[Carlhole]

Yahoo Finance

In yesterday's issue of Small Cap Investor Daily, 'Renewable Energy Revitalization', I explored opportunities in companies that will build the smart grid infrastructure in the U.S. You know that this grid will be critical to the success of renewable energy infrastructure, since it will allow energy to efficiently and effectively get from the point of generation to the end user.

Today I'm going to tell you about the opportunity in small-cap companies that produce power – and specifically one Chinese wind turbine manufacturer that has seen its stock soar 182% already this year. I know that there is a huge opportunity here for investors who want to establish a position in a company that is growing market share in this exciting industry.

In fact, I've recently put together a special report on three companies that will benefit from a renewed focus on alternative energy including wind, solar, and landfill methane. You can read my Special Report: Alternative Energy Investing: 3 Top Stocks Set for Profits when you sign up for a no risk trial to SmallCapInvestor PRO.

Renewable energy infrastructure is coming back into the spotlight 2010 for a few important reasons:

1) Job creation that the economy desperately needs

2) Reduction of pollution required to combat global warming

3) Need for independent, home grown sources of energy

All of these will require a range of energy producing solutions. Tomorrow I'll write about job creation – today it's all about wind power.

If you believe, like I do, that boom times for clean energy are around the corner, you must be looking for the companies that are likely to benefit financially. One of my favorites is A-Power Energy Generation Systems (NasdaqGS:APWR - News), a Chinese wind turbine manufacturer that just announced plans to build a manufacturing facility here in the U.S. to supply turbines to North American projects. This foreign investment on domestic soil is an indication that activity in the wind sector is heating up. Not only will A-Power be creating new jobs here in the U.S., but the company also just announced that it will be supplying as many as 240 wind turbines for a new $1.5 billion wind farm to be built in Texas...

This is the low-float, highly volatile stock I've owned since 2008. Loaded up a bunch of it at around $4. I think it could be a $100 stock in a year or two.

[Carlhole]

Earnings out Dec.3.

Tsunamai of Revenues Headed to APWR

In the coming months, (APWR) will cross into mega billion contracts where the 320 million run rate of 2009 will be eclipsed like never before during 2010 and 2011.

Lets review what is about to happen that is causing this strong stock move and incredible volume before the NEWS breaks::

1. West Texas Wind Farm partnering with USREG and CIELO in USA for 1.5 billion Wind farm where APWR will supply the wind turbines .

2. Macau Island 2.5 billion contract. This DPG monster contract will come in two parts and the first is a 1.5 billion LNG plant on Macau Island. Following this win, a 1.0 billion Nat Gas 2400 MW plant will be built to fuel growth and power on Macau Island.

3. The variable out there in near term is the Thailand 600MW Biomass plant. This could be another 400 million in DPG revenues.

4. The main variable is how much wind power revenues APWR will book inside China and all the bids for Africa, Pakistan, and Vietnam. What we do know , the possibilities are for billions and billions of new revenues into 2010 and 2011 and beyond.

the profit margins are for 8% on wind and around 11% on DPG model contracts

BOTTOM LINE::: (APWR) is a screaming bargain at $16 given the potential mega BILLION contracts coming into the future. Earnings are Dec 3rd and this might be the turning point where APWR delivers the quarter but more importantly UPGRADE GUIDANCE into 2010.

Author is LONG (APWR) and will continue to hold throughout 2011

[threadbear]

So this company is listed on the Nasdaq, Carlhole?

[Carlhole]

So this company is listed on the Nasdaq, Carlhole?

Yup. APWR.

The Yahoo Finance message board is where you get all the good articles and insights - along with typical message board crap.

APWR has a 60% stake in the Shenyang Power Alliance, a partnership between the local Chinese government and private industry. The SPG has a vision for distributed power networks for China and all over the world.

China has no choice but to build an smart energy grid. It already has a relationship with GE. This little engineering company is going places and doing things.

Couple of monster contracts ready to fall. Earnings out 12/3.

It's always been volatile as hell with lots of short interest. But I think it could really run.

We've had a few double digit up days this week. Possibility for $25 next week (most optimistic). But eventually it will pull back. Buy it on a pullback and then don't look at it because it will make you tear your hair out.

[threadbear]

I just might do it, though I'm not in investing mode.

[Carlhole]

I just might do it, though I'm not in investing mode.

I was a stockbroker with Merrill Lynch for 5 years. I wasn't especially good at the sales part though. I should have been a securities analyst or something.

