[cipi604]

Looks like we have a steeper decline. Any thoughts?

[MD]

...

Looks like we have a steeper decline. Any thoughts?

yeah...three points don't make a trend. The longer trend looks more like 68 or 69 mbd by 2012

[MD]

The categories are screwed up too. It's stupid to be mixing tar sands in with crude and condensate. The production profiles, costs, and product streams are all different.

The repeated failure to maintain "apples to apples" analysis of energy markets continues to amaze me. It's no wonder there's so much confusion.

[MD]

And whoever made that chart fluffed the projected data points to give the line a little wiggle maybe thinking that this implies more precision?

Any student of mine that brings me a graph like that will get it booted right back with an "F".

Edit: Forgive my cynicism..of course those little dips in March and August of 2010 are completely predictable. I'm sure there is a detailed field by field analysis to back up the data.

[cipi604]

lol about who made that graph... it's about Ace from TOD

If we have such a trend in an business-as-usual scenario, where is this trend going in the real-world scenario? With no investments and delaying all the projects, we could see another one even more abrupt in the years to come.

[Armageddon]

At what point do exporting countries like Mexico quit exporting because of their domestic need ? This will take a lot of extra oil off the markets.

[gollum]

By looking at the data (assuming peak oil is fiction, which I don't) it is obvious that there is no economic recovery

[MD]

By looking at the data (assuming peak oil is fiction, which I don't) it is obvious that there is no economic recovery

Yes there is/will be, and you can be part of it. Own the energy sector if you can; and if you can't, work in it; and if you can't work directly in it, stay in a closely related business.

That and minimize your own personal energy needs through careful planning.

Do those things and you'll remain among the employed and reasonably prosperous.

[Armageddon]

When the real depression sets in, demand is going to plummet.

[MD]

When the real depression sets in, demand is going to plummet.

Neh...the machine's gotta eat, and it will.

[MD]

... it's about Ace from TOD...

Apologies to ACE for being blunt, but it's a crappy chart, and I'd be ashamed to post it.

[cipi604]

He has more than one
In my eyes it's an optimist chart. When demand plummets again, no investments are done because there is no interest for investors, and no money left for that... so that chart is going to be updated down... down... down.

[copious.abundance]

I'm gonna bookmark this thread.

[dsula]

At what point do exporting countries like Mexico quit exporting because of their domestic need ? This will take a lot of extra oil off the markets.

That of course will never happen simply because mexico and all the other oil exporting countries cannot afford not to export. As price of oil rises the incentive to export becomes even bigger. As price of oil rises domestic consumption of exporting countries will fall leaving more for export. Countries which subsidise oil will go broke quickly, needing even more foreign currency.

[mcgowanjm]

At what point do exporting countries like Mexico quit exporting because of their domestic need ? This will take a lot of extra oil off the markets.

That of course will never happen simply because mexico and all the other oil exporting countries cannot afford not to export. As price of oil rises the incentive to export becomes even bigger. As price of oil rises domestic consumption of exporting countries will fall leaving more for export. Countries which subsidise oil will go broke quickly, needing even more foreign currency.

Then Mexico collapses next year. I read an article where Chinese (Int'l) manufacturing was moving to Mexico because it was now cheaper
than China because of proximity to US.

Mexico must stop oil exports to the US next year or the recent
'peace' with the drug cartels and Mexican gov't will end, the 'war' will resume and the spiral will proceed with positive feedback
and go non linear.
and conflate.

[mcgowanjm]

Looks like we have a steeper decline. Any thoughts?

Yes. That 'steady' decline will be impossible. It will go non
linear. Fat Tails after Asymptote always do.

[copious.abundance]

ace's graph is already lookin' a bit shaky! It only took 2 months!



And for you all-liquids fans:

Source

[Armageddon]

We've peaked. No denying it.

[shortonsense]

We've peaked. No denying it.

But...but...but....you are RIGHT!!!! Except.....where is my terminal decline?! Doesn't the geology of the world understand that TERMINAL doesn't mean going back UP!

The inhumanity!!

[Armageddon]

We've peaked. No denying it.

But...but...but....you are RIGHT!!!! Except.....where is my terminal decline?! Doesn't the geology of the world understand that TERMINAL doesn't mean going back UP!

The inhumanity!!

The plateau at the peak will expierence a little up and down action before the final decline.