by efarmer » Sun 29 Nov 2009, 12:21:50
A great article and thank you for the link!
You have to believe that every form of trend analysis, curve
fitting, and predictive analysis has been run continuously inside
investment and exploration science circles for decades. They
all have their merit and they were used until they didn't give
private results that met expectations or needs before they
were offered publicly, coupled with inflated potential yields,
as sucker bait to exploit a proven track record for folks who
understand a dead end when they see it.
When the big safari hunter becomes a high priced guide
who sells his secret methods and custom built rifles, you
can pretty much figure all the game is gone.
But what the hell, since posing as a great investor went
snake, perhaps I should tell everyone I am becoming
a stochastic math, oil wildcatter, after all, with each of these
scams that burst, my chances of winning big just get
better. This is the real beauty of the math, unless of course,
the exponential trend line has played out and somebody is
blowing smoke up my dress.
To hell with sliding down the exponential hill, find a spike and
sit on it until you become a winner. (Let someone sit down on
it first, and then you sit on their lap, it is much more comfy.)