But the research reports, sector and stock analyses -- they were all top notch from Merrill's investments advisory side. Even so, the products Merrill underwrote and pushed us to sell some often pretty questionable, mysterious or outright weird derivative securities (this was from '91 on).

I'm just throwing out a good stock pick in case someone wants to have some fun with some of their money - this stock is a good one to read about at least. It's racy, competitive and hardly ever gets boring. And it's in the energy field which is usually interesting to people around here.

It could easily go up a little more, but it will pullback with profit-taking sometime soon.

[Carlhole]

China's Green Stimulus: A-Power, First Solar May Get Big Chunk

Speaking of the $454B green stimulus package, it is even larger than China's first $680B package because it is targeting the green energy sector only. The green stimulus will be used in a similar way to how the government injected the first stimulus money into their economy. Companies with government support will get a big chunk (over 20% of the first stimulus went to State-owned companies reportedly). In the wind energy sector, Goldwind technology is a major player in China, the company is listed in the Shanghai stock exchange, with a revenue of RMB6.5B in 2008, and expected to reach RMB10B in 2009. The newcomer in China's wind energy market is Shengyang's A- Power Energy Generation (APWR); the company has grown exponentially in recent years with support from local government. The company is targeting over 2GW capacity in 2010 to meet Chinese market demand. The company is also expanding overseas, in places such as North America and South America, Africa, the Mid-East and South East Asia. We would expect the two companies to get wind farm contracts of over $50B in the coming years.

APWR's core business is Distributed Power Generation; the company has expanded aggressively into wind power; it recently bought Japanese solar manufacturer, Evatech.

A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (A-Power) is a renewable energy company in China, engaged in providing onsite distributed power generation systems and micro power grids for industrial companies. It is also engaged in the production of wind turbines. The Company is engaged in designing, constructing, installing and testing distributed power generation and micro power grids as stand-alone facilities and for various customers in the steel, chemical, ethanol, cement, and food industries.

[Carlhole]

Motley Fool: An In-Depth Look at A-Power

You may have noticed that A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq: APWR) has been on an absolute tear lately, with shares up 70% over the past month. Last week's Dubai dip was no match for this momentum. I've been remiss in covering developments at this company, and it's high time I got up to speed on the story. Let's see what all the fuss is about.

[Carlhole]

3 cent earnings miss. Market said "no big deal" and rallied.

There had already been a decline prior to the earnings announcement. Looks like this is all the sell-off there will be.

[SeaGypsy]

Got nada to invest, but keep up the good work Carl.

[Carlhole]

Got nada to invest, but keep up the good work Carl.

I see this stock as a kind of barometer of the level of DOOM that is actually believable.

The lower the stock goes, the more correct are the Doomsters. The higher the stock goes... well, that's how wrong they are. APWR has always had plenty of short interest and has been a victim of naked shorting too. So, if you are doomer, you can always make money by shorting this thing.

I own shares. I think this little company stands a chance of becoming a kind of GE of China. That's why I say, "huge opportunity", because in time, you'll get stock splits and more growth, more stock splits and more growth...

[Jotapay]

I was a stockbroker with Merrill Lynch for 5 years.

Series 7 license?

[Carlhole]

I was a stockbroker with Merrill Lynch for 5 years.

Series 7 license?

Oh yeah...and Series 3 and Insurance licenses. All long expired now.

[Carlhole]

"Bullish engulfment candle confirmed"

Don't know WTF that exactly means anymore, but it sure [sounds good, don't it? That was a pretty good day considering it was after earnings report and a sudden drop off in the broad market. It was up nearly 9% today until the broad market sell-off. Closed up 4%.

Anyway, if you follow this stock, you'll see that it is pretty damn interesting and relevant to any energy discussion. It's almost like watching a video game once you got some bet money riding. That Motley Fool article about APWR pretty much hit the nail on the head.

See ya at $150.

[Carlhole]

Sure is a ton of people shorting APWR.

I can only figure they spot a company which is going to get over-bought periodically, and they think they can cash in on this exuberance. I read comments from people who think this is going to crash down to $11 again. But the stock is worth almost $40 just on a reasonable p/e ratio x wall street earnings estimates for 2010. This is a company that is signing contracts and MOUs all the time.

...Or the shorts must think that the global economy is going to double-dip. In that case, APWR would suffer a helluvalot.

In any case, piling on a popular stock and pushing it down will work only for a while, and then it will quit working - when the float gets larger and heavier to move.

I don't think there WILL be another global financial crash. I think the crash of 2008 was very related to the financial catacysm involved in final joining of Chinese and American economies They are joined at the hip now. Everyone wants it that way. America's military role in the middle of energy heartlands is part of this vast globalization project and power shift. The whole humongous world economic revolution is being transacted in dollars.

Looks like there is enough reasonably priced crude left in the ground for it, as long as it isn't wasted. But industry and governments are starting to count heavily on renewable energy development. Hopefully the NIF or CERN offer more glimpses about the possibility of fusion energy, but in the meantime... wind, biomass, geothermal, solar, conventional oil, tidal energy... APWR is in the cat-bird seat for all those must-do joint projects. And it's going to have lots of willing financial help from both the US and the Chinese governments.

[Carlhole]

APWR and Shenyang Power and USREG Meet With Obama Group in Beijing

...deputy secretary in general of Shenyang municipal government Mr. Gu Shaoqing, A-Power’s chairman & CEO Mr. Lu Jinxiang and others participants met with Mr. Ron Kirk, trade representative at President Obama’s China delegation. As the US trade representative and member of Obama’s cabinet, he works as the major trade consultant for the president and takes on the roles of trade coordinator and speaker for US.

On this meeting, deputy mayor of Shenyang Mr. Yang Yazhou firstly introduced to Ron Kirk about situations of Shenyang Power Group, expressing his assent on the JV cooperation between US Renewable and SPG to co-develop the 600 MW wind farms in West Texas. Mayor Yang also pointed out that Shenyang municipal government would grant its full support and assistance both in policy and economically for SPG entering into US market. As the first equipments-manufacturing enterprise in Shenyang entering into US, SPG should become a famous brand name representing Shenyang. Yang warmly invited Ron Kirk to visit Shenyang at his convenience.

Representative Ron Kirk expressed a welcome attitude towards China investing in US especially in the field of green energy. In the past five years, China has become the country whose direct investment in US grew the fastest, with US anticipating more resources inputs from China into new projects in US.

As being the former mayor of City of Dallas and long-time resident in Texas, Representative Ron Kirk feels excited about the project located in West Texas. President Obama also holds an affirmative attitude towards Sino-US cooperation in the field of green energy and other energy sectors.

[Carlhole]

APWR recommendation by Raymond James Chief Analyst. Hold for 3 - 4 years!

People are comparing the emergence of A-Power Energy Generation Systems with First Solar which went from $20 to $300 in a relatively short time.

China has NO CHOICE but to urgently support the adoption of green energy and high efficiency in conventional energy installations - both specialties of APWR. The Chinese government (Shenyang Power Alliance) has gotten behind APWR in a fairly big way. A-Power also just formalized an agreement to supply wind turbines to a Texas wind farm which will be the largest so far in America.

Of course, there is no guarantee, but APWR is looking more and more attractive. The biggest risk is execution. It's great that APWR is signing so many huge contracts in countries all over the world. But fund managers and other big investors want to see completed factory complexes, actual production and delivery of turbines, DPG installations and other proofs. With the government firmly behind the company, this risk is mitigated somewhat, especially since China will be devoting an additional $450 billion stimulus for green energy development.

Unfortunately, if you wait until production and delivery takes place, APWR's share price will have already risen. You can never eliminate risk in the stock market.

This is a great buy and hold stock. Throw some money at it every month for the next 4-5 years. You'll probably do pretty dang well. It's volatile as hell, though; sure won't be without significant ups and downs.

[Carlhole]

Reuters

COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Demand for new wind power could far outstrip supply under a new global climate deal, the founder of Asia's largest wind turbine maker said this week, calling for new manufacturers to help industry to fill orders. Tulsi Tanti, also chairman of India's Suzlon Energy, said due to the size of the 36.5 billion euro ($53.5 billion) wind turbine market, he does not consider existing manufacturers as competition.

"The market is so large. With a deal agreed here it will grow even bigger, so there's a lot of room for the new players," Tanti said on the sidelines of U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen. "The industry hopes to grow more aggressively. The 10 (leading manufacturers) are not able to satisfy these targets, so we need more players."

However non-binding the agreement, China and the US seemed to both love whatever happened in Copenhagen.

[hardtootell-2]

I made $ on this stock on Friday using an options spread to exploit an imbalance in the volatility between front and back month options. Thanks!

[Carlhole]

I made $ on this stock on Friday using an options spread to exploit an imbalance in the volatility between front and back month options. Thanks!

The volatility has always been great in this stock. Lots of options traders.



APWR made into the IBD 100 list of the best break out stocks within the last two weeks. I like that "Analysts expect choppy quarters to end, strong growth to begin".