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Double or nothing?

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Double or nothing?

Unread postby lateStarter » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 15:41:00

Anyone care to venture which direction this issue will veer off into? From MSNBC/Washington Post:

After losing about $1 trillion in the markets, state and local governments are facing a devil's choice: Either slash retirement benefits or pursue high-return investments that come with high risk.

The urgent need for outsize returns by these vast public pension funds, which must hit high investment targets year after year to keep pace with rising retirement costs, is in turn fueling a renewed appetite for risk on Wall Street.

Before the crisis, many public pension funds had experimented with risky trading techniques or committed more of their money to hedge funds and other nontraditional firms, which in turn invested some of it in complex mortgage securities. When these melted down, pension funds got burned.

Now, facing an even bigger funding gap, some systems are investing in the same securities, betting that a rebound in their value will generate huge returns.

"The amount that needs to be made up is enormous," said Peter Austin, executive director of BNY Mellon Pension Services. "Frankly, they are forced to continue their allocation in these high-return asset classes because that's their only hope."


Rest of article here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33264342/ns/business-washington_post/
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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 19:50:01

lateStarter wrote:Anyone care to venture which direction this issue will veer off into?

"The amount that needs to be made up is enormous," said Peter Austin, executive director of BNY Mellon Pension Services. "Frankly, they are forced to continue their allocation in these high-return asset classes because that's their only hope."


I predict they will lose everything they have left. Government institutions by their very structure are too slow to react in a world where they compete with professional day traders.
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One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 20:46:21

I read this on MSN late last night in Philippines. One of the points made was that the major funds have been banking on 8% GPA average.

Why were they allowed to make promises based on such unreal expectations? The other interesting figure here was that across the board funds are down 32% this decade.

The world really has been living in Cloud Cuckoo land for a very long time.

The article fails to spell out the exact position of the funds; although it goes very close. The nexus is that the funds know they have to readjust their projected payouts drasticly south. They also know if they do this they will experience capital flight. So they seem to have decided to put off the inevitable and take the money to Vegas.

In Australia, pension funds are not allowed to promise set returns; all funds have disclaimers on their projections. Another way Oz has managed things better than the USA.
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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 21:22:11

There is a solution of course, it's just not one that anyone wants to hear: The correct plan is to kill all unnecessary services, fire all the government workers and privatize everything remaining.

That is a choice the Washington Post failed to mention. Moreover, it's the only thing that reasonably works.

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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 21:51:27

How would privatizing everything help?

Also the governement fundscould do atleast as well investing incommodities anderived companies.
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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 22:22:47

This is really cheery news. All of us who think we'll get a pension are going to be eating cat food, if we're lucky.

Thanks.
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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 22:36:53

All this stuff was predicted in " Rich Dad's Prophesy" except it has come about 5 yrs sooner. I am not looking forward to seeing old folks starve. I think younger, capable folks need to make a space for older folks in their plans, minds and hearts. The day will probably come when the kindness of strangers is all they have. :(
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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 11 Oct 2009, 22:44:22

hardtootell-2 wrote:All this stuff was predicted in " Rich Dad's Prophesy" except it has come about 5 yrs sooner. I am not looking forward to seeing old folks starve. I think younger, capable folks need to make a space for older folks in their plans, minds and hearts. The day will probably come when the kindness of strangers is all they have. :(


A lot of broken dreams of cruisy retirement.
Plus the kids are not expecting to have to litterally look after Ma & Pa.
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Re: Double or nothing?

Unread postby lateStarter » Mon 12 Oct 2009, 08:24:20

The cited article is chock-full of eye-opening admissions and statements. It makes me wonder if the writer of the article fully comprehends the enormity of what was written or is just stringing together a bunch of 'sensational' factoids to stir up the pot a bit.

Is the general population (for example - a police officer in Philly planning to retire in 5 years) aware of this situation? From the artcile, it seems like some attempts to address the problem by asking for employees to contribute didn't go over well. Do people just believe that if they demand everything stay the same it will?
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