Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby KevO » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 04:34:34

There is a breaking news story on the BBC this morning that China is about to release an electric car that will hold 5 people and do 250 miles, that's miles, all on a single charge.
It can be fully charged, get this, from any household plug socket in 7 to 8 hours but if you use a specially developed fast charging point with a lead the diameter of a fire hose it will fill up the car in just one hour and you can get half a charge in only 10 minutes.

They've certainly been busy out east and if it is indeed all true then the implications of this are MASSIVE. It would obviously ruin the petrol driven car industry and leave the US trailing so far behind it could collapse the dollar once and for all. But on the up side Obama's wishes for his people to wake up may become realised and we may see a NASA type effort to beat the Chinese to gain world domination in electric car sales.

This of course will kill 'peak oil'. There have been many new discoveries of Oil fields lately but the decline from existing ones has still outweighed that but not by that much. This car and what will surely be the subsequent race by the rest of the world to catch up will mean that there will indeed be enough Oil to get us through.
It could also mean huge, huge emission cuts and therefore saving us from climate disaster and vegetarian sandals just in the nick of time, although that does entirely depend on how we generate the electricity needed. James Lovelock will undoubtedly say that only nuclear could do the job and this is probably the case. Renewables such as wind and solar would never be able to power enough generation for electric transportation.

But this all means, that apart from China becoming the world's main superpower within years, our reliance on Oil will lessen and we would no loner need to deal with the Middle East. This would inevitably mean the fall of Saudi Arabia which of course would cause strife bit hopefully only in the short term and as long as none of these countries acquire nukes then it will stay in the short term and not the forever term. Ii is time to get away from relying for our very lives from that part of the world and become truly self sufficient as a nation.
And if nothing else, it will be an end to noisy roads.
http://kevinollier.blogspot.com/
Last edited by KevO on Wed 21 Oct 2009, 05:45:30, edited 2 times in total.
KevO
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: CT USA

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby cipi604 » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 04:54:14

Hold your horses buddy, I don't know how many can afford this gizmo ~ £30,000/$50000
User avatar
cipi604
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 818
Joined: Tue 14 Aug 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Montreal Canada

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby KevO » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 05:02:33

cipi604 wrote:Hold your horses buddy, I don't know how many can afford this gizmo ~ £30,000/$50000


LCD 46 inch TV's were £2000 three years ago, they are now £500. WE all kn ow how economics work. These cars will cost no more and probably a lot less than petrol cars in a very, very short time
KevO
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: CT USA

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby Arthur75 » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 05:08:19

KevO wrote:
LCD 46 inch TV's were £2000 three years ago, they are now £500. WE all kn ow how economics work. These cars will cost no more and probably a lot less than petrol cars in a very, very short time


lol
User avatar
Arthur75
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 529
Joined: Sun 29 Mar 2009, 05:10:51
Location: Paris, France

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Olle » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 06:32:28

This is hardly news. If it can be recharged at home in 8 hours, then the battery can hold no more than 16 kWh. That is not much and it will not be sufficient for more than 100-150 km in a modern and SAFE car.
Sorry to be so negative, but please understand simple math here, a household plug can give approx 2000 Watts. Multiply that by 8 and you get 16000 Wh, a.k.a. 16 kWh.

:cry:
Me Tar sands, you Jane
User avatar
Olle
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 97
Joined: Wed 28 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Sweden

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby KevO » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 06:36:31

Olle wrote:This is hardly news. If it can be recharged at home in 8 hours, then the battery can hold no more than 16 kWh. That is not much and it will not be sufficient for more than 100-150 km in a modern and SAFE car.
Sorry to be so negative, but please understand simple math here, a household plug can give approx 2000 Watts. Multiply that by 8 and you get 16000 Wh, a.k.a. 16 kWh.

:cry:


I'm with yas, but that's what they're saying at the BBC.
And the BBC is GOD
see
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8315947.stm
KevO
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue 24 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: CT USA

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 06:48:12

How much can the current ramp up to with beefed up connections to the mains? Think about it; your oven and stove and refrigerator and hot water system can all run at the same time. With 3 phase standard power what can the amps rate? Questions others here are more qualified than I to answer.

