[MarkJ]

Wait Until 2017 Before Job Market Recovers

In a depressing new report, two Rutgers professors predict that it will take more than seven years to restore the health of the nation’s labor market to prerecession levels.

The report, released on Wednesday, says that even if the nation adds more than two million jobs annually over the next seven years, that will barely offset what the authors see as a giant employment deficit.

The large employment deficit, the report says, was created by the loss of 7.1 million private-sector jobs since the recession began in December 2007 and by the economy’s failure to keep up with labor-force growth — that is, the increasing number of people who want jobs — during the recession.

To return to the labor market conditions of 2007, the report said the nation would not only need to offset the 1.3 million annual increase in the labor force, but would also need to compensate for the job losses suffered during the recession. Given conservative estimates of further declines in employment, the Rutgers professors see an overall employment deficit of 9.4 million private-sector jobs by December 2009.

“Erasing this deficit will require substantial and sustained employment growth,” the report said. Even with an optimistic picture for job growth, the report said, it will take years before the nation returns to prerecession labor market conditions.

The report notes that the economic expansion from November 2001 to December 2007 added 6.2 million private-sector jobs, or 1.0 million a year. It compared that with the creation of 21.5 million private-sector jobs during the expansion from March 1991 to March 2001, coming to 2.15 million a year, and the addition of 18.4 million private-sector jobs during the economic expansion from November 1982 to July 1990, amounting to 2.4 million jobs per year.

“Even if the nation could add 2.15 million private-sector jobs per year starting in January 2010,” the report said, “it would need to maintain this pace for more than 7 straight years (7.63 years), or until August 2017, to eliminate the jobs deficit!”

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/ ... port-says/

[hardtootell-2]

Oh Joy! If the jobs situation is that dismal anyone want to guess what the "self employment" arena will look like?
I guessed we would have a 10 yr depression back in 2007 and made moves accordingly.The farm does look a lot better than living on the streets...

[mcgowanjm]

years to restore the health of the nation’s labor market to prerecession levels.

Which is why hyperinflation doesn't happen.

There must be wage concessions by the owners. Any
raises now would be accompanied by layoffs/firings.

[hardtootell-2]

I love this comment from that story:

2017?……I am hungry now.
Should we go into hypersleep or hibernation until then waking up with Rip-Van Winkle foot long beards(and that’s just the women).
All the more effort to have the National Academy of Sciences working on a time machine or worm hole to a less bleak future.
I remember when we were supposed to dread 1984 then the Year YK2. Those years turned out to be pretty good ones. Got to remember the next time I am in the library to read more Nostradamus. I predict we will all have beards like him.

MAKE YOUR DESTINY TODAY.
— Drill-Baby-Drill Drill Team

[Daniel_Plainview]

One wonders whether Pelosi & Co. will continue to extend UE benefits until 2017 for those currently unemployed ...

[UncoveringTruths]

How will Baby Boomer retirements effect the jobs picture?

Approximately 35,000 people turn 65 every month in U.S. (This is
enough people to fill up the U of U Rice-Eccles Stadium.) The 65 to 74
age group experienced a relative slow rate of growth 1990-2000 because
this age group reflects a relative low number of births in the late
1920's and 1930's. This trend will reverse as the baby boomers (born
1946-1964) reach 65 starting in 2011 (first of boomers turned age 50
in 1996).?

Over the next 25 years the elderly population will increase by almost
80% due to aging baby boomers.?

Boomers will begin to reach 75 in 2021 creating a dramatic rise in
the demand for health care.

America's 77 million baby boomers are aging. The first of them turned
50 on Jan. 1, 1996. Fifteen years into the third millennium they will
become the largest generation of retirees in American history.

[Pops]

The highest sectors (this is the regular unemployment # - I don't know where to find the "alternate" number broken out)
17% - Construction
13% - durable goods manf.
11.4% - Leisure and hospitality

The lowest unemployment of course is government and
Self employed and unpaid family workers!

[rangerone314]

How will Baby Boomer retirements effect the jobs picture?

Approximately 35,000 people turn 65 every month in U.S. (This is
enough people to fill up the U of U Rice-Eccles Stadium.) The 65 to 74
age group experienced a relative slow rate of growth 1990-2000 because
this age group reflects a relative low number of births in the late
1920's and 1930's. This trend will reverse as the baby boomers (born
1946-1964) reach 65 starting in 2011 (first of boomers turned age 50
in 1996).?

Over the next 25 years the elderly population will increase by almost
80% due to aging baby boomers.?

