[pup55]

I can hardly believe that a year has passed and it is time to start the 2010 PO.com oil price challenge.

The rules this year will be the same as before.
All participants will guess the high, low, and close of the Nymex Futures Contract #1 price as posted by the EIA in this spreadsheet: One forecast per participant. You can change it if you want up until the deadline.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/PET_PRI_FUT_S1_D.xls

Results will be tabulated by me, and kept around for an entire year to to see who was the best. Periodic updates will be made to the standings just to see how we are doing.

The winner of the contest will receive the love, respect and admiration of the PO.com community, which is priceless in and of itself. Nothing bad will happen to everyone else. Winners will be announced for who is closest to the high for the year, the low, and closest at the close, and of course the overall winner which will be a combination of all three, as we have done in the past.

Please try to have your guesses in by January 7th, which gives you a week after New Year.

Also, since we use this thread to capture predictions that are found in the media by real energy analysts and others, please feel free to post any that you might see. We have a lot of fun with this trying to expose the so-called "experts" by documenting their predictions.

Also, if you feel like it, and have some logic or other explanation as to how you arrived at your forecast, please feel free to embellish.

I will be the judge, and I am a laid back judge and rule changes may be announced as we go. Late entries will be received with reluctance, after deducting an appropriate amount of love and respect.

Although there is no prize awarded other than the aforementioned love and respect, side bets are encouraged. Also, past rankings in this thread may be used to settle flame wars and that kind of thing, so by all means, forecast with care because your whole social status in our little community might be affected by a bizarre forecast....then again it might be confirmed, I don't know.

Let the fun begin! Happy Holidays!

[TreeFarmer]

I can't open the spreadsheet so I'll post my predictions here;

High $88
Low $38
Close $63

TF

[eXpat]

High $100
Low $70
Close $90

[alpha480v]

High $125
Low $ 75
Close $99

[jdmartin]

High: 118
Low: 70
Close: 90

[SeaGypsy]

High $92
Low $68
Close $87

Based on current USD$ values. This year will test price control mechanisms like no other has. There is a strong possibility of US inflation/ hence my base on today's dollar values.
Given how the price bounced in 09 tankers will sit out a dip below $70; above $90 capped wells will open. My logic for what it's worth!

[Hawkcreek]

High - $168
Low - $69
Close - $119

[Armageddon]

High - $ 219.00
Low - current ( $75.00 ish )
Close - $ 201.00


The attacking of Iran by Israel will trigger this.

[copious.abundance]

High: $84
Low: $64
Close: $68

[IslandCrow]

Looking a back to exclude a supper spike, as in 2008, I find that in 2006 the high was about 40% greater than the low, in 2007 it was 60%, and so far this year about 80%. For my guess I will assume that this high rate of volutility continues in the market, which helps fix the highs and lows but does not help determine the end point so that is just a wag

Low: 70
High: 140
End: 105

[Keith_McClary]

Isn't PO about production?

I predict average daily production for 2010:

All liquids 83.5 mb/day
Conventional crude 71.3 mb/day

[wisconsin_cur]

High: 138.95
Low: 32.16

Close: 55.12

I think this gets harder with every passing year. Just when Scotty says, "She can't take much more Captain!" she is able to take more... but which moving part will break first?

I am, essentially betting on volatility. Geopolitical? Monetary? Structural? Hard to say, it could be any or all. Of course it could be none in which case we might see increasing demand of a recovery drive up the price; inflicting what I guess would be called fiscal volatility.

I do not think we will break through the 2008 high only because the economy is in rougher shape and people have learned (too little too late but they have learned) how to be a little more elastic in their oil usage. I am not just talking about the USA but globally. Of course for some authoritarian regimes being flexible means some parties go with out. Even it the Straits of Hormuz close, I do not think we can cross the old barrier until the dollar goes into it final dive... which I do not think will be this year.

The hight price will agitate other problems, leading, again, to a dive in prices. Will it really go back down to 32? I have a hard time believing it but I always seem to miss more on my low than my high (but I am almost always off on my close) so I add a tenner just to correct for what has, over the years, appeared to be a problem of mine.

Close always seems to be a timing issue. When will we hit the high or the low and in what direction will we be moving come 12/31/10. It is almost a second order estimate from our estimates regarding the highs and the lows.

The only other thing I have to add is some of the analysts I listen to are looking to see a shift in the final price to the consumer of gasoline and diesel not directly tied to the price of a barrel of crude. This seems to be based on the idea that refiners are getting squeezed and 2010 will see some changes in how much is being refined, by whom and where. So even if crude prices stay the same we could see .50 or .75 per gallon price increase in final product.

Interesting times boys and girls; interesting times.

Keep your head clear and your eyes open.

[Cog]

High $110
Low $74
Close $90

I'm sort of betting that this is the year we start seeing global depletion start to show itself. Recession or not.

[davep]

High $140
Low $60
Close $120

[mcgowanjm]

High $78.51
Low $27.25
Close $27.95

The individual parts are perfect, but their interaction is somehow not. As the Baltic Dry Index drops below 880.

[2cher]

High $136.00
Low $72.00
Close $123.00

I am sure that my prediction is off by a good margin and is much higher than the actual price index that crude will achieve. On the other hand, my crystal ball is predicting an increase in inflation towