[Questionmark]

This is my prediction for the manner in which peak oil will unfold in the U.S. and the rest of NA.

2010 - Mexican oil production declines to the point at which it can no longer export any. Being one of the United States top 3 suppliers, prices begin to climb rapidly, regardless of the economic climate or state of demand.

2011 - The annual Mexican budget is severely reduced due to it's lowered oil sales and tourism. Mexican drug lords gain in strength and full blown war breaks out.

2012 - Economic collapse occurs and we see Mexican refugees flooding border states. Whatever remains of the government is locked in a war with the drug lords, which it has little chance of winning.

While the years may not end up being all that accurate I do believe the major turning point in NA will be when Mexico production falls below a level at which it can export, and I fully expect that to happen before 2011. At that point, peak oil will hit the U.S. pretty hard, no matter what the demand is.

Given the current state of war in Mexico and the governments reliance on oil for it's budget, we can also expect the government and economy to eventually collapse. This will undoubtedly send swarms of people north into the united states. Which will create a whole new set of problems for the American government and may result in some serious human rights violations being committed.

[Fishman]

The Mexican outlook is pretty grim. They only export three things to any significant extent, oil, people, drugs. Cantarell is plummeting, jobs are scarce north ot the border, so that only leaves drugs.

"some serious human rights violations being committed" would pretty much define Mexico right now. Might take a lot more "
some serious human rights violations being committed" before they get their drug war under control, assuming they can.

As for the US, does a fence constitute "some serious human rights violations being committed"?

[oddone]

Mexico needs to export all oil above 1.5M bpd - that's their (max)refining capacity. The present prodction is 3M bpd.

They might soon not have the money to buy back refined oil - leading to a quite severe shortage in Mexico - that will be the tipping point for a "failed state"...

[Questionmark]

The Mexican outlook is pretty grim. They only export three things to any significant extent, oil, people, drugs. Cantarell is plummeting, jobs are scarce north ot the border, so that only leaves drugs.

"some serious human rights violations being committed" would pretty much define Mexico right now. Might take a lot more "
some serious human rights violations being committed" before they get their drug war under control, assuming they can.

As for the US, does a fence constitute "some serious human rights violations being committed"?

I was thinking more along the lines of the mistreatment of refugees by the U.S., given our xenophobia. It's going to be impossible to stop them from coming. The real question is how do we deal with them once they arrive.

[mos6507]

I was thinking more along the lines of the mistreatment of refugees by the U.S., given our xenophobia.

What treatment do they deserve? Would you like to welcome illegals into your kitchen to raid your fridge?

It's not our job to be lifeboat for a world in population overshoot and facing energy descent.

[gnm]

I was thinking more along the lines of the mistreatment of refugees by the U.S., given our xenophobia. It's going to be impossible to stop them from coming. The real question is how do we deal with them once they arrive.

What Xenophobia? More like here have a drivers license, some social security, and health care... Impossible to stop them coming? Maybe but in the current economic situation there has already been limited reversal of fortunes with some families in Mexico actually sending money to relatives here and a good number going back south. Mexico, unfortunately for its citizens, is already a failed state. Our politicians in the US seem to be trying real hard to duplicate the example.

A better question would be what help could we possibly offer when we are collapsing our selves.

-G

[Questionmark]

I'm not passing judgement on anybodies belief system, only stating the obvious and giving my prediction. Which is that Mexicans will inevitably flood the border states & California and that they will not be welcomed by Americans. We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice, what do you expect to happen as their numbers increase? Especially during tough economic times.

[mos6507]

they will not be welcomed by Americans.

Why should they be welcomed?

[Questionmark]

they will not be welcomed by Americans.

Why should they be welcomed?

Again, I'm not taking a position on the matter. I'm just stating my prediction. Whether or not they should be welcomed isn't the topic here. The question is how will Americans and our government react to a flood of refugees?

[Dreamtwister]

they will not be welcomed by Americans.

Why should they be welcomed?

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
And I shall grind them to dust upon my floor!"

[Tanada]

I'm not passing judgement on anybodies belief system, only stating the obvious and giving my prediction. Which is that Mexicans will inevitably flood the border states & California and that they will not be welcomed by Americans. We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice, what do you expect to happen as their numbers increase? Especially during tough economic times.

You have a Citation for this claim of target practice vs illegals in the border area? Should make interesting reading if it exists as I am sure the authorities would throw them in gaol and lose the key.

[Questionmark]

I'm not passing judgement on anybodies belief system, only stating the obvious and giving my prediction. Which is that Mexicans will inevitably flood the border states & California and that they will not be welcomed by Americans. We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice, what do you expect to happen as their numbers increase? Especially during tough economic times.

You have a Citation for this claim of target practice vs illegals in the border area? Should make interesting reading if it exists as I am sure the authorities would throw them in gaol and lose the key.

In most of the reported incidents the perpetrators have been the authorities themselves. It's difficult to find news about this sort of thing but the articles you can dig up all involve border patrol agents. Although I have read a few stories over the years where people like the minutemen have pretended to be officials and then assaulted Mexicans that they caught crossing the border.

Most of these incidences will go unreported for a wide range of reasons but to deny that this sort of thing goes on at all is simply naive.

[Ludi]

Most of these incidences will go unreported for a wide range of reasons but to deny that this sort of thing goes on at all is simply naive.

But you can't give us a citation.

Or won't.

[Questionmark]

Most of these incidences will go unreported for a wide range of reasons but to deny that this sort of thing goes on at all is simply naive.

But you can't give us a citation.

Or won't.

You need me to teach you how to use google?

[Questionmark]

From 2006, but exactly what you're asking for.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=5168712

Tensions between the United States and Mexico remain high after the shooting death of an illegal immigrant at the border last month.

This isn't something that gets reported often and most of the incidents that occur are never even discovered. Low population density in the region and a massive desert means that it'd be pretty easy to dispose of a body and never be found out.

[Pretorian]

Well what did you want? You are coming to other men's land with no purposes other than stealing their economic opportunities, sleeping with their women and excreting your personal waste in their water. If you come through a desert--- you'd better expect some action.

[Ludi]

From 2006, but exactly what you're asking for.

No, it isn't. The individual was shot by an agent.


"U.S. officials say a rock-throwing incident sparked the confrontation that lead to the Dec. 30 shooting death of 20-year-old Guillermo Martinez Rodriguez. San Diego police investigating the shooting say Martinez was part of a group of migrants trying to scale a border fence.

Investigators say when the Border Patrol tried to intervene, Martinez threw a rock, nearly missing an agent's head. The agent then fired his gun. Border Patrol officials allege Martinez was a smuggler with a history of past arrests."

We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice,

I was not able to find a citation about "hillbillies" shooting border crossers, which is why I asked YOU for a citation.

[mos6507]

Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free

That's the theme song for the age of exuberance, before we sucked the oil out of the ground and depleted our soils. Times have changed. The sooner we realize it, the better.

[mos6507]

Most of these incidences will go unreported for a wide range of reasons but to deny that this sort of thing goes on at all is simply naive.

Um, yeah. If a tree falls in the forest and nobody's there, does it make a sound?

[Questionmark]

From 2006, but exactly what you're asking for.

No, it isn't. The individual was shot by an agent.


"U.S. officials say a rock-throwing incident sparked the confrontation that lead to the Dec. 30 shooting death of 20-year-old Guillermo Martinez Rodriguez. San Diego police investigating the shooting say Martinez was part of a group of migrants trying to scale a border fence.

Investigators say when the Border Patrol tried to intervene, Martinez threw a rock, nearly missing an agent's head. The agent then fired his gun. Border Patrol officials allege Martinez was a smuggler with a history of past arrests."

We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice,

I was not able to find a citation about "hillbillies" shooting border crossers, which is why I asked YOU for a citation.

Americans commit violent hate crimes against Mexicans all across the country. Do you really believe the people living on the border have any more love for them than they do in the rest of the lower 48?