Boomers will begin to reach 75 in 2021 creating a dramatic rise in
the demand for health care.

America's 77 million baby boomers are aging. The first of them turned
50 on Jan. 1, 1996. Fifteen years into the third millennium they will
become the largest generation of retirees in American history.

77 million is a lot of people. A shame they can't be drafted (exception: Vietnam vets) and sent to fight in Afghanistan, instead of the 20-year old volunteers whose futures the Boomers have destroyed.

[Tyler_JC]

But why are we assuming that 65-year-olds will be able to retire?

Many of them will desperately attempt to stay in the labor force working any jobs they can.

Millions of these people have no serious savings and large mortgages.

Talk to lower middle class people in their early 60s who have lost most of their nest eggs in the housing/financial crash of the past couple years. They haven't been saving enough money and they just can't afford to retire.

It's a catch twenty-two. We will either have millions of impoverished elderly people attempting to survive on ever shrinking Social Security checks or millions of elderly people desperately trying to find work at Wally World or anywhere else they can. Most likely some combination of the two.

[Sixstrings]

The report notes that the economic expansion from November 2001 to December 2007 added 6.2 million private-sector jobs, or 1.0 million a year. It compared that with the creation of 21.5 million private-sector jobs during the expansion from March 1991 to March 2001, coming to 2.15 million a year, and the addition of 18.4 million private-sector jobs during the economic expansion from November 1982 to July 1990, amounting to 2.4 million jobs per year./

Hm, looks like with each expansion fewer jobs are created than in the previous expansion. And those jobs added during the Bush years was a lot of McJobs.. crappy wages, crappy benefits.

the report said the nation would not only need to offset the 1.3 million annual increase in the labor force

This is what I brought up in the "w/ population growth jobs recovery impossible" thread. We had to blow a massive real estate bubble just to get growth of 2.15 million per year between 01 and 07.. even ASSUMING we can pull that off again with some other bubble (bubbles are all we got now, we don't make stuff anymore), that would still be only 850k above population growth. So that's how these professors get their 8 year timeframe.

But again, this is all assuming we pull off another expansion similar to the Bush years. And it's also assuming green shoots right here and now, with 179k jobs added starting next month.

[MarkJ]

Hm, looks like with each expansion fewer jobs are created than in the previous expansion. And those jobs added during the Bush years was a lot of McJobs.. crappy wages, crappy benefits.

Since semi-skilled wages have stagnated or fallen while minimum wages have increased, the lower paying unskilled jobs of the past pay as much, or pay more than semi-skilled jobs.


Currently, we can hire semi-skilled workers with trucks, tools, multiple skills and years of experience for $8 to $10 per hour. Grocery store, convenience store, drug store, warehouse and home health care workers often make as much, if not more money.

One of our business associates pays his "Green Job" alternative heating and solar equipment installers less than our 19 old niece makes in an unskilled job, plus our niece has better benefits and better working conditions.

[hardtootell-2]

It is the same thing everyday in my city of 1 million+. I look at the professional engineering/tech jobs posted on job search sites like monster over the last 6 months. There are only a couple of reposts for exotic specialties that cannot be filled. No new Jobs. Occasionally I hear anecdotal reports of huge layoffs. The employers don't want the media coverage. At most 4 jobs posted per day and most are not new. In the "good ol days" there was 30-50 new jobs per day. The people I can see on LINKED-IN are embarrassingly over qualified and you can see that they have been out of work for > 6 months. Professionals are going to be competing with blue hairs and pimply teens for wal-mart greeter jobs.

[Sixstrings]

It is the same thing everyday in my city of 1 million+. I look at the professional engineering/tech jobs posted on job search sites like monster over the last 6 months. There are only a couple of reposts for exotic specialties that cannot be filled. No new Jobs. Occasionally I hear anecdotal reports of huge layoffs. The employers don't want the media coverage. At most 4 jobs posted per day and most are not new. In the "good ol days" there was 30-50 new jobs per day. The people I can see on LINKED-IN are embarrassingly over qualified and you can see that they have been out of work for > 6 months. Professionals are going to be competing with blue hairs and pimply teens for wal-mart greeter jobs.

I wonder how that job site "theladders" is doing? They run ads on TV, their slogan used to be "100K+ jobs for 100k+ people."

Seems to me if somebody who's out of work is walking around convinced he's a "100k+ person" then he's in for a disappointment more often than not.

