[Graeme]

Peak oil before 2020 a 'significant risk', say experts

A new report highlights how woefully unprepared the Government is for a looming peak in oil production
There is a 'significant risk' that conventional oil production will peak before 2020, and forecasts that delay the event beyond 2030 are based on assumptions that are 'at best optimistic and at worst implausible'.

So says a major new report that puts the excitement over recent ‘giant’ oil discoveries into perspective and directly contradicts the British government’s position. It also warns that failure to recognise the threat of peak oil could undermine efforts to combat climate change.

The report, entitled 'Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production', comes from the UK Energy Research Centre, an independent group funded by the Research Councils, whose mission is to resolve contentious technical issues and deliver clear guidance for policymakers.

theecologist

[KevO]

2020?

not 2005 or 2008 or 2009?

[Daniel_Plainview]

...The UKERC found that total production from existing fields is declining at 4 per cent or more each year, meaning the world has to add 3 million barrels of daily production capacity annually just to stand still, equivalent to developing a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will present 'a major challenge, even if ‘above-ground’ conditions are favourable', says the report.

The UKERC argues that each additional 1 billion barrels delays peak oil by less than a week. To postpone the peak by a year would take 7 times what was discovered in 2007. 'We’re unlikely to explore our way out of this,' says Sorrell.

Hah! Cornies lose.

[lowem]

Hell yes.

Long after the final level boss eats your player for lunch and the screen has stopped flashing "GAME OVER" in very large letters, we'll have the academic committees coming up to tell you that there is a "significant risk" that you may lose the game due to statistical probabilities of winning based on *their* modelling of *your* past performance.

Ah, where was I? Yes. "GAME OVER". We've already peaked. All that's left are the semi-crazy (or fully crazy take your pick) sources labelled unconventional, deep-sea, shale, and right ... methane hydrates.

[mcgowanjm]

Ah, where was I? Yes. "GAME OVER". We've already peaked. All that's left are the semi-crazy (or fully crazy take your pick) sources labelled unconventional, deep-sea, shale, and right ... methane hydrates.

Thank you.

[shortonsense]

...The UKERC found that total production from existing fields is declining at 4 per cent or more each year, meaning the world has to add 3 million barrels of daily production capacity annually just to stand still, equivalent to developing a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will present 'a major challenge, even if ‘above-ground’ conditions are favourable', says the report.

The UKERC argues that each additional 1 billion barrels delays peak oil by less than a week. To postpone the peak by a year would take 7 times what was discovered in 2007. 'We’re unlikely to explore our way out of this,' says Sorrell.

Hah! Cornies lose.

Really? Peak conventional ( the "peaker" kind of oil ) was 4 years ago. Which means, according to your quoted section, we've discovered 4/3 Saudi Arabia's since 2005.

I don't suppose anyone can point out exactly where these 1.33 Saudi Arabia's are, because I certainly didn't see them mentioned prominently anywhere? Did they join OPEC? Are they being hidden by the same gang who flew the drones into the Towers, or faked the moon landings? I demand to know where those 1.33 Saudi Arabia's are!! Perhaps we can petition Savinar and he can convince Roscoe Bartlett to investigate at the Congressional level?

So, if the "a new Saudi Arabia every 3 years" isn't all its cracked up to be, that oil is certainly coming from somewhere. Maybe those Cornies are on to something? Certainly the oil is coming from SOMEWHERE.

[rangerone314]

...The UKERC found that total production from existing fields is declining at 4 per cent or more each year, meaning the world has to add 3 million barrels of daily production capacity annually just to stand still, equivalent to developing a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will present 'a major challenge, even if ‘above-ground’ conditions are favourable', says the report.

The UKERC argues that each additional 1 billion barrels delays peak oil by less than a week. To postpone the peak by a year would take 7 times what was discovered in 2007. 'We’re unlikely to explore our way out of this,' says Sorrell.

Hah! Cornies lose.

Really? Peak conventional ( the "peaker" kind of oil ) was 4 years ago. Which means, according to your quoted section, we've discovered 4/3 Saudi Arabia's since 2005.

I don't suppose anyone can point out exactly where these 1.33 Saudi Arabia's are, because I certainly didn't see them mentioned prominently anywhere? Did they join OPEC? Are they being hidden by the same gang who flew the drones into the Towers, or faked the moon landings? I demand to know where those 1.33 Saudi Arabia's are!! Perhaps we can petition Savinar and he can convince Roscoe Bartlett to investigate at the Congressional level?

So, if the "a new Saudi Arabia every 3 years" isn't all its cracked up to be, that oil is certainly coming from somewhere. Maybe those Cornies are on to something? Certainly the oil is coming from SOMEWHERE.

I think that actual OIL PRODUCED maxed out in 2005. Oil that COULD HAVE BEEN PRODUCED probably did not max out in 2005, because of not pumping to full capacity. There was probably little or no spare capacity left in 2008.

[mos6507]

We haven't "peaked" in my mind until we're well over $150/bbl and stay there. All those other metrics are meaningless to me.

[Tanada]

We haven't "peaked" in my mind until we're well over $150/bbl and stay there. All those other metrics are meaningless to me.

Dollar price is not a good measure, the inflation bubble about to hit us will easily breach $150.00 If or when the oil exporting countries stop accepting Dollars as payment for petroleum and LNG. That gives two separate scenario's for very expensive oil in the USA without guaranteeing that we have passed peak.

[ian807]

The only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

On the good/bad news front, prices will shoot *way* up before then, making the long tail of oil last longer, hopefully giving us the breathing space to get more new energy technologies somewhere near practical.

[mos6507]

Dollar price is not a good measure,

But it's presumably what we're concerned about. I don't really care about dating peak oil. It's a means to an end. You date peak oil in order to anticipate when the sh*t hits the fan. Well, at $70 the sh*t won't hit the fan. Now maybe depletion will rapidly catch up with depressed demand and then the sh*t hits the fan. We're in uncharted territory, though. This isn't the way it was predicted to happen.

[shortonsense]

The only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

Oh my god PLEASE ALREADY!!!

[shortonsense]

We haven't "peaked" in my mind until we're well over $150/bbl and stay there. All those other metrics are meaningless to me.

Well sir, THAT would certainly toss the bell shaped curve based on PRODUCTION right out the window, wouldn't it?

Here's the problem....$150/BBL caused demand destruction WAY out of scale with field decline. We need to balance price off against field decline so that demand only goes down fast enough to balance, and apparently $150 was too high. Maybe $130/BBL would lead to "sustainable" production and demand slide?

[mcgowanjm]

Maybe $130/BBL would lead to "sustainable" production and demand slide?

Would that be at $1000 Gold per OZ?
Or $600?

Pemex to suspend work at its technically complex Chicontepec oilfield due to poor results, local reports said.

Pemex has spent more than $3.4 billion so far on Chicontepec, whose large reserves promised to lift Mexico's oil output from near 20-year lows, but production has lagged its targets.

And does it matter at all if the oil is not there at any price?

Or has the price not yet been reached for Chicontepec?

[Pops]

OK, here's what's gonna happen, any thread that becomes a food fight with short will be split with general arguments going here
http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-discussion/ ... 56330.html

Simple food fight stuff will be deleted.

Argue all you want on the topic at hand.

[Maddog78]

The only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

..................and how will you be calculating that?

[shortonsense]

The only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

..................and how will you be calculating that?

Someone just flew an airplane using a fuel with an EROEI < 1 !! The inhumanity!!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 81924.html

[Maddog78]

I see now I made a mistake.
ian doesn't calculate eroei, he watches that statistic.
I sure would like to see that link.