Either this is a Ponzi conspiracy of monumental proportions or it's a "BUY BUY BUY" I dug a little and found this excellent article introding the company with a focus on it's founder;


"Wang Chuan-Fu started BYD (the letters are the initials of the company's Chinese name) in 1995 in Shenzhen, China. A chemist and government researcher, Wang raised some $300,000 from relatives, rented about 2,000 square meters of space, and set out to manufacture rechargeable batteries to compete with imports from Sony and Sanyo. By about 2000, BYD had become one of the world's largest manufacturers of cellphone batteries. The company went on to design and manufacture mobile-phone handsets and parts for Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500), Nokia (NOK), Sony Ericsson, and Samsung."

Perhaps the noise in April deafened us?

"But Buffett, who is 78, was intrigued by Munger's description of the entrepreneur behind BYD, a man named Wang Chuan-Fu, whom he had met through a mutual friend. "This guy," Munger tells Fortune, "is a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch - something like Edison in solving technical problems, and something like Welch in getting done what he needs to do. I have never seen anything like it."


Coming from Munger, that meant a lot. Munger, the 85-year-old vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, is a curmudgeon who frowns on most investment ideas. "When I call Charlie with an idea," Buffett tells me, "and he says, 'That is really a dumb idea,' that means we should put 100% of our net worth into it. If he says, 'That is the dumbest thing I've ever heard,' then you should put 50% of your net worth into it. Only if he says, 'I'm going to have you committed,' does it mean he really doesn't like the idea."

This time Buffett asked another trusted partner, David Sokol, chairman of a Berkshire-owned utility company called MidAmerican Energy, to travel to China and take a closer look at BYD."


http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/13/technol ... c.fortune/
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Olle » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 06:55:27

KevO wrote:I'm with yas, but that's what they're saying at the BBC.
And the BBC is GOD
see
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8315947.stm


and it is filed under Science....
Isn't it a journalists job to come up with tough questions on everything they report...?

:?
Me Tar sands, you Jane
User avatar
Olle
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 97
Joined: Wed 28 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Sweden

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 07:20:20

Before I commented I read about 10 articles on the company; BYD. The big deal is not in the electric car per se but on application of a new battery system. The detail on dynamics and growth of this company are very impressive; some very serious heads have already grabbed a chunk.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby kjmclark » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 07:25:54

KevO wrote:
cipi604 wrote:Hold your horses buddy, I don't know how many can afford this gizmo ~ £30,000/$50000
LCD 46 inch TV's were £2000 three years ago, they are now £500. WE all kn ow how economics work. These cars will cost no more and probably a lot less than petrol cars in a very, very short time

WOW - so the Chinese have figured out how to use photolithography to make cars! That is impressive! 8O

Come on KevO. Surely you can see that cars are not circuit boards? :roll:

[edit to replace the hard to understand sarcasm - is that better?]
Last edited by kjmclark on Wed 21 Oct 2009, 22:56:18, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
kjmclark
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 428
Joined: Fri 09 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 07:30:28

kjmclark wrote:
KevO wrote:
cipi604 wrote:Hold your horses buddy, I don't know how many can afford this gizmo ~ £30,000/$50000
LCD 46 inch TV's were £2000 three years ago, they are now £500. WE all kn ow how economics work. These cars will cost no more and probably a lot less than petrol cars in a very, very short time

WOW - so the Chinese have figured out how to use photolithography to make cars! That is impressive! 8O

Come on KevO. personal attack deleted :roll:



Don't be the class smartarse; say something .
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 07:47:35

Olle wrote:This is hardly news. If it can be recharged at home in 8 hours, then the battery can hold no more than 16 kWh. That is not much and it will not be sufficient for more than 100-150 km in a modern and SAFE car.
Sorry to be so negative, but please understand simple math here, a household plug can give approx 2000 Watts. Multiply that by 8 and you get 16000 Wh, a.k.a. 16 kWh.
:cry:
BYD claims the battery pack is 48 kWh, not 16 kWh.

the E6 is a full sized people carrier and carries a large 48kw/hr battery pack giving a range of 400 km (249 mile), the curb weight comes in on the heavy side at 2020 kg (4453 lb)
BYD target US launch for electric cars in 2011

Sounds like a better deal than the Tesla Model S. The Model S base model is anticipated to have 160mi(260km) range from a 42 kWh battery pack at a price of $57,400. At $50,000 price tag and 48kWh battery pack, the e6 is over 30% cheaper on a per kWh basis.

[The Model S] is being designed as an alternative to cars such as the BMW 5 Series and the Audi A6, with an anticipated base price of US$57,400 (or US$49,900 after the federal tax rebate). If you consider the lower cost of electricity vs. gasoline, as well as the lack of routine oil changes and other maintenance, Tesla says the cost of the Model S is similar to internal combustion engine vehicles with a sticker price of roughly $35,000. Tesla is planning on having three options for battery packs, allowing customers to select from 160 mi (260 km), 230 mi (370 km) or 300 mi (480 km) per charge before it must be recharged using a conventional 120 volt, 240 volt or some 480 volt outlets.
Model_S
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 5023
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 08:23:13

Gosh! How many swift kicks to the groin can the peak oil theory withstand?
Carlhole
 

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby misterno » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 09:17:43

The inventions or super efficient cars mean nothing unless they cost close to what we pay now.

For gods sakes you can even manufacture a car working on solar power but what good is that if it costs $1MM?

New technology does not mean it is affordable, it is just NEW maybe more efficient but necessarily affordable by masses.

Move on....
User avatar
misterno
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 843
Joined: Wed 07 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Somewhere super boring

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 09:20:34

misterno wrote:The inventions or super efficient cars mean nothing unless they cost close to what we pay now.
For gods sakes you can even manufacture a car working on solar power but what good is that if it costs $1MM?
New technology does not mean it is affordable, it is just NEW maybe more efficient but necessarily affordable by masses. Move on....
Well, obviously, price declines with mass production as we've always seen throughout industrial history. This is something the Chinese in particular are going to be very good at.

(wow...)
Carlhole
 

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 09:29:44

SeaGypsy wrote:How much can the current ramp up to with beefed up connections to the mains? Think about it; your oven and stove and refrigerator and hot water system can all run at the same time. With 3 phase standard power what can the amps rate? Questions others here are more qualified than I to answer.
/


I agree with SG on this one and I will add this:

What if we could put some whiz bang EV into every consumers driveway tomorrow? Unless there is an order of magnitude improvement in efficiency, the grid would crash, and possibly burn. It is old and overburdened now. If grid loading does not become a problem then I predict that some elemental material will become supply constrained (dare I say peaked?) and shut down the affordability of the enterprise.
Of course, benevolent aliens may be leaking just the right amount of technology to us to keep humanity from choking on our own shite. :roll:
User avatar
hardtootell-2
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 443
Joined: Sat 23 May 2009, 18:38:02
Location: 12th dimension

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 09:31:25

It's a good incremental step but KevO's hysterical sensationalism (sarcasm or no) is misplaced.

Batteries do not follow Moore's law the way consumer electronics and computers do. Something like EESTOR is required to push electric cars over the top.
mos6507
 

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 09:35:30


"As oil revenues were going down, City revenues were going to take their place, but then all of a sudden City revenues have disappeared," said John Curtice, politics professor at Strathclyde University.

"It's part of the backdrop to the financial crisis -- we have to find other sources of revenue."


Meanwhile, all available financing is going to keeping up
appearances at the Insolvent Banking System.

That has to stop, all debt has to be cleared, before we can even
begin. And individual cars are a non starter in that new system.

Trains or nothing.
mcgowanjm
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2455
Joined: Fri 23 May 2008, 03:00:00

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Jotapay » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 09:58:23

mos6507 wrote:It's a good incremental step but KevO's hysterical sensationalism (sarcasm or no) is misplaced.

Batteries do not follow Moore's law the way consumer electronics and computers do.


Exactly. I am extremely skeptical of this article's claims. It is probably a scam by the Chinese to get investors' money. Battery technology has not advanced to the point where a viable car can drive more than ~60 miles on a single charge. 250 miles is an extraordinary claim. The available power per unit of battery weight in rechargeable batteries has always been the Achilles' heel of electric vehicles. With current technology, batteries just weigh too much to get the required power needed to drive 100+ miles from one charge. This is total vaporware to me.
Jotapay
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3394
Joined: Sat 21 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: China trumps the world. Bye bye to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 21 Oct 2009, 10:09:19

Jotapay wrote:
mos6507 wrote:It's a good incremental step but KevO's hysterical sensationalism (sarcasm or no) is misplaced.

Batteries do not follow Moore's law the way consumer electronics and computers do.


Exactly. I am extremely skeptical of this article's claims. It is probably a scam by the Chinese to get investors' money. Battery technology has not advanced to the point where a viable car can drive more than ~60 miles on a single charge. 250 miles is an extraordinary claim. The available power per unit of battery weight in rechargeable batteries has always been the Achilles' heel of electric vehicles. With current technology, batteries just weigh too much to get the required power needed to drive 100+ miles from one charge. This is total vaporware to me.


????

It already exists. Kublikhan posted the link a few posts back:
Gizmag
Carlhole
 

Next

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests