[Duende]

Within the peak oil community there is a widespread concern that burgeoning populations in the developing world - particularly China and India - will prefer to adopt western lifestyles... resource-intensive lifestyles which will outstrip the earth's ability to provide those resources. In short, the thought seems to be that "the earth cannot support all humans at a developed-world level."

First, let me affirm that this is my personal belief, and the facts as I know them seem to bear this out. However, many people I have encountered lately are challenging this assumption. They hold out the chance that those in the developing world, due to their cultural differences, will not adopt our high-intensity resource lifestyles.

Do you believe those in developing countries, as they gain affluence, will settle for less-than-developed world resource consumption due to cultural differences?

[drew]

My brother taught english in Korea for quite a few years.

He said "the Koreans want exactly what we have".

It's human nature (sadly), why wouldn't they?

Drew

[Ferretlover]

Do you believe those in developing countries, as they gain affluence, will settle for less-than-developed world resource consumption due to cultural differences?

No. Why? Because no matter what country/culture one chooses, it always boils down to one thing: We are all human. We want, and, we want it NOW.
To accept less is to lose face and that is not acceptable for the masses.
We're gonna suck this planet dry; luckily, this will also prevent movement out into the universe because we won't have the resources necessary to get anywhere else.

[SeaGypsy]

Don't forget pragmatism.
Where I live in Asia, energy is priced on world parity; always has been.
This means, TV's are small old fashioned and efficeint box types. Transport is usually a 125cc motorcycle. Almost nobody uses airconditioning. Heating is unnecessary in the tropics.
People here earn on average less than 1/20 of developed countries, yet pay the same for energy. Therefore frugality is built into the way people live. What this says to me is that the Europeans have been right in taxing fuels heavily.
The illusion of cheap fuels in the USA has created a culture of entitlement to cheap fuels. As the USD$ crumbles world parity will catch up.
It is the USA who will have to adjust their consumption down massively while the develping world is mostly satisfied by incremental improvements.

[frankthetank]

Yup.. it all boils down to cost. If gasoline was $10 i sure wouldn't be out running around all the time. Every trip i made would be necessary and worthwhile. Same thing for home energy use. We just are use to paying low prices (in regards to wages) and can afford to be wasteful/clueless.

Raise prices and things will change

[lowem]

Do you believe those in developing countries, as they gain affluence, will settle for less-than-developed world resource consumption due to cultural differences?

There will always be those who go the conspicuous consumption route. There will always be differences between regions, between urban vs rural. But I get the sense that more people are getting aware that it's probably not a very good idea to blindly follow the Western ways.

[eastbay]

Do you believe those in developing countries, as they gain affluence, will settle for less-than-developed world resource consumption due to cultural differences?

There will always be those who go the conspicuous consumption route. There will always be differences between regions, between urban vs rural. But I get the sense that more people are getting aware that it's probably not a very good idea to blindly follow the Western ways.

This may be true for a small number, but I bet 99% of Asians living in Asia who do not have a car would love to have a car. And resource depletion is what it's all about. Everything else is art.

[lowem]

This may be true for a small number, but I bet 99% of Asians living in Asia who do not have a car would love to have a car. And resource depletion is what it's all about. Everything else is art.

Well I dunno about 99% but again I'd say it depends on region and whether we're talking urban or rural.

It's getting more of a hassle actually to own a car over here in Singapore - for me it's a 30-minute bus ride from work to home and a 25-minute MRT (subway/metro) ride to the downturn area - as described in detail here.

But if you're talking about the Indian farmer who's buying his first Tata Nano or the Chinese farmer buying his first Chery car, then, yeah, it's resource depletion full speed ahead at maximum warp, folks

[Duende]

Thanks for the input folks!

It seems like those in more dense areas will probably not get a car and those in rural areas will. As for other standard of living related consumption, what I'm thinking is that the 3rd world and 1st world will meet somewhere in the middle... 2nd world anyone?

[eastbay]

Well I dunno about 99% but again I'd say it depends on region and whether we're talking urban or rural. It's getting more of a hassle actually to own a car over here in Singapore - for me it's a 30-minute bus ride from work to home and a 25-minute MRT (subway/metro) ride to the downturn area - as described in detail here.
But if you're talking about the Indian farmer who's buying his first Tata Nano or the Chinese farmer buying his first Chery car, then, yeah, it's resource depletion full speed ahead at maximum warp, folks

Ok, that may be true, it might be closer to 98%, but either way it's a craving nearly everyone everywhere has.

Oh sure there are some relatively well-to-do uber-urbanites and wealthy city center dwellers ( I know a few) who prefer to avoid the cost and hassle of buying, parking, caring, and permitting a car especially in Singapore where the cost of ownership is probably as high as anywhere on earth. But the dreams and economic aspirations of the workers, farmers, and youth just about everywhere generally include future car ownership. That's why there are a billion gas burning cars out there with around 40 million added each year. It represents status, wealth, position, and is one heck of a lot easier than walking, bussing, or commuter rail in most places. That's why the 'cliff' will be sharp. And why the prices will escalate something fierce soon.

[Kristen]

Unfortunately, they are in awe of our culture of materialism. This is simply because all the folks in Marketing have done a great job portraying the United States as a modern heaven. Think about it, why on earth would companies spend so much money on advertisements? Perhaps because they are effective in controlling human behavior? The people on the top are only concerned with profit. They could care less if the normal populace faces shortages. They'll find a way to profit from that too.

