[Dreamtwister]

There are a number of "Top 20" threads stickied around here, but there's one missing. I first put this list together back in 2005, but it's since been forgotten. It also has not been updated since around 2006, so maybe we could pick it up again.

I don't remember the criteria for placement on this list, so let's start there. What would be the best metric? Estimated total reserves? OOIP? Ultimately recoverable?

There are currently 6 categories:

1. PRODUCTION INCREASING:

Production at this field is actually increasing. Exact criteria for this classification are undetermined at this time, because I do not know of any fields who actually might qualify.

2. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE:

This field may currently fall into category 1, but does not because of external influences. Scheduled projects that have yet to come online, supply disruptions, work stoppages, equipment malfunction or political instability are among the things that may be limiting production. Fields that are partially or fully shut-in due to price considerations would also qualify.

3. Level Production:

Production only fluctuates marginally. There are no projects to expand production scheduled to come online for at least 2 years, and there are no outward signs of systemic falling production.

4. Suspected Decline:

There are reasons to suspect that this field are in decline. Advanced field age and employment of tertiary recovery methods are good subjective indicators, but not sole indicators. If these methods are combined with classified production figures, rig spamming* or other panic measures, decline may be suspected.

5. CONFIRMED DECLINE:

The field in question is in irreversable decline. No measures currently available can ever return this field to it's previous production levels.

6. Unknown:

No data is available for the field in question.

*Rig spamming is the process of thowing up many rigs and injectors in an effort to maintain production numbers.

I need help refining the definitions above. And now for the list as it stood in 2006 when it was last visited:

1. Ghawar(Total) S. Arabia Suspected Decline
2. Greater.Burgan Kuwait CONFIRMED DECLINE ~14%
3. Bolivar Coastal Venezuela Level Production
4. Rumaila North & South Iraq Unknown
5. Safaniya S. Arabia Unknown
6. Kirkuk Iraq CONFIRMED DECLINE
7. Samotlor C.I.S. CONFIRMED DECLINE ~ 9%
8. Zakum UAE-Abu Dhabi ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE
9. East Baghdad Iraq Unknown
10. Manifa S. Arabia Shut in ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE
11. Gachsaran Iran Unknown
12. Abqaiq S. Arabia Level Production
13. Ahwaz Iran CONFIRMED DECLINE ~19%
14. Romashinko C.I.S. CONFIRMED DECLINE
15. Cantarell Complexx Mexico CONFIRMED DECLINE ~14%
16. Marun Iran CONFIRMED DECLINE
17. Zuluf S. Arabia Unknown
18. Berri S. Arabia CONFIRMED DECLINE
19. Agha Jari Iran CONFIRMED DECLINE
20. Daqing China CONFIRMED DECLINE ~7%

[dorlomin]

7. Samotlor C.I.S. CONFIRMED DECLINE ~ 9%

Samotlor went into decline a while ago (late 80s?), is this 9% since last year or cumulative?


E2A Great thread idea.

[vtsnowedin]

Someone with access to the numbers could put together a spreadsheet showing total production and percentage of world supply for these fields in 2006 up through today which would verify or deny decline rates. Perhaps the Iraq war has changed the order of things quite a bit in the last three years. Ummm. Lots to think about.

[Dreamtwister]

Samotlor went into decline a while ago (late 80s?), is this 9% since last year or cumulative?

As I said, this was 3.5 years ago. But if memory serves me correctly, the 9% was annual decline.

Edit: Yes, those percentages are annual rates of decline. I know a lot of people dropped proverbial bricks when they saw Cantarell!

Someone with access to the numbers could put together a spreadsheet showing total production and percentage of world supply for these fields in 2006 up through today which would verify or deny decline rates. Perhaps the Iraq war has changed the order of things quite a bit in the last three years. Ummm. Lots to think about.

That's a really neat idea. (In his best Batman voice) To the spreadsheets!