[Graeme]

The World Energy Outlook report on energy supplies, peak oil and climate change

This chart (from the WEO-2008 report) shows that "oil from fields currently producing" is projected to enter a steep decline in production. That decline in production is the definition of peak oil, namely the point after which oil production cannot be increased. But the chart shows an increase in total production. The production shortfall is projected to be made up for by production increases coming from "oil fields yet to be developed", "oil fields YET TO BE FOUND", "natural gas liquefaction", and "unconventional oil" (aka tarsands). While the WEO figures project this new production will occur, it requires large scale investments in new infrastructure to produce this fuel, and it requires FINDING new oil fields. The low rate of oil field discovery existing since the early 1960's does not raise much hope for significant major new oil fields to be found.

examiner

[sciencegirl]

How accurate is that chart. I thought that natural gas was also in decline. Am I wrong ?

[TheAntiDoomer]

How accurate is that chart. I thought that natural gas was also in decline. Am I wrong ?

Oh goodness gracious, way wrong:



I recommend this thread to start catching up and read a lot of Maddog post.

http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-reports/us- ... 53995.html

[Maddog78]

How accurate is that chart. I thought that natural gas was also in decline. Am I wrong ?

[dorlomin]

How accurate is that chart. I thought that natural gas was also in decline. Am I wrong ?

Yes, even conventional natural gas will not go into decline for a few years yet. Unconventional sources like coal bed methane, tight gas, shale gas and so on are proving to be credible sources of energy. More expensive than what we have been used to but its there all the same. Also alot of offshore stranded gas may become exploitable over the coming years as new rig\ ships that can liquify onboard are being built.

The down side though is we dont really have a good idea of when the net energy available to our civilisation will peak, depending on the rate of decline of oil, even the new gas sources may not hold that off for long (only a couple of years perhaps).

Others, however, will disagree loudly.