[SeaGypsy]

It is the same thing everyday in my city of 1 million+. I look at the professional engineering/tech jobs posted on job search sites like monster over the last 6 months. There are only a couple of reposts for exotic specialties that cannot be filled. No new Jobs. Occasionally I hear anecdotal reports of huge layoffs. The employers don't want the media coverage. At most 4 jobs posted per day and most are not new. In the "good ol days" there was 30-50 new jobs per day. The people I can see on LINKED-IN are embarrassingly over qualified and you can see that they have been out of work for > 6 months. Professionals are going to be competing with blue hairs and pimply teens for wal-mart greeter jobs.

I wonder how that job site "theladders" is doing? They run ads on TV, their slogan used to be "100K+ jobs for 100k+ people."

Seems to me if somebody who's out of work is walking around convinced he's a "100k+ person" then he's in for a disappointment more often than not.

Alice Spings Australia:

218 jobs 30,000 people.

http://www.seek.com.au/jobsearch/index. ... from=quick

[Sixstrings]

Alice Spings Australia:

218 jobs 30,000 people.

That's just about the same number of openings as the county where I live -- except our population is 315,000.

Half the openings are for healthcare.. a significant number of the other ads are filler (work at home scams, selling vacuums door-to-door, ads that are for training and not jobs). Oh, and lots of $8-10 an hour shady call center work (collections, fundraising scams, tele-scams of every flavor).

Man, Australia is tiny! My little county in the US has 1/7 the population of the Australian nation.

EDIT: Thanks for posting that SeaGyp, kind of interesting to peruse a foreign job market. The wages look high to me.. customer service positions look to be paying around $18 US per hour.

For example, there's an ad for a retail customer service rep for a company called "Telstra" paying $44,700. That works out to 39k US per year. In the US, the only customer service job that pays those wages are at the middle management level (and even 39k is a tad high, 35k is more average).

So anyhow SeaGypsy, help me compare this further. What are the taxes on that $44,700? What about helathcare, is that nationalized? Is there any amount of vacation time guaranteed in Australia?

[nobodypanic]

It is the same thing everyday in my city of 1 million+. I look at the professional engineering/tech jobs posted on job search sites like monster over the last 6 months. There are only a couple of reposts for exotic specialties that cannot be filled. No new Jobs. Occasionally I hear anecdotal reports of huge layoffs. The employers don't want the media coverage. At most 4 jobs posted per day and most are not new. In the "good ol days" there was 30-50 new jobs per day. The people I can see on LINKED-IN are embarrassingly over qualified and you can see that they have been out of work for > 6 months. Professionals are going to be competing with blue hairs and pimply teens for wal-mart greeter jobs.

good.

let them get a real good taste of how wonderful the free market system truly is.

it is only when those more educated segments of the population begin to see the ugly reality of what this beast really is that we have any chance for social change.

[hardtootell-2]

It is the same thing everyday in my city of 1 million+. I look at the professional engineering/tech jobs posted on job search sites like monster over the last 6 months. There are only a couple of reposts for exotic specialties that cannot be filled. No new Jobs. Occasionally I hear anecdotal reports of huge layoffs. The employers don't want the media coverage. At most 4 jobs posted per day and most are not new. In the "good ol days" there was 30-50 new jobs per day. The people I can see on LINKED-IN are embarrassingly over qualified and you can see that they have been out of work for > 6 months. Professionals are going to be competing with blue hairs and pimply teens for wal-mart greeter jobs.

good.

let them get a real good taste of how wonderful the free market system truly is.

it is only when those more educated segments of the population begin to see the ugly reality of what this beast really is that we have any chance for social change.

Can you suggest a positive way forward?

[vilemerchant]

Alice Spings Australia:
218 jobs 30,000 people.

For example, there's an ad for a retail customer service rep for a company called "Telstra" paying $44,700. That works out to 39k US per year. In the US, the only customer service job that pays those wages are at the middle management level (and even 39k is a tad high, 35k is more average).

So anyhow SeaGypsy, help me compare this further. What are the taxes on that $44,700? What about helathcare, is that nationalized? Is there any amount of vacation time guaranteed in Australia?

I'll jump in here. For starters 'Telstra' is absolutely massive. Now privatised but used to be a 100% government-owned monopoly and dominates the telco market despite being a pack of ripoff merchants.

On $44,700 you would pay $7260 in tax, health care is completely taxpayer funded. If you earn over 50K or something you have to pay extra tax (1% I think), but only if you choose not to have private health insurance.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Actually a large portion of the world's people including the American are economically surplus asfar as the labor market is concerned.