Graeme wrote:This quote from his article reveals a weakness in his arguments though:
But total world production of oil does not have another source that it can draw upon when worldwide supplies dwindle, as the United States did back in 1970.
Here is another point of view from industry
experts. I've seen conclusions similar to what is posted in the above in the journal Science. The last 2 conclusions located in the blue box on the left of this article are IMO cause for concern.
Thank you.
Future World Oil Production
World oil production will reach a peak plateau by 2020-40. This was one of several key implications of a Hedberg Research Conference released at the AAPG Annual Convention in Long Beach.
so why not go to the source, the IEA and the WEO 2008 Report.
580 of the largest 800 fields are declining by 8%.
Cantarell at 500,000 bpd, at least a year ahead of schedule. At this
rate will be flatlining at 150,000 bpd in a year.
May2005 was PO. Everything else is cover. The World Economy tells you exactly where we are. now. One convulsion away from the Olduvai.
He, too seems to disregard the Peak Oil story and its implications as the master resource driving growth in industrial economies.
Personally, I am not at all sure that the Peak Oil story, or its associated general resource scarcity story, will shed a whole lot of light on the question of inflation-or-deflation. I say this because I think it is a short way down the road of depletion-and-scarcity before the major complex systems we depend on for daily life become so unstable that general socio-economic collapse ensues. After all, capital finance is only one of these many complex systems -- some other biggies being food production, trade and manufacture, transportation, electric power distribution, infrastructure maintenance, the military, and governance. Inflation-or-deflation will only be symptomatic of larger failures and instabilities in these systems necessary for modern, civilized life.