[eXpat]

Option ARMs, unemployment rising, record levels of debt in US, UK and several EU countries, banks closing down, etc.
That was 2009. When do you think the second wave will hit? and why?.

[eXpat]

My pick is, by the way, Q3 2010, the reason is that the only "solution" from TPTB has been to make the printing machines work overtime, and I can´t really see the same trick working for another year.

[Tanada]

I picked Q2 2010 because I don't think they can keep printing money and they are going to HAVE to raise interest rates or end up with the Weimer style hyper inflation. As soon as they do that the Commercial real estate bubble is going to pop, and that will be the second major shoe kicking the economy down the basement stars. They want to keep things going until after November 2010 for political reasons but I don't think they can hold it together for another 11 months.

[careinke]

They want to keep things going until after November 2010 for political reasons but I don't think they can hold it together for another 11 months.

I chose 1st Quarter 2011 because I think they will be able to hold on till then.

[Gerben]

I picked Q1 2011 because a lot of governments in Europe have picked that date for budget cuts in an attempt to get their budgets more balanced again.

[the48thronin]

I picked q2 2010 bcause by then everyone will see that all pretended growth in retail sales are tied to fuel price increases and food price increases... The number of retailers closing after the numbers for q4 2009 come out will tel you how soon the comercial crisis becomes unmanagable!

[leaflight]

I picked 1Q because , 3/4Q pay or less from unemployment benefits from the fresh hundreds of thousands of unemployed the economy will feel, and some one said around 7,000 a week and increasing are coming at the end of their unemployment benefits already so the economies will feel that to.


Also with bankruptcies up 100% since 2007 the economies will feel that to.

All that's coming down in the next four months I think will be at least a severe wave of economic crisis, to say the least.

[carbon14]

what influenced my decision was this LEAP 2020 article

LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009 (1), and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures.

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-40-is-ava ... a4093.html

I think there is a desperate attempt to hold current system together but the Party is defintely over.

I like Agroforestry as an sustainable alternative. With all that CO2 in the atmosphere plants will love it.....

[pedalling_faster]

i think the question is a little im-precise - because it implies that the first wave ended.

which it never did. for example, a graph of mortgage delinquencies -

http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-fil ... C527F8.jpg

the delinquency rate is considerably higher now than in September October 2008 and March 2009, the 2 times when the equity markets were crashing and people were asking, "is this the second Great Depression".

so, for example, Obama gave people money to buy cars and ... they bought cars ! with a corresponding uptick in GNP numbers.

if, by "second wave", you mean, when will be people be going, "Oh, SHiT !" ... well there's a lot of people saying that now (10% official unemployment), it's just that they aren't on CNBC very often.

if, by "second wave", you mean, when will be people be saying, "Oh, DOUBLE SHiT !!!" - in the mainstream media, i don't know. when it shows up on the teleprompter, i guess.

[Cloud9]

I picked 2011 because of this:


http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/ ... chart.html

[gt1370a]

I picked 2011 because of this:


http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/ ... chart.html

Did you hear about Bernanke recently refinancing out of an option ARM tied to LIBOR into a fixed rate? What does that indicate he thinks about the future of interest rates? And what impact would that have on the chart of option ARMS you linked to?

[mcgowanjm]

Option ARMs, unemployment rising, record levels of debt in US, UK and several EU countries, banks closing down, etc.
That was 2009. When do you think the second wave will hit? and why?.

I stated that Xmas Day 2007 right after the presents were
unwrapped and everyone figures out how they're gonna
pay 'em off.

Now it's Xmas Day 2009 and everyone's wondering about
the nice meal and home and how they're gonna pay 'em
off.

And Xmas Eve will see a Black Swan 'Dubai' News Event.

Oh, and 30% of Illinois corn is still in the field and under snow.

Lots of corn still in fields as snow looms - Galesburg, IL - The ...
Dec 2, 2009 ... fourth of the Illinois corn crop remains in the fields with a chance of snow ... so of 800 acres of corn on his farm about 30 miles north of Springfield. ... Original content available for non-commercial use under a ...
http://www.galesburg.com/.../Lots-of-co ... snow-looms -

Winter's here, yet Illinois corn harvest drags on - December 04 ...
Dec 4, 2009 ... Winter's here, yet Illinois corn harvest drags on - December 04 ... The country's long, slow corn harvest season - expected to be the second largest U.S. crop ever ... The USDA still expects a 12.9 billion-bushel crop, ...
http://www.ktuu.com/Global/story.asp?S=11619836 -

Cognitive Dissonance anyone

And what impact would that have on the chart of option ARMS you linked to?

OptionArms should've been illegal. The 'option' was how
little do you want to pay each month. After reset(now-2011) the rate
doubles, while the 'renter' is underwater. WalkAway is the
only answer.

[hillsidedigger]

The worldwide stimulus efforts should allow a mini-boom which will last thru 2010 and 2011 with the bottom to fall out during 2012.

[eXpat]

i think the question is a little im-precise - because it implies that the first wave ended.

which it never did. for example, a graph of mortgage delinquencies -

http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-fil ... C527F8.jpg

the delinquency rate is considerably higher now than in September October 2008 and March 2009, the 2 times when the equity markets were crashing and people were asking, "is this the second Great Depression".

so, for example, Obama gave people money to buy cars and ... they bought cars ! with a corresponding uptick in GNP numbers.

if, by "second wave", you mean, when will be people be going, "Oh, SHiT !" ... well there's a lot of people saying that now (10% official unemployment), it's just that they aren't on CNBC very often.

if, by "second wave", you mean, when will be people be saying, "Oh, DOUBLE SHiT !!!" - in the mainstream media, i don't know. when it shows up on the teleprompter, i guess.

