[phaster]

with all the doom and gloom on main street and the run up in stock market index starting in march of this year, just wondering what "local" signs of "doom" and/or "boom" is everyone seeing in their own neighborhood?

personally on the local "doom" side there happens to be a church across the street from where I live and this past year I've seen the monthly line for the food bank get longer and longer, I'd say the line is grown to at least 200 people the first saturday of the month, and I'm seeing a few more unfortunate homeless people in my alley going thru the recycled bins.

on the local "boom" side about a block over a smaller home than what I live in was was listed on www.redfin.com for the low asking price of $919,000 and about a month ago a new "artsy-fartsy" boutique wine bar & bistro opened in the hood...

[Plantagenet]

a block over a smaller home than what I live in was was listed on http://www.redfin.com for the low asking price of $919,000 and about a month ago a new "artsy-fartsy" boutique wine bar & bistro opened in the hood...

How big is your million dollar home? Do you have like 12 bedrooms and 9 bathrooms or something?

[phaster]

a block over a smaller home than what I live in was was listed on http://www.redfin.com for the low asking price of $919,000 and about a month ago a new "artsy-fartsy" boutique wine bar & bistro opened in the hood...

How big is your million dollar home? Do you have like 12 bedrooms and 9 bathrooms or something?

I live in an older 1920's home about 2300 sq ft of living area that has either has 4 bedrooms and a study or 5 bedrooms depending how ya look at things, and the house for sale is a smaller three bedroom.

as they say in real estate location, location, location, and that's one of the reasons the price might seem high.

its all relative of course, there are no 12 bedroom / 9 bathroom McMansions anywhere in the area because its an older neighborhood, but in San Diego where I happen to live its not unheard of to have whole ghettos of multi-million dollar homes.

When I was just a kid in high school and a student at university, which does not seem all that long ago I use to fly over old farm fields here in SoCal which over the past 20 years turned into huge track home developments, and of course there were also "gated" McMansion communities.

Alot of those new developments I somehow always knew were being bid up in price to "unsustainable" economic and environmental prices. SoCal is one of the subprime central areas, but in the local neighborhood that would mean older home would get fixed up and because of the proximity to the downtown core, artsy-fartsy stuff tended to open in lue of chain restaurants.

BTW one other "doom" sign I'm seeing in the local neighborhood, is fewer older homes are being bought and given the Wolf Range, Sub-zero Freezer & Ice Maker, Wine Chiller, Titanium Bar Sink with granite countertops makeover. Or perhaps this is just a sign that people have regained a sense of fiscal restraint.

[jlw61]

Obviously city hall is cutting back on expenditures. I see more burned out traffic lights that take longer to repair. Potholes are popping up occassionally and, unless it's a busy street, they sit there for some time with perhaps gravel being dumped into them now and then. It seems the only departments with a decent budget is law enforcement and corrections.

The number of store/restaraunt closings have slowed down but the crumbling of the local economy definately contiues. I can only imagine what will happen after Chrismas if it's a dissapointment.

Lawns that are usually pristeen are now "normal looking" in that the the owners are obviously trying to keep their yards instead of hiring someone to do it. I haven't seen a yard crew on my street since mid-summer.

Scooters are EVERYWHERE! The younger crowd seem to be ditching the car and going to scooters. More motorcycles are appearing for the post-20-something crowd. Bicycles are making a comeback in a big way.

[gollum]

Local Walmart just layed off all of their Christmas help, unemployment has gone from around 3.5% a year ago to 7.5% (roughly) now. Anecdotally lots of houses for sale and prices going down.

[hope_full]

I hear there's a recession going on, but from the looks of things in Hampton Roads, Virginia, it's well hidden - especially here at Christmas time.

I just returned from Harry and David's (hoity-toity food/gift store) and the lines at the two cash registers at 11:00 am were five and six deep. This is the store where you pay $29.95 for a box of eight luscious pears. True story.

Article in the local paper said housing prices are steady and home sales have been going along swell.

The contractor I wanted to hire to do a home repair is so busy he can't come by for two weeks and everywhere I see signs of people spending money like they're running a printing press in the basement. It's really a puzzle.

[ian807]

It all sort of depends on where you go and how much schooling you have.

The recession isn't spread evenly. If you don't have a college education, or didn't finish high school, U6 unemployment is probably over 20%, at least around here. That's a guesstimate. I didn't do a count. Just listening to that segment of people I know talk about their lives.

If you are a tech guy, or an executive, have a college degree in something that isn't useless as my psychology degree, unemployment is actually still quite low. The IT guy who left a few months ago had a new job in weeks. Most of the people I know with technical skills or advanced degrees aren't having much trouble.

Location matters too. In most of Houston, where I live, U3 unemployment is 7.4% so the real measure (U6) is about 15%, but you can't tell much. Lines are long. Restaurants are full. The residential real estate market is starting to pick up.

In the little town where I grew up in rural Pennsylvania, unemployment is 15.5% using U3 measure, so the real unemployment rate is probably about twice that (i.e. 30%). So, about 1 out of 3 people there are unemployed. The one large business that was there is leaving, outsourcing production somewhere else.

Our local doom signs are big empty condos started before the boom. They are running as low as 10% occupancy in some of the newer ones. It's a sure bet that the developers will be going bankrupt soon.

Boom signs? Well, it never really unboomed here. It's Houston, you know? We're in 'da oil bidness' down here. The last serious recession happened in the 80s. Everything since then has been just a bump. I was laid off from my test automation software job at Schlumberger in one such bump in 1997, but I have to admit that the effect was minor.

[SFDukie]

In my neighborhood (inner sunset, San Francisco) I'm not seeing much of either. A couple of restaurants that I think have been on a long decline have finally closed.
Real estate is stable-in town inventory for sale is slightly down. Rental market seems to have a slightly higher vacancy rate c/w 3 years ago, say.
Less tourists at the GGB. Hotels are more full than a year ago, but revenue per room is down at high end places

[jake21]

I'm in England and work in recruitment. We have had a very good year, Christmas bonuses all round, however, there is a severe downward pressure on wages for the average guy or girl doing the average job. We are paying people around 75p ($1.50) per hour less now than we were 2 years ago. These are semi skilled people who work hard. If the semi skilled wont do the work for less money the unskilled are hired to do a less competent job.

This has happened because those at the board level will sacrifice everything else before their own reputation or salaries. Reporting a bigger profit than the year before is still the most important thing that drives the economy. It's called growth I believe.

I know 3 (out of 12) employees in serious debt even though they earn quite well. I would bet money on the number of employees in serious debt being double that but some people don't feel comfortable telling their employer they are in the sh*t. I may be wrong about that though. By serious debt I mean they owe at least 1.5 times their salary on unsecured loans.

2 people cried today, both were with relief. One because a bonus gave them a temporary respite from the wolf at the door and another because a smallish bonus actually made a difference to their christmas. That didn't happen last year.

I even know some rich people who are feeling the pinch, one rexecutive left a restaurant without paying for the meal to which he invited everyone! Maybe he's just a scoundrel lol.

I used to believe that there would be a sudden crash, I now think I will be posting a similar report this time next year. Matters will be worse, but still growth will be the driver of the economy.

NB: I have been aware of peak oil since 2003 and have registered here under various names mostly due to technical difficulties and a poor memory.

[Rod_Cloutier]

The local real estate boom wound down, so did municipal tax revenues.

The city has made up for that by hiring dozens of parking patrol agents, installing photo enforced radar and red light cameras everywhere, and a half dozen other new 'tricks' so creating a zero tolerance policy on all traffic offences, thus raising additional money from fines.

So far its been working. The've put all of the increase into capital projects like road and sewer repairs that create jobs, enforcement of a zero tolerance (neo-nazi like) traffic code that has created enforcement and prosecution jobs.

Lots of money still being spent- but you don't want to drive here! (everyone drives everywhere here because of the harsh climate). Death, taxes and traffic fines, no escaping them.

[Pfish]

I travel every weekend for my job: last weekend I was in Seattle, the weekend before in Dallas and Cherry Hill, NJ before that. Every restaurant I visit is packed. Waiting lines an hour long on the weekends. My biz went down just 3% this year...just did the math this morning.....

[hope_full]

By serious debt I mean they owe at least 1.5 times their salary on unsecured loans.

That's some *serious* debt. I'd need a padded cell if I had that kind of debt. I own 1x my annual income on my house and that's enough to give me pause.

How on earth do you *ever* get back on top if you owe so much on high-interest unsecured debt?

[leaflight]

Here in Oklahoma , it's seems virtually unaffected by whats going on in IT silicone valley and service sector job markers like California , Michigan cars, New York, Florida.

Mostly here oil/gas coal, cattle , farms, small factories and firms also I live way out in the sticks near a small town and thier putting in a new subdivision, perhaps expecting babyboomer retires moving here because property taxes house prices and land prices here are many times lower, than the east or west coast etc.

Example 5 acres and house , around 1k+ a year property taxes

Also a 3bed house on 20 acres near high employment and near 4 lakes area 120K+ to purchase property

I have a brother in Northern Ga who lives in the hills on 9 acres and its 6k+ a year property taxes.

I heard a story of a retiree who moved to wisconsin on a few acres and was paying 13k year property taxes.

New Jersey Mcmansion avg subdivision house 8K plus a year property taxes.

I'm amazed that in some places you have to make a least minium wage from your pay just to pay property taxes and they call that home ownership.

Having to come up with 400 to 700+ dollars a month to pay property taxes on a house I would not call that a ownership, I call that oweinship.

Oh on foreclosures and bankrupticies 40/60 on avg monthly in the United States , 135,000.Thats a small city or large town going down every month of people places and things in the united states as a whole.

2010 we should see the effects of whats going down and been going down (the doom ) behind the scenes, come to surface more in the mainstream media.

us debt clock org shows stats on foreclosures and bankruptcies happening every minute.

Also bankruptcies were reported to be up 100% since 2007, by some other independent studies.

[patience]

Official UE in my Indiana county is 11.2%, so the U6 is probably 19-20%. U6 doesn't even cover it, because there are so many that have been without work for so long, and so many underemployed/cash workers, etc. Actual is probably nearer to 25%.

My small business does repairs for farm equipment, lawn and garden---welding and machining. Our receipts for the 2009 are down about 60% over 2008. Virtually none of the "hobby" type work we did previously. Even if people have a job, they don't spend a cent they don't have to. Luckily for us, ours is a retirement business that only supplements our income. We have no debt, and the business is also debt free and well supplied.

Other small business people I talk to are in trouble for cash flow. Most of them have operated on credit which is now hard to get. Many have closed. All the marginal ones are gone, and I expect several more to close this winter.

I get auction flyers from machine shops and factories being sold out by their creditors, usually about 2 a week now. It used to be just machine shops, but now it is mostly factories closing. Most of the auction attendees are junk dealers, and some farmers looking to pick up shop equipment for 10 cents on the dollar. The commercial real estate usually does not sell.

One local bank was bought out last year (National City), and bankrate.com says there are two more with problems. The housing crash has killed the local hardwood industry that used to supply lumber and mfd. products for cabinets, flooring, and furniture. One local mfr. of office furniture sold out last summer, the large plant being bought by a community group that hoped to rent it as warehouse space, but no takers for far. In a town of about 5,000, we have lost a cheese plant, one that made wood tool handles, a children's furniture plant, a wood skid maker, and several sawmills. A Chrysler dealership lost its' franchise, and a GM dealership lost half of its' brands.

Farming has been the anchor business here forever, but a drought a couple years ago and a very wet season this year, along with low prices for beef and milk has hurt them badly. The town's only farm equipment dealership went broke, so farmers have to drive at least 60 miles for parts now.

The auto industry has been the major labor employer for a long time here, but with GM bankrupt, that has failed miserably. Some years back, Ford spun off 13 plants, IIRC, to frm Visteon Corp., a parts supplier. Two years ago, an employee told me that 11 of those plants were closed, and the local one was expected to close soon. It did, and the plant is now rented as office space.

North of us about 40 miles is Bedford, IN, the limestone capitol of the midwest US. I don't know if ANY of the quarries and stone mills are running there now--I think not.

Would the last one leaving Indiana please turn out the lights?

[hillsidedigger]

the last couple of days I have seen signs of a resurgent boom around here but I think it is the groundwork for hyper-inflation.

[beamofthewave]

Here in Dallas, Oregon I am now allowed to have chickens because the city is changing their ordinances so that everyone is allowed to have five chickens. About time!
The gas station in town put up bars on their windows because they had been broken into three times. The bicycle shop has left town this past November because they could not make it because of the downturn.

[eastbay]

My favorite little retail motorcycle shop recently closed because fewer are buying motorcycles. I'm kinda out in the sticks, but even the local cell phone store we use is closing 31DEC.

On the other hand, a pair of fast food chicken outlets recently opened sorta nearby and they appear quite busy.

[timmac]

There has been some smaller older casinos here in Vegas that have shut down their hotel towers because of lack of business, this is just one of the examples below that happened yesterday [12-15], plus many other cutbacks at all casinos as well, they are now fearing a large layoff after the new year here from all casinos.

The Sahara hotel-casino in Las Vegas is temporarily closing two of its three hotel towers and its buffet, citing slow business during the holiday season.

Verena King, a spokeswoman for the company with Preferred Public Relations, couldn't immediately say Tuesday how many rooms at the 1,720-room property would be affected; or how many jobs would be affected.

"If the demand did increase, then more rooms would be made available (at the closed towers)," King said.

She said the closures are effective immediately and it's not known when, after the holidays, the towers will re-open.

The closures come as many industry analysts feel demand for Las Vegas hotel rooms will not grow enough in 2010 to fill all the new and existing hotel rooms in the U.S. gaming capital.

[timmac]

Also here in Nevada we just got over a 4 percent state budget cut last Year [6-08], now this was just announced yesterday [12-09] that they are looking for up to 10 percent more cuts and this time it will come with state employee layoffs

Nevada gov tells cabinet to plan for bigger cuts

CARSON CITY, Nev. — Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons told agency heads to prepare plans for possible budget cuts of up to 10 percent to meet an ever increasing revenue shortfall.

Budgets outlining cuts of 6 percent, 8 percent and 10 percent are to be submitted by Jan. 5, according to a memo from Budget Director Andrew Clinger.

"The governor is being very prudent," Gibbons spokesman Daniel Burns said Tuesday. "He wants the state of Nevada to be prepared for any eventuality."

The bigger reduction scenarios came two weeks after Gibbons asked for proposals on how to reduce spending by 1.4 percent and 3 percent.

For the first three months of the two-year budget cycle that began July 1, state revenues are down about $53 million from projections on which the $6.8 billion general fund spending plan was based.

"That's just for the first quarter," Burns said. "There's eight quarters in the biennium."

Under reduction targets estimated by the Budget Office, a 10 percent cut would amount to $436.5 million through June 30, 2011.

Burns said the administration also sent out an e-mail to all state employees, seeking suggestions on how to save money.

At a news conference last week, Gibbons said all options for reducing the budget were on the table, including possible layoffs, extended furloughs and shortened workweeks.

The latest budget cut plans come as the governor considers whether a special legislative session is needed to deal with the state's fiscal problems. He has ordered new revenue projections by early January from the Economic Forum, an independent panel whose projections under state law must be used to set the state budget.

Nevada, heavily dependent on gambling and sales taxes, has been hard hit by the recession as gamblers and tourists keep a tighter grip on discretionary spending. Nevada's unemployment rate of 13 percent is second-highest in the nation.

Some lawmakers have said plans for a special session are premature, and questioned whether spending reductions could best be made by the administration and through an interim legislative process.

If a special session is called, Gibbons would set the lawmakers' agenda

[Thralen]

Well currently Colorado itself is not so bad for UE figures, not comparatively at least. However, my personal experience for 2009 is that online holiday sales (I'm an artisan that sells my pieces online and in person) are down about 48% over last year. I may still get a few before Christmas that pull that number down some but most of my holiday sales are normally ordered by this point. I anticipate that even if I do get a few more, my sales will still be down at least 40% over last year after the sales figures had been growing significantly over the three years prior to 2009. Not a major indicator by any means but more anecdotal evidence at least.

Thralen