[evgeny]

Russia was concentrating on its own problems the last 20 years and Russia could stabilize its own economic, financial and military situation.
Russia is actually very rich and has a very modern army while the USA and all Western countries are about to collapse with their immense deficits.
I hardly can imagine that just the EU which is about to disband will be able to draw a clear line to Russia.
The NATO which is about to disband as well is turning more and more into a weak institution.
The resting military super-powers in the world, Great Britain and the USA are occupied with their wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and probably soon with the next war in Iran.
The wars are exploiting the economies of Britain and the USA as well and the USA are the biggest debtor to China.
So, which country should face Russia and draw a clear line?
France has its own economic problems and all the other European countries would never be a threat to Russia for drawing a line as you hope.
Germany is neither a military nor a political factor in this European game and stays fortunately neutral to this development.
The rest of Europe will have to get used to the fact that Russia will have not only more economic but also political weight in Europe and Germany was doing the best by offering friendly relationships to Russia.
I am quite sure that many things in central Europe will be influenced in the future more and more by the Russian politics while the American influence will diminish.
Europe was not able and not willing to overcome its old rifts and to find a new common base of policy.
Probably Europe will get divided again into different economical and political centers.
We will have probably new rifts and bigger contrasts in Europe as we ever had before.

[evgeny]

Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario

A great deal of potential synergy exists between the German and Russian economies.
The current economic problems may lead to a fundamental weakening of the European Union. Germany is economically powerful but needs economic coalition partners that contribute to German well-being rather than merely draw on it. A Russian-German relationship could logically emerge from this. The former would begin as economic and edge toward military. The Russian-German bloc would attempt to bring others into its coalition.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100524 ... 22cb43ae5c

[Fishman]

Evgeny
I finally agree with you! It now looks like Europe is turning into a steaming pile of s%%t, sort of like Russia over the last two decades! You can have' em.
Perhaps China in all it's great history of human rights will make a better trading partner and business friend.

[rangerone314]

Chinese immigrants will eventually overrun Russia and make Russia (especially Siberia) a small province of China demographically (at least more successfully than the Mongols who only moderately raped their way into the Russian gene pool). Such a large empire will of course collapse into chaos.

Just like illegal immigrants will demographically remake the US into the image of Mexico, complete with grenade throwing drug gangs and cops who demand money to hand your drivers licence back to you.

All empires are evil, and all evil empires end (replaced by barbarians who tear monuments down to make walls and fortifications)

The future is going to be so much fun.

[dorlomin]

[sparky]

.
This pyramid is fascinating , one can see all the history of Russia for the last century
the dip are per year of birth ....
10 ..... the near total societal collapse of the fall of communism
20..... the natality crisis of late Brezhnev
40......the " empty generations " of all the missing dead fathers
65..... the war followed by the bounce and Khrushchev good times
75..... the yejovchina , the great terror

there is a great asymmetry between men and women survival rate ,much higher than normal
this can be accounted by two world wars a civil war, waves of terror purges and a very serious alcoholism ,
the Soviet public health was not too bad in general
quite good for the kids and the general population it was not focused on the old folks
.

[AdamB]

Higher shipments of Russian crude oil to China may saddle European importers with a fatter bill, an industry consultancy warned at the end of last year, noting the latest stage of Russia’s Eastern pivot: the launch of the expanded East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline that would lift Urals crude supply to China twofold, to 30 million tons annually. FGE said in a note quoted by Bloomberg that Russia will start moving more Urals eastward right after the launch of the pipeline extension, at a rate of 160,000 bpd. The overall increase of Russian crude shipments to China, according to the consultancy, could be around 200,000 bpd. This means less oil for Europe, which is Russia’s number-one oil client. This only highlights the significance of Moscow’s Asian pivot amid lingering European sanctions following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and Russia’s involvement in separatist conflicts

Europe Becomes Victim Of Russia’s Newest Oil Strategy

[Tanada]

Don't forget they are expanding Natural Gas pipeline capacity in the direction of China as well meaning even without the Ukraine transit pipeline they will soon be able to sell all their production through NordStream to western Europe and east to China through the new capacity. Very soon the Ukraine pipeline will be irrelevant and no payment means other customers will get the gas, not that a massive sympathy offensive will continue to succeed.

