about him.

However, I am starting to worry about you since you over-react like this to a simple news story. I don't see any cornucopia element in it at all.

You might want to look in the mirror and ask yourself if you're being a tad too evangelical about this.

[davep]

No matter how much evidence is produced showing that your beliefs are based on a lie

I missed that bit. Please explain how peak oil theory is built on a lie.

For me the only question is when will it happen?

And due to the opacity of reserve figures, none of us really know.

Sure, there'll be more discoveries, but this doesn't make the principle of peak oil a "lie".