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Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby KevO » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 04:26:40

Is it time to give up on the peak oil theory?

At the end of the first day of the ASPO conference in Denver, we were treated to a fantastic presentation on the oil potential of the sub-salt basins on the margins of the South Atlantic Ocean given by Dr Marcio Mello who presented the evidence for a half trillion barrels of reserves in this new frontier province. So has a new Saudi Arabia been found?

Marcio Mello is president of HRT Petroleum, a Brazillian geological services company. Dr Mello's talk began with some background to the Tupi discovery in the Santos Basin, Brazil, and went on to extrapolate the geological and petroleum systems of Tupi to basins off southern Africa, the Amazon Basin, The Gulf of Mexico and The Congo Basin.

Dr Mello explained how the discovery of "diamondoid" structures in oil at shallow depth in Brazil gave evidence for mixing two types of petroleum, one that must have been formed at great depth below the Salt that blankets this basin. He had for many years tried to persuade Petrobras to drill deep, into the sub-salt strata, which of course they did eventually do leading to the discovery of Tupi.

The Tupi Field occurs in limestone reservoir at extraordinary depths of around 6000 meters beneath a salt layer that is around 2000 m thick. At such depths, temperatures would normally be too high for oil to survive but the secrets here are a combination of deep water and the conducting character of the salt which results in hot but tollerable temperatures at these great depths where the drill bit has proven intermediate grade crude oil to exist.



http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50388
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:47:13

KevO wrote:Is it time to give up on the peak oil theory?

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50388


The PO theory is about peak production of conventional oil, and by extension peak production of each of the new types of reservoir discovered since it was first theorized by Hubbert in the 1950's.

If sub-salt oil is really this common then it would increase world reserves by 500 billion barrels, which is nothing to dismiss cavalierly. On the other hand humans consume about 29 Billion Barrels every year so if nothing else changed and demand stayed steady this would be a 17 year supply of oil. That would give Humanity something of a breathing space to change our ways, but based on past performance I don't think that we will. We will just add this supply to all the others and go on with happy motoring until we can no longer afford it.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby dissident » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 08:11:42

This 500 billion barrels is the self-interested estimate of a promoter. There are not nearly enough wells to validate this claim.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby JohnnyMac » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 08:39:11

Peaking does not mean running out
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 08:55:05

And I assume this can be brought online and pumped fast enough to offset the continuing depletion of existing fields?

Oil hit $75/bbl Wednesday. I guess the market wasn't impressed by this.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby Geodesic » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 10:08:11

rangerone314 wrote:And I assume this can be brought online and pumped fast enough to offset the continuing depletion of existing fields?

Oil hit $75/bbl Wednesday. I guess the market wasn't impressed by this.


The market is more impressed with the weak dollar.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby ian807 » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 10:57:33

Sigh. No, we're still going to hit peak oil.

Yes, there are lots of new finds. Do they matter? Not much.

The stuff we're getting out of Saudi is "light sweet crude" from a single nice, well-behaved field, easy to siphon, cheap to process and export.

The exciting new fields so breathlessly reported by journalists lacking either petroleum engineering or geology degrees are mostly in deep water, in many smaller scattered fields at different depths and with different geologies. The oils there are not "light sweet crude" but heavier hydrocarbons (think "tar") that are much more expensive to extract and process.

We will hit two peaks. The first is price. It's more expensive to get this new stuff out. It's more expensive to process it. When oil is $500 a barrel, we start leaving it in the ground.

The second peak is energy return (called EROEI). When you have to spend a barrel of oil's worth of energy to get a barrel of oil, it's game over for oil as a significant energy source.

That second is the one to watch. When oil was first discovered and into the 60s, its EROEI was over 100 worldwide. Now it's just about 8, and decreasing. When it gets to 1, we're done.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby Pops » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 11:31:46

ASPO figured in a number called "yet-to-be-discovered", which translates to oil yet to be discovered and attached a number that I can't remember.

What will be the real surprise is when we get the big discovery of easy, sweet crude.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 11:56:08

KevO wrote:Is it time to give up on the peak oil theory?