[dissident]

Gotta love the victimhood BS from the precious west. "Europe becomes victim"? F*ck off. Europe has been trying to sabotage Nord Stream II and succeeded in killing South Stream. Europe is the clear victimizer and a retarded one at that. Now that the consequences of its aggression against Russia are coming home to roost, it acts like its vagina has been violated.

Underneath all that pretentious prattle about being the guiding beacon of civilization is a barbarian core. Europe is always itching for a drang nach osten. Russia is always demonized and underestimated. Eu-tards need to understand this: Russians are getting sick and tired of the one-note Johnny western hate. Any more Barbarossa attempts will be met with a final solution response. There will be no commies in charge who are too worried about internationalism.

[AdamB]

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is lashing out against Russia's plans to open a natural gas pipeline to supply energy to Germany, saying Saturday that it threatens stability in the region. "Like Poland, the United States opposes the Nord Stream 2 pipeline," Tillerson said while at a joint press conference in Warsaw with Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski. "We see it as undermining Europe's overall energy security and stability," Tillerson continued. "Our opposition is driven by our mutual strategic interests." Russia is a top supplier of natural gas to Europe, which the Trump administration is seeking to change by encouraging the export of U.S. natural gas exports into the European market now that the U.S. is a top producer of the fuel. Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that is still being constructed would supply Germany and other parts of Europe with the

Rex Tillerson says ‘stability’ threatened by Russian pipeline

[theluckycountry]

Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario

A Russian-German relationship could logically emerge from this. The former would begin as economic and edge toward military. The Russian-German bloc would attempt to bring others into its coalition.

Ahhh, No. Your prognostitaion score, 0%

Chinese immigrants will eventually overrun Russia and make Russia (especially Siberia) a small province of China demographically
Just like illegal immigrants will demographically remake the US into the image of Mexico, complete with grenade throwing drug gangs and cops who demand money to hand your drivers licence back to you.

The future is going to be so much fun.

Well things are on track for part two of this prognostication so a score of 50% is warranted I guess.

Who would have thought a mere 5 years ago that things would have turned out as they did. China was still a chatty toaster manufacturer in the eyes of the Western media and Russia's value in would affairs ignored basically. China certainly has some issues financially, but it's population is under control and it now has premium access to energy from Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and food from Brazil and soon the other major SA nations. Chatty toasters for oil and wheat. The west is screwed but it's been a good run, 400 odd years.

[Plantagenet]

China certainly has some issues financially, but it's population is under control and it now has premium access to energy from Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and food from Brazil and soon the other major SA nations......The west is screwed but it's been a good run, 400 odd years.

Demographics is destiny----and because of demographics actually its China that is screwed.

The problem with dictatorships like China is that every decision on every issue is made at the top.....and if the top guy makes a single stupid mistake it can put the entire country on the wrong track.

And that is exactly what has happened in china.

The CCCP instituted the "one child" policy back in the 1970s.....and didn't repeal it until 2016.

The "single child" policy has turned out to be a stupid mistake.

China's demographics are now "upside down, ie it has many older people then younger people. This will have damaging effects on the Chinese economy, some of which are becoming obvious to all now.



AND China is being very severely affected by global warming....which is a kind of poetic justice since China emits far more CO2 than any other country. China has always been ravaged by famines, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another series of famines hit China as global warming causes crop failures in China.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Demographics is destiny----and because of demographics actually its China that is screwed.

That's just the opinion of zeihan's and the others and I don't see any problem for China even if it's population dropped by 50%. Population growth is the mantra of the past 300 odd years, it allowed you to grow the economy, but now we have reached the limits to growth we need to retrace to a more sustainable level. You don't need an army of 100 million and you don't need 100 million on the tools either. All you need is a modest population and energy to have a thriving economy. Australia has had a tiny population for ever, Norway is only like 8 million and look at them!

It's a myth this business of needing a growing population. You only need it to feed a debt based corporate nation with elaborate social security nets, you need it for cheap labor, that's why the US and all the other degenerate western nations have open doors to refugees. It bolsters the tax base. The bubonic plague killed up to 65% of the population of Europe and when the dust settled it was great there! Plenty for everyone. Look at the mass killings in WWII, and the world was better after it. The great purges of Russia and China likewise. Nothing wrong with population reduction, it's the opposite that is destroying the Earth's biosphere now.