Of course, we are essentially in the same situation than before, and this is the same crisis, TBTP have merely succeeded in buying some more time with more currency emission and an increase of debt everywhere. I was thinking more in the lines of the moment that mainstream media and even J6P recognizes the situation we are in, although is true as well, that there are peaks of crisis, in 2008 for instance the situation was really dire, US and UK banking systems were in the verge of collapse, oil price was breaking new records and the TED spread was showing that we banking system was near the point of breakdown.

[AirlinePilot]

I think we make it to the second quarter, possibly the third. At some point soon, the obvious magnitude of Government debt, bond market pressures, and the fiasco that is TARP/TALF/PPIP bailout/too big to fail will come home to roost. The remedy of a controled capital system reset will be overcome by the math at hand.

I will be very very surprised if they can put off the failures, bankruptcies and high interest rates much beyond that. I believe that this next crisis will be an order of magnitude larger than what we went through last fall. The longer we prop everyone and everything up with printed or debt generated money the bigger the crisis/collapse will be.

[mcgowanjm]

The worldwide stimulus efforts should allow a mini-boom which will last thru 2010 and 2011 with the bottom to fall out during 2012.

The 'worldwide stimulus efforts' have been all and only to shore
up the banking system-which is insolvent. And now a Zombie.

A Shot Gun blast to the head is now needed for them.

For us This year, America can look for a nice lump of coal in its Christmas stocking. That lump will be called "the recovery." This recovery consists of a massive self-deception, made up of accounting tricks and falsified statistics, with a sugar-coating on top of sheer disbelief that the outcome could be anything but a particular happy ending -- namely, the continued levitation of the unsustainable.

A debt saturated society is thus faced with two conundrums as time progresses.

1) The ability to service the debt plus interest declines steadily over time leading to cash flow problems.

2) The usefulness of that extra dollar of debt also steadily declines. Thus we are moving towards a point where for every dollar borrowed we have a contraction (I was going to use that ghastly word 'negative growth' but decided against it) due to debt saturation.

Hence, the marginal cost of taking on one more dollar of debt will become detrimental to society as a whole, as the marginal benefit of that one more dollar is negative. This is precisely how societies decline and as in our present debt based monetary system, the principal must be paid with interest by society as a whole in one form or the other.

BTW-RR Loadings are still dropping from 2007.
Sometime before the last college football game in January.

[carbon14]

Here's another cheery article but I think the cascade of collapse (Tainter is spot on) is:
financial
commercial
political
Cultural
Back to savage tribes but at least they didn't have NWO muppets trying to consolidate global power, debt based money to perpetuate their control, consumer/tech crap etc.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2 ... mmies.html

*****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies*****
by Eric deCarbonnel

If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.

[mcgowanjm]

Here's another cheery article but I think the cascade of collapse (Tainter is spot on) is:
financial
commercial
political
Cultural
Back to savage tribes but at least they didn't have NWO muppets trying to consolidate global power, debt based money to perpetuate their control, consumer/tech crap etc.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2 ... mmies.html

*****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies*****
by Eric deCarbonnel

If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.

^
^
Excellent. And the take away- The USDA is desperate to
keep saying the 2009/10 Harvest will be the second largest.

Illinois has 30% of it's corn in the field. Covered with snow.

Isn't it incredible how China never have so much as even a mini crop wobble, let alone a disaster?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 923 AM CST MON DEC 21 2009 ...STRONG WINTER STORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK... .A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

Cattle stress in winter storm: A powerful storm is predicted this week that will bring blustery winds, rain and snow to cattle in Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas. Precipitation will begin as a rain-snow mix tomorrow night on the High Plains converting to all snow Wednesday. Six to eight inches of snow is predicted from northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas into Nebraska.

[deMolay]

Still problems. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=16620

[Oakley]

If you think that bad loans are a serious problem at banks, then you miss the elephant in the room according to this author.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... nd-mr.html

In part

The persistent notion that there's only $1-2 trillion in losses remaining in the banking system, as some people conclude from what Roubini and others may have stated, is false; that would be peanuts. The Federal Reserve printed $1.55 trillion to buy up toxic MBS plus Treasury paper. But the problem has not been cured, in particular: most of the toxic debt still remains hidden through the application of shady accounting practices. There is no solution in sight in the current political paradigm.

Think about it this way: the US government has implicitly and explicitly guaranteed, loaned, subsidized and given away about $12.8 trillion to banks while these banks have only $10 trillion or so in real assets. Why is the government giving so much assistance, a sum far greater then all assets combined of the US banking system?

Simple really, the derivatives aka bets are far larger than global GDP, estimated to be between $500 trillion and $1,5 quadrillion. JP Morgan alone holds $90 trillion or so in derivatives while the entire US GDP per annum is no more than one-sixth of that, at $14-odd trillion.

So those bets have gone bad and gone wrong and they have been kept hidden in the broom cupboard thanks to creative fictional accounting practices, in level 3 assets on bank balance sheets, and in off balance sheet items.

The losses are real, the bets went bad, and Washington is attempting a show of CONfidence to prevent a systemic collapse. But when Mr. Market calls the government's bluff, and he will, then people will realize the US Government is the naked emperor, with no money to back up those guarantees for failed and long dead enterprises. MORE

The author believes the result will be massive deflation starting sometime in 2010.

If gold gets up to $1,800 - $2,000 by October, 2010, then my own view is that will be an indication of a top in the flight out of the dollar. I expect gold to get back to under $300 by 2015.

Have you seen this M3 money supply rate of change chart?

http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

It sure looks like the money supply is not keeping up with past growth rates and it is money supply expansion and contraction that drive prices first up and then down.

Interesting times.