[energyhoggin]

Im guessing at or around 2020

[Daniel_Plainview]

If you're referring to conventional crude oil, then PO has already happened (or will be happening very shortly).

[JohnnyMac]

May 2005

[eastbay]

.... old news. Nearly five years ago.

[mos6507]

According to my definition, which is for everyone to throw in the towel and concede that we are post peak because we have sustained high oil prices and sustained production declines, I'd say 2020. That is factoring in a prolonged (permanent?) global depression in which a combination of dollar devaluation and high energy prices act as a form of unintentional rationing. It also factors in some belated efforts at efficiency gains and renewables, which thanks to climategate, are probably going to be much more modest than they would otherwise have been.

[Gerben]

It's already 'hitting', but I have no idea where future historians will place the peak. I think it's likely that for conventional oil (the stuff that's actually oil and not some goo that can be turned into it if you add alot of energy) it already happened. More importantly: we're already past the point where the growth in oil production can keep up with demand. High oil prices triggered (although it isn't the root cause of) the current recession and I don't see the world return to economic growth unless it coincides with a reduced dependance on oil.

[yesplease]

IMO it's been a bumpy plateau since ~1980.

[MonteQuest]

Depends upon what you mean by "hit."

If you mean when will it impact us...when we see a major economic collapse, small recovery, collapse. then repeat as necessary until no recovery.

If you mean, when will global oil production peak, conventional 2005, all liquids may be here already.

[dsula]

there won't be future historians. Oil depletion is only one manifestation of over population, overshoot, and the eventual end of society as we know it. Analytic history will no longer be a serious endeavor. There will only be before and after the Fall.

I'm looking forward to that, sitting in front of the chimney fire, grand-children around me. "Grandpa, tell us about the time when there were cars." As opposed to me, when I was a kid asking my grandpa. "tell me about the time when there were no cars"

[mcgowanjm]

Depends upon what you mean by "hit."

If you mean when will it impact us...when we see a major economic collapse, small recovery, collapse. then repeat as necessary until no recovery.

If you mean, when will global oil production peak, conventional 2005, all liquids may be here already.

There has been no recovery. Xmas spending is down 20%.

Nothing about Dubai has gotten better. The Ukraine is selling
ALL of it's grain. Famine by March, preceded by NatGas shut off
New Years.

And with Dubai, we're now gonna get Holiday Black Swans:

Christmas Eve, a Eastern European nation defaults. Maybe one
of the PIIGS.

And if we make it to April, watch Tax Revenue take a hit,
even over 2008:

gathering momentum in 2010.

1. Millions of productive citizens will opt out, voluntarily or involuntarily. Millions of small business owners will get tired of paying taxes so thousands of Federal bureaucrats can "earn" $170,000 a year (and pile up benefits the private sector can only dream about) and make sure Goldman Sachs employees (the "doing God's work" CEO is only worth $250 million, poor guy) can divvy up $16 billion in ill-gotten gains. Ch Hughes Smith oftwominds

[TheDude]

IMO it's been a bumpy plateau since ~1980.

What are you spreading on that toast? The production profile's about as plateau shaped as an escalator.

[mos6507]

Peak oil was around 2006-8, Started hitting end 2008

And what of the role of oil speculators?

[smiley]

Peak oil was around 2006-8, Started hitting end 2008

And what of the role of oil speculators?

Which speculators? Last time when the oil prices were at $70 (2007) the OPEC, IEA and EIA were putting the blame firmly on speculation. We're now in the worst economic crisis of the past 40 years and prices still haven't come down to $15 (inflation adjusted price during the height dotcom crisis (1998).

And you would be hard pressed to argue that the market is flooded with speculators now.

Factoring out the ups and downs caused by the economic climate the prices now show a consistent picture of prices being a factor higher than a decade ago. That is something completely different than a speculative runup.

The role off speculation has been grossly overstated and the runup in prices is real.

[davep]

Peak oil was around 2006-8, Started hitting end 2008

And what of the role of oil speculators?

Which speculators? Last time when the oil prices were at $70 (2007) the OPEC, IEA and EIA were putting the blame firmly on speculation. We're now in the worst economic crisis of the past 40 years and prices still haven't come down to $15 (inflation adjusted price during the height dotcom crisis (1998).

And you would be hard pressed to argue that the market is flooded with speculators now.

Factoring out the ups and downs caused by the economic climate the prices now show a consistent picture of prices being a factor higher than a decade ago. That is something completely different than a speculative runup.

The role off speculation has been grossly overstated and the runup in prices is real.

Yet crude stocks are higher than they have been for a long time. Not all money goes to gold when times are tough.

[MonteQuest]

Peak oil was around 2006-8, Started hitting end 2008

And what of the role of oil speculators?

Well, in the end, you could say it is just another part of peak oil in a growth based world.

[diemos]

As Madge used to say, "You're soaking in it."