[Newfie]

Zeihen’s paying clients are international capitalist, so his comments need to heard in that context. For THEM running THAT MODEL the comments are correct.

He addresses degrowth in a back door way by pointing to how societies can transition from the current growth model to something else. Take Japan for instance, he has pointed out how they have retained their intellectual capacity while off shoring production, thus they have, so far, rode the demographic collapse. But he also notes that this model is not going to work in the future as the factory countries get a raising pay scale.

IMHO reducing human population is a huge move in the right direction. But that will require abandonment of the existing capital intensive global model. What replaces that is not at all clear and the grey beards will resist. But it is happening.

As far as I cal tell Ziehan makes no predictions about what China, Russia, EU, will look like in 50 years. He does not try to guide how the downfall rolls out.

If you take Zeihan as merely a predictor of short term EFFECTS then his forecasts are valuable. If you try to read social into it moralizing then they don’t work. They are a tool.

[Newfie]

Stumbled across this today.

T-Platforms, a Russian company with ambitions to build exascale supercomputers and develop domestic CPUs, was officially declared bankrupt in October 2022. T-Platforms had been among the few Russian companies capable of producing supercomputers that could compete on a global scale. T-Platform's bankruptcy proceedings have led to the auctioning of various assets, including the intellectual property, patents, and shares of Baikal Electronics. The IP is related to the development of Baikal processors, which rely on the Arm and MIPS instruction set architectures.

The technology being auctioned is outdated, to say the least. The Baikal-M1 processor, for instance, is based on eight outdated Arm Cortex-A57 cores operating at 1.50 GHz and outfitted with an 8MB L3 cache that is accompanied by an eight-cluster Arm Mali-T628 GPU with two display pipelines. TSMC made the SoC on its 28nm fabrication process. Meanwhile, Baikal's 48-core Baikal-S SoC for servers has never entered mass production. Since both processors are now obsolete, Baikal's assets have been valued at 484 million rubles ($5 million). The auction is scheduled for September 26, 2023.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/russi ... r5-million

[theluckycountry]

Finland to shut down half of border crossing with Russia

The Prime Minister said the decision was made because “in recent months more people have been trying to cross the border with incomplete travel documents.” Previously, Russia did not allow those with such problems to cross.

In addition, according to Finnish border guards, 280 Russians have legally entered the country through the eastern border since September 2023.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/16/ ... th-russia/

Meanwhile from the other end of Finland for the last decade.

Sep, 2015 About a thousand asylum seekers arrived in Tornio on Saturday from Sweden, according to Aila Ylinärä from Tornio parish. Ylinärä said the number of newcomers on Sunday was high but she could not evaluate the exact number.

https://www.finlandtimes.fi/national/20 ... -continues

But Now!

Jun 19, 2023 · THE FINNISH REFUGEE COUNCIL has voiced its alarm about the asylum and immigration policy outlines forwarded in the newly published government

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... mmigration

This whole business of isolating Russia from the west couldn't have happened at a better time for their population. It's really been a boon for them.

Muslim cleric on refugee influx: “We shall conquer their countries”

In an address delivered at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Sheikh Muhammad Ayed said that the European countries are not motivated by compassion toward the refugees, but by their need for labor. “We shall conquer their countries,” he declared in the address, which was posted on the internet on September 11, 2015.

...the Germans say, in their economic reports, that they need 50,000 young workers. Now, they have got 20,000, and they want another 30,000 and more, to work in their factories. They are not motivated by compassion for the Levant, its people, and its refugees. Throughout Europe, all the hearts are infused with hatred toward Muslims. They wish that we were dead. But they have lost their fertility, so they look for fertility in their midst. We will give them fertility! We will breed children with them, because we shall conquer their countries – whether you like it or not, oh Germans, oh Americans, oh French, oh Italians, and all those like you. Take the refugees! We shall soon collect them in the name of the coming Caliphate.

https://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/09/musl ... -countries

Well it's a plan, and it seems to be working.

[theluckycountry]

The West stole Russian capital abroard and imposed santions, which though they backfired were none the less a slap in the face. Well as Western Europe grapples with finding enough Gas to run it's homes and industries, Russia is giving a little of its own. This happens in War btw.

Germany’s Wintershall Dea and Austria’s OMV are being stripped of their multi-billion-dollar stakes in joint ventures developing natural gas projects in Russia under a decree by Vladimir Putin.

The Russian president has signed a decree ordering that the shares of the two Western energy companies in the Yuzhno-Russkoye field and in the Achimov projects in Russia’s Arctic be transferred to newly set up Russian firms. According to Putin’s decree, all corporate agreements that have been in force so far are no longer valid.

The move is part of Russia’s efforts to protect its national interests “amid the illegal and unfriendly actions of the West in relation to Russian assets,” according to the decree cited by Reuters. Wintershall Dea is in the process of exiting Russian operations while OMV announced an exit last year. Commenting on Putin’s latest decree, a spokesperson for Wintershall Dea told Reuters in a written response to questions that “The presidential decree is further confirmation: Russia is no longer a reliable economic partner and is unpredictable - in every respect.”

BASF told Reuters on Wednesday it learned of the order for asset seizures from the news and it was in the process of analyzing all the facts. OMV and Wintershall Dea are not the first major Western oil and gas firms to have their Russian assets transferred to newly created Russian entities.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... tures.html

[Tanada]

The West stole Russian capital abroad and imposed sanctions, which though they backfired were none the less a slap in the face. Well as Western Europe grapples with finding enough Gas to run it's homes and industries, Russia is giving a little of its own. This happens in War btw.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... tures.html

Yup the EU/UK/USA forgot one simple rule. Blockades only work if you have your chosen enemy surrounded.

Russia had been doing as much business with the rest of the world as it was with the ones trying to impose sanctions. Even worse Russia had experienced sanction disruptions in the past and had sought out robust means of working around them over the last two decades. End result, Russia is doing just fine without direct EU/UK/USA trade and even worse the EU especially Germany is very adversely effected by the loss of Russian Natural Gas supplies. Not only was the USA not set up to export the needed quantities to the EU, the loss of the Nordstream pipelines that Russia was still prepared to sell gas through as per prior contract agreements has been destroyed and Russia may never see a reason to restore it unless they get some serious concessions from Germany. Concessions like say Germany leaving NATO.

This realpolitik new world order is slowly sinking in for the politicians in the EU and even more slowly in the USA. The UK politicians are too schizo to predict at all they are starting to remind me of France circa 1938!

Meanwhile the Russian economy hums along supplying Asia including sales and trade with South Korea, the Philippines and Japan erstwhile allies of the USA.

[theluckycountry]

This realpolitik new world order is slowly sinking in for the politicians in the EU and even more slowly in the USA. The UK politicians are too schizo to predict at all they are starting to remind me of France circa 1938!

Meanwhile the Russian economy hums along supplying Asia including sales and trade with South Korea, the Philippines and Japan erstwhile allies of the USA.

Whether you look at the work of Strauss and Howe on "Generations: The History of America's Future" or Tainter's "Collapse of Complex Societies", or just look at the last 400 years of history, it's evident that every 80~100 years there is a seismic shift in world power Tanada. Then of course there is the 400 year cycles, very disruptive those ones! Something big is in the wind, something none of us could probably imagine or care to imagine. As you point out though, nations are positioning themselves, taking sides or shifting allegiances for their own good, while others are seemingly content to go down with the flood.

Add to that the end of oil, the end of abundance, the end of fossil fuel farming and I care not to even think about it some days. But in all eras there have been men discussing these matters in small groups while the rest of civilization carries on with their daily struggles, oblivious to the bigger picture. I feel privileged to be one of those aware of these changes, to be able to walk through them with like minded people who are 'awake'. It's cathartic.

[Plantagenet]

....the Russian economy hums along supplying Asia

Yup.

Putin just announced that Russia is exporting MORE oil than it did before Covid.

Biden's "sanctions" on Russian oil exports have clearly failed.

But just today Biden has announced NEW SANCTIONS on Russia.

This time he's going after Russian sea food exports!!!

fact-sheet-biden-administration-expands-u-s-sanctions-authorities-to-target-financial-facilitators-of-russias-war-machine

Cheers!