Peak Oil isn't based on the total amount of oil in the ground. Peak Oil is based on the maximum production rate.

The deepwater sub-salt reservoirs are difficult and expensive to develop. Its unlikely they will disprove the peak oil theory, or even be developed quickly enough to create another peak in global oil production as high as those already seen in 2005 (peak annual production) or 2008 (Peak monthly production).
:mrgreen:
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 12:10:51

We can't even transfer from liquid fuels to NatGas.

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. natural-gas storage projects face delays as companies struggle to raise financing, the Gas Storage Operators’ Group said.

per Leanan PONews

And once past peak you have to find even more to
make up for depletions. Like Cantarell going to 150 000 BPD
next year.

A loss of 2 MMBD in 4 years.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby NoWorries » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 13:45:09

re: We can't transfer from liquid fuel to NatGas

What do you mean by this, exactly?

I raised the point a few days ago that this massive NatGas finding didn't mean we were "saved", because you can't fill your tank with NatGas. Shortonsense told me that NatGas can easily be changed into liquid fuel.

Since I know practically nothing about Natural Gas, I was hoping someone could explain this better.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 14:15:27

Lets just say its true and that it exists... I guess you have to look at how long it takes to get any meaningful production out of it and the price of that production... i bet it won't be cheap.

If it is true, Brazil has one heck of a payload sitting off shore! 500billionx$77...not too shabby!
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby NoWorries » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 14:29:00

Agreed. This find basically makes Brazil the next Saudi.

I'm surprised there isn't more coverage of this.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby Pops » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 14:35:27

NoWorries wrote:Since I know practically nothing about Natural Gas, I was hoping someone could explain this better.

A simple conversion allows a generator for example to run off nat gas, propane or gasoline interchangeably.
http://www.propane-generators.com/

The main problem with retrofitting vehicles is storage, compressed nat gas has 25% of the umph per unit volume of diesel - but hey!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed_natural_gas
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby Pops » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 15:09:51

Sorry, I forgot:

We're dead.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 15:11:26

If anyone has been following the Brazil thread they should not be surprised at this. This from page 12 of the thread.

--> Financial Times <--

Brazil oilfield may house ‘100bn barrels’
By Jonathan Wheatley in Sao Paulo
Published: November 7 2008 23:55

Brazil’s newly discovered “pre-salt” oilfields may contain more than 100bn barrels, Haroldo Lima, head of the industry regulatory, said on Friday.

Mr Lima said just the pre-salt oilfields already under concession may contain between 50bn and 80bn barrels and that the total area could surpass 100bn barrels.

If so, the new fields would propel Brazil up the world league table of oil producing nations. Brazil currently has reserves of about 12.6bn barrels (or 14.4bn barrels of oil equivalent if natural gas is included), according to a statistical review produced by BP of the UK, a standard industry reference.

That compares with 79.4bn barrels of oil in Russia, for example, or 101.5bn in Kuwait, according to BP.

“Dimensions are so big that we still don’t have a good vision of what this means for Brazil,” Mr Lima told reporters in Rio de Janeiro.

[...]

Every well so far sunk into the pre-salt fields has struck oil – a hit rate of 100 per cent compared with about 15 per cent common in new areas in Brazil. Ministers have likened selling concessions in pre-salt fields to selling winning lottery tickets and the government is preparing a new regulatory framework for the pre-salt fields.

But 10 concessions in the Santos Basin had been sold before the government realised the potential of the new fields.

The areas under concession form a minority of the total pre-salt area, suggesting Mr Lima’s estimate may be very conservative.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby mididoctors » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 09:40:36

the 500bn figure is an estimation for OOIP for the entire south atlantic basin
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Re: Peak Oil? Half a trillion barrels found

Unread postby NoWorries » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 11:47:57

Thank you to pstarr (and the other poster who replied) for the brief explainer. I knew it had to be "too good to be true", the way it was being portrayed in the media releases. As the old adage goes: "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."

Here is what Investopedia has to say about this latest "miracle":

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-an ... G1009.aspx
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