[mike3]

Hi. Take a read of this:
link

The Peak Oil Crisis: China in 2010 By Tom Whipple
Wed, 2 Dec 2009:
It is looking like the course of China's economy will have a lot more to do with your life and lifestyle over the next year or so than you had ever imagined possible. The logic behind this assertion is simple.
The U.S. and for that matter the rest of the OECD economies seem unlikely to be doing much growing in the near future. ...

I left some comments down there, too.

[americandream]

6 likely prognostications on the heels of China's over production:
Deflation.
Wholesale flight of all manufacturing into the Chinese deflationary blackhole.

Rise of casualised, non-productive employment (eg: filling potholes) in economies who have lost jobs to China.

Increasingly fabulously rich earners of Chinese dividend income who will dominate Western political circles and media ownership.

Rise of capital poor class of consuming drones.

Apathy

Hi. Take a read of this: link I left some comments down there, too.

[Revi]

Excellent article. I think we have to think about the unthinkable. Peak oil is really here now. The days of $3 oil may be over. I was thinking it was over as I saw all these guys with full sized pickups driving around with either nothing in the back or a snowmobile. What are those guys going to do when it costs more to move their vehicles than it does to eat? Which are we going to choose?

It's going to be choosing time soon. Eat or drive...

[mike3]

6 likely prognostications on the heels of China's over production:
Deflation.
Wholesale flight of all manufacturing into the Chinese deflationary blackhole.
Rise of casualised, non-productive employment (eg: filling potholes) in economies who have lost jobs to China.
Increasingly fabulously rich earners of Chinese dividend income who will dominate Western political circles and media ownership.
Rise of capital poor class of consuming drones.
Apathy

What happens once there's no more oil and gas to fuel all that production? I've heard that China's oil demand is growing... in a time when oil is peaking, or has already peaked and started dropping... Mmmm....... how long will it be before they're in the same boat as the USA... not enough fuel to fuel things that are blown way past their proper bounds...

[americandream]

The crunch will come when the owners of capital eventually realise that there is no more surplus from which to accumulate. For the time being, the growth frenzy is being sustained by:

1 The unclear nature of global energy reserves and how we use the current stock of energy. Myths abound and will only be undone when oil, the elephant in the room, is clearly and unmistakeably on the decline;

2 Faith in that great white hope, technology and the endless potential beyond planet earth. The former is based on very shaky foundations, premised as it ultmately is, on something for nothing. All it takes is for one irreplaceable element to fail for this house of cards to collapse. The latter, viz, the long term non-viabilty of space travel given the eventual effects of proliferating space junk, is something we have not really considered and has yet to be confronted.

It is at this point that the two conflicting realities of infinite growth and finite limits will intersect and bubble to the surface at which point I suspect that political dialogue will take a U turn away from endless growth towards a steady state economy which will be communistic.

Its hard to predict a timeline simply because there is such little transparency in issues which concern our energy reserves and alternative technoliogies but my guess is that another 5 decades will see these issues finally and fully settled.

What happens once there's no more oil and gas to fuel all that production? I've heard that China's oil demand is growing... in a time when oil is peaking, or has already peaked and started dropping... Mmmm....... how long will it be before they're in the same boat as the USA... not enough fuel to fuel things that are blown way past their proper bounds...

[mike3]

Thanks for the response.