[Bedoor]

Agriculture is not done! Growing population, no new farmland, production per acre down, food for fuel, etc.  There’s so much more than the “people have to eat” argument.  This article explains it all in a bit more detail. You don’t want to miss out on ag the coming ag boom.

[no link baiting allowed]

[Ludi]

There's plenty of land already under cultivation or abandoned after bad practices. It would be more appropriate to restore what we've ruined rather than destroy more ecosystems to grow food that doesn't get to the starving people anyway. People on the planet are not starving from a shortage of food, or a failure of agriculture, but because of unfair distribution.

See the work of Amartya Sen.

Appropriate food-growing practices would enable many areas of the world to reduce their agricultural lands and restore them to wild nature. Putting more land under the plow is not an answer to any of the problems we currently face.

More information: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Index.aspx

[patience]

I'm not sure what the title of the article means, unless it is the obvious "farming has a future", which I don't think anyone is questioning. Many things in the article do, however, point at Peak Food. Wheat yields (they danced all around the statitics) have simply levelled off--not much more to be gained there without some quantum leap of technology. The article carefully makes no mention of how de[endent ag is on commercial fertilizers and chemicals and petroleum fuels, all of which are threatened by Peak Oil.

At present, farmers are pressed hard to make ends meet where I live. (Indiana) Dairy is near dead, beef is just marching in place, not turning a profit, and grain is a gamble, mostly dependent on speculation-driven prices. Nobody here buying new equipment, and in fact, most can't afford to repair what they have. (I run a farm repair shop.) A large local cheese plant went under a few years ago, due to a govt program of dairy buyouts to "boost the price of milk". The result was that cheese is now supplied by more foreign sources, like New Zealand, where i'm told there might be more cows than people..... Of the 200+ dairy farmers in my county a couple decades ago, 8 remain.

No doubt in my mind that ag has a big future, but I think it will look a lot different in 10-20 years. The off-shoring of manufacturing from the US has been paralleled by the off-shoring of dairy, and to a great degree, beef farming. I think those will return to the US in a much more localized form, but not to be the world suppliers of yore. I'm sure that India and other grossly overpopulated areas will cultivate everything up to their doorsteps, and still have starvation, because they can't afford to import grain that is going up in price. Import tariffs will continue to play a role in the game, with Asia and Europe trying to retain their own agriculture bases, which is why burgers cost so much in Japan.

It is a very complex situation, not suited to simple answers for any given country. But, yes, people will still need to eat, no matter what, so ag HAS a future. What it will look like is yet to be determined.

Ludi's point is well taken, that much of present ag practices are non-sustainable and destructive. Better alternatives exist, which if not put to use, will make it very hard for the future.