[Dr. Ofellati]

Did this get posted on PO.com and I missed it? If so, Mods please kill this post.

http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-oi ... ws-2009-11


I have been proposing for a couple of years (along with Memmel), that the KSA is falling off a cliff. The best evidence supporting that hypothesis, I think, is that the KSA didn't increase production during the great run up to 150.

I wonder how this plays in?

[copious.abundance]

I have been proposing for a couple of years (along with Memmel), that the KSA is falling off a cliff. The best evidence supporting that hypothesis, I think, is that the KSA didn't increase production during the great run up to 150.

Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd



Try again Schmuto. BTW you owe Maddog some money.

[copious.abundance]

God. Your map shows them stuck. Are you struck?

Did it possibly occur to you there was no demand for any additional oil from them? No, obviously such a thing has not occurred to you.

BTW, if you're wondering where all this Saudi oil is going instead of the US, might want to read this out today (Asia).

Also, concerning that oft-predicted Saudi production cliff, you and Schmuto will have to wait yet more.

>>> LINK <<<

Saudi crude-oil production has risen to 8.15 million barrels a day after dropping to 7.86 million in February, the lowest level since 2002.

[Maddog78]

Try again Schmuto. BTW you owe Maddog some money.

You didn't have to change your screen name just because you lost a bet.
It wasn't even a money bet, just internet points.

[TheAntiDoomer]

LOL, schmuto's new profile pic totally gives him away too.

[Dr. Ofellati]

Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

Oh tut-tut! Shame on you.

Any fool, including me, can see that production already was 9.5 million when the run up began in 06, or even earlier. They actually produced less for the first part of the run and then only got back to prior levels at the height of the run.

Stop needing it so much OF.

[Dr. Ofellati]

I think I've got it, with tip of hat to anon poster at Platts website.

It's really quite simple. The KSA isn't producing as much light sweet stuff anymore, regardless of total exports, and, given that the percentage of heavy, sour crude is going up, and, further given that the United States refiners don't make as much money on that stuff, total imports have fallen.

Not only makes sense, it reinforces the position that the KSA has peaked and can't produce more CL even if it wanted to.

[copious.abundance]

Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

Oh tut-tut! Shame on you.

Any fool, including me, can see that production already was 9.5 million when the run up began in 06, or even earlier. They actually produced less for the first part of the run and then only got back to prior levels at the height of the run.

Stop needing it so much OF.

The price run-up stalled in mid-2006 to early-2007 . . . which, not so coincidentally, is about the same time period Saudi oil production stalled. Then when the price started going back up in early 2007, Saudi production soon followed suit.


LINK



Amazing - even the Saudis respond to price signals!

[Dr. Ofellati]

The price run-up stalled in mid-2006 to early-2007 . . . which, not so coincidentally, is about the same time period Saudi oil production stalled. Then when the price started going back up in early 2007, Saudi production soon followed suit.

You're reaching. Lengthily.

The price curve shows a steady ramp up from 06 to peak in July 08.

The production curve shows a large dip that extends through much of the price rally and only returns to previous norms toward the end of the price rally.

Who are people going to believe? OF or their lying eyes?

[Maddog78]

Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

Oh tut-tut! Shame on you.

Any fool, including me, can see that production already was 9.5 million when the run up began in 06, or even earlier. They actually produced less for the first part of the run and then only got back to prior levels at the height of the run.

Stop needing it so much OF.

That wasn't our bet.
Need me to bump up that thread, since you seem to have forgotten all about your prediction?

[TheAntiDoomer]

Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

Oh tut-tut! Shame on you.

Any fool, including me, can see that production already was 9.5 million when the run up began in 06, or even earlier. They actually produced less for the first part of the run and then only got back to prior levels at the height of the run.

Stop needing it so much OF.

That wasn't our bet.
Need me to bump up that thread, since you seem to have forgotten all about your prediction?

I wouldn't expect Dr. Ofellaxitive to pay you Maddog.

[Maddog78]

I guess not.
Anybody who has to change their user name to avoid the humiliation of a really bad prediction isn't going to acknowledge losing a bet.

More confirmation from the front page;

Specifically, the near-record stockpiles of oil that currently exist not only in the United States, but across the developed world, have been made possible by the fact that OPEC has been increasing output at the fastest pace in two years. Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that the cartel has boosted production more than a million barrels a day since March -- despite the worst global recession since World War II. OPEC's largest producer, the Saudis, have helped lead the way, increasing exports four out of the past six months. Saudi output has increased almost 300,000 barrels per day since earlier this year. Overall OPEC production reached its highest level in 10 months in October.

[Velociryx]

Maddog...please stop living in denial. Face facts. We are all going to die, and soon. OPEC outputs are declining, not increasing. You're not actually going to BELIEVE these guys, are you?

The dieoff began day before yesterday. OF COURSE the newspapers aren't mentioning it. Do you think they want to spark a panic??

But soon...any day now, really...it will be impossible to hide the smell coming from the body dumps, and then the world shall know the truth!

Again.

Or...something.

Yeah.

-=Vel=-

Remember: If it has ANYTHING to do with finding more oil, demand dropping, outputs increasing, or alternate energy technologies, it's either a lie or a big oil smoke screen.

If it conveniently fits in with existing mythology, or can be "modified" slightly to fit, then it's obviously the truth.

C'mon...get with the program, you!

[JustaGirl]

But soon...any day now, really...it will be impossible to hide the smell coming from the body dumps, and then the world shall know the truth!

Well, guess there will be plenty to eat then. I better start stocking up on the A1 right now.

[mcgowanjm]

Maddog...please stop living in denial. Face facts. We are all going to die, and soon. OPEC outputs are declining, not increasing. You're not actually going to BELIEVE these guys, are you?

The dieoff began day before yesterday. OF COURSE the newspapers aren't mentioning it. Do you think they want to spark a panic??

But soon...any day now, really...it will be impossible to hide the smell coming from the body dumps, and then the world shall know the truth!

Again.

Or...something.

Yeah.

-=Vel=-

Remember: If it has ANYTHING to do with finding more oil, demand dropping, outputs increasing, or alternate energy technologies, it's either a lie or a big oil smoke screen.

If it conveniently fits in with existing mythology, or can be "modified" slightly to fit, then it's obviously the truth.

C'mon...get with the program, you!

Except for 'demand dropping', the easiet way to find new oil.


And demand will drop, always at least one step before
declining supply.

[Velociryx]

Well, guess there will be plenty to eat then. I better start stocking up on the A1 right now.

Heh...I'm comin' to your house for dinner! Meat on da menu, yaaaahoooooooo!!!!

Except for 'demand dropping', the easiet way to find new oil.


And demand will drop, always at least one step before
declining supply.

There are prolly a million different reasons for why demand might drop, but not here.

Ohhhhh no.

Here, the ONLY POSSIBLE REASON that demand might drop is that supply is about to fall off a cliff and begin an irrevocable decline, or to put another way:

PEAKOILISHEREPREPAREFORTHEDIEOFFTHEWORLDISCOMINGTOANENDRIGHTNOWDIEDIEDIEEVERYTHINGSGOINGTODIE!!!!!!
(say that five times fast and win a prize!)

Again.



-=Vel=-
(I am with, and fully endorse the program now...this Uber-Doomer Peak Oil stuff is fun!)