[eastbay]

Unfortunately, they are in awe of our culture of materialism. This is simply because all the folks in Marketing have done a great job portraying the United States as a modern heaven.

If I may differ on a small point here, it's not 'our' or an 'American' culture of materialism. It's everyone's. Probably always was, in fact.

No one nation or people claims or may be accused of possessing a monopoly on craving, desire, greed, or an intense drive to possess more 'things'. It's a common denominator of just about all of humanity.

[lowem]

... the dreams and economic aspirations of the workers, farmers, and youth just about everywhere generally include future car ownership. That's why there are a billion gas burning cars out there with around 40 million added each year. It represents status, wealth, position, and is one heck of a lot easier than walking, bussing, or commuter rail in most places. That's why the 'cliff' will be sharp. And why the prices will escalate something fierce soon.

Alright, given the recent far-out annual car sales growth figures (China 78%, India 21%), I'll agree with you on that point.

It kinda reminds me of the population growth issue. The developed countries are slowing down while the emerging countries are going ballistic. Both in terms of human population, and car population, it seems.

[yesplease]

But if you're talking about the Indian farmer who's buying his first Tata Nano or the Chinese farmer buying his first Chery car, then, yeah, it's resource depletion full speed ahead at maximum warp, folks

I think some perspective is useful in this case. The Nano is about $2,200, so an Indian farmer, assuming their wages are at the median, which they probably aren't, buying a Nano would be equivalent to the average American buying a $60,000 auto of some sort. That's not gonna happen any time soon. A $1,000 scooter, or used car, maybe, but even then it probab ly won't be farmers buying them.

Right now, the transportation break down in China is about 25 million cars, 100+ million e-bikes/scooters, probably about the same number of gas bikes/scooters, and a half a billion bikes IIRC. At the current rate, an extra ~10 million cars/year, assuming Chinese drivers pull 12,000 miles/year, they're consuming an extra ~.2% of world oil production per year. At that rate, they'll need a a bit less than a half century to catch up with American oil consumption in autos. If anything, it's OECD consumption and OPEC restrictions that drive oil prices, and it'll likely stay that way for at least two more decades.

[eastbay]

Right now, the transportation break down in China is about 25 million cars, 100+ million e-bikes/scooters, probably about the same number of gas bikes/scooters, and a half a billion bikes IIRC. At the current rate, an extra ~10 million cars/year, assuming Chinese drivers pull 12,000 miles/year, they're consuming an extra ~.2% of world oil production per year. At that rate, they'll need a a bit less than a half century to catch up with American oil consumption in autos. If anything, it's OECD consumption and OPEC restrictions that drive oil prices, and it'll likely stay that way for at least two more decades.

At that rate? I think you're assuming China's auto sales will stagnate at 10 million/y. That is wishful thinking. Barring an immense economic catastrophe, sales will increase everywhere until the moment gasoline becomes too costly to burn in cars. China now buys more cars than the USA does. The growth in China's auto sales is larger than any other nation so expect the number of cars in China to catch up to the USA and Europe fairly soon. Like, shockingly soon. Meaning shocking gas consumption.

[Newfie]

Do you believe those in developing countries, as they gain affluence, will settle for less-than-developed world resource consumption due to cultural differences?

I believe that they will push for the highest standard of living they can attain. It will not match what we have, but it will further depletion.

[yesplease]

At that rate? I think you're assuming China's auto sales will stagnate at 10 million/y. That is wishful thinking.

Even if they stagnate at 20 million/year, it'll still be over two decades, like I mentioned, until they reach the level of gasoline consumption in the states, assuming they don't continue to increase the fleet FE figures over the current 37mpg IIRC.

Barring an immense economic catastrophe, sales will increase everywhere until the moment gasoline becomes too costly to burn in cars.

Well, if you pretend there's no such thing as price/income elasticity of demand, sure. In the real world, it doesn't work that way. Greater costs decrease demand all things being equal. You can't have more and more conventional car sales every year along w/ higher and higher oil prices every year.

China now buys more cars than the USA does. The growth in China's auto sales is larger than any other nation so expect the number of cars in China to catch up to the USA and Europe fairly soon. Like, shockingly soon. Meaning shocking gas consumption.

How soon? I doubt they'll catch up any sooner than two decades from now.

[eastbay]

We didn't think China auto sales would surpass that of the USA this soon either. China may very well pass Europe in auto sales this year by the way. Just a hop and a skip away from first place.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 03831.html

[yesplease]

The Chinese auto market has certainly exploded, but the American/Euro auto markets have a ~500-750 million car head start on them, greater wealth, and at least in America, much lower fuel economy and probably greater use. Even at 20 million cars per year, that's still a thirty year head start with what will likely be greater fuel economy standards on average, less use on average, as well as greater fuel costs. What could be a real game change IMO is a consistent ~$100+/bbl along with the drop in the price of PHEVs like the F3DM as alluded to by manufacturers like BYD. With gas prices at $4-5/gallon, a $5-6k premium for a PHEV doesn't look so bad, and if mass production lowers costs in China, I doubt a ~$25+k PHEV ala the Prius is far behind in other markets.