Together with new discoveries, the increased productivity could make oil last at least another century.
Crap, guess it's back to suburbia!
Double crap, I forgot the link.
Together with new discoveries, the increased productivity could make oil last at least another century.
Pops wrote:About ten years ago these clowns convinced me of Peak Oil Pretty Soon, now...Together with new discoveries, the increased productivity could make oil last at least another century.
Crap, guess it's back to suburbia!
Pops wrote:About ten years ago these clowns convinced me of Peak Oil Pretty Soon, now...Together with new discoveries, the increased productivity could make oil last at least another century.
Crap, guess it's back to suburbia!
mos6507 wrote:The question isn't how long oil will last. It's how long it will remain affordable.
I mean, after all, oil was still available, to a select few, in the world of Mad Max. It was still doom.
What do you consider to be affordable? TOD already had a couple articles on where oil could go and where it was likely to go. For the most part I expect it to stay below $150/bbl because prices that high will cut demand (personal transportation) significantly.mos6507 wrote:The question isn't how long oil will last. It's how long it will remain affordable.
I mean, after all, oil was still available, to a select few, in the world of Mad Max. It was still doom.
As others have pointed out, energy costs and the oil price are limited by the size of the global economy. For example Francois pointed out that $590 / bbl was the theoretical upper limit for the price of oil and that the practical limit was more likely less than $200 / bbl.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
That's the funny thing about reserves. Higher prices tend to reduce demand, so what's available lasts longer, and increase reserves, so now there's more available. What we really need to know is the change in reserves/production wrt the change in price. If oil can go quite high w/o increasing reserves/production then we're effectively at peak in the sense that we'll probably see consistent significant declines in production soon after. If not, then we're still probably on the same bumpy plateau we've been on since ~1970.Pops wrote:About ten years ago these clowns convinced me of Peak Oil Pretty Soon, now...Together with new discoveries, the increased productivity could make oil last at least another century.
Crap, guess it's back to suburbia!
Double crap, I forgot the link.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
SeaGypsy wrote:Since honesty and credibility are not common virtues in the oil industry; the 'answer' as to when HSD's formulaic peak has been reached is unlikely to be detected via his formula. More likely as Orlov and others have been saying the speeding up of demand destruction cycles will be the obvious manifestation of peak. Right now it seems that inertia in the west and eastern growth can be sustained at $70 bl.
How long this will last?
If it were possible to get accurate information from the sources, it might be possible to answer this question.
SeaGypsy wrote:Since honesty and credibility are not common virtues in the oil industry; the 'answer' as to when HSD's formulaic peak has been reached is unlikely to be detected via his formula. More likely as Orlov and others have been saying the speeding up of demand destruction cycles will be the obvious manifestation of peak. Right now it seems that inertia in the west and eastern growth can be sustained at $70 bl.
How long this will last?
If it were possible to get accurate information from the sources, it might be possible to answer this question.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Isn't it closer to the system purportedly being in crisis? As much as it sucks for the unemployed, the great recession is a heck of a lot better than the GD was. I just don't buy the whole economy based on growth lemma. People tend to like growth because it means more stuff, and w/ a growing population, even a steady state economy implies that per capita economic output is dropping, but none of that means our economies can't exist w/o growth. I don't think people would jump for joy, or that elected officials wouldn't promise just about anything, but IRL, people cope w/ a wide variety of conditions w/o seeing TEOTWAWKI.Tanada wrote:The problem with your conclusion is inertia only maintains what already exists, it doesn't grow anything. The entire USA and Canadian economies are based on GROWTH, not a steady state economy, and so even thought they are purportedly shrinking at only a small rate the entire system is in crisis.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
GASMON wrote:The BP 2009 statistical survey states otherwise. Oil 42 years,
Pops wrote:Crap, guess it's back to suburbia!
yesplease wrote:Isn't it closer to the system purportedly being in crisis? As much as it sucks for the unemployed, the great recession is a heck of a lot better than the GD was. I just don't buy the whole economy based on growth lemma. People tend to like growth because it means more stuff, and w/ a growing population, even a steady state economy implies that per capita economic output is dropping, but none of that means our economies can't exist w/o growth. I don't think people would jump for joy, or that elected officials wouldn't promise just about anything, but IRL, people cope w/ a wide variety of conditions w/o seeing TEOTWAWKI.Tanada wrote:The problem with your conclusion is inertia only maintains what already exists, it doesn't grow anything. The entire USA and Canadian economies are based on GROWTH, not a steady state economy, and so even thought they are purportedly shrinking at only a small rate the entire system is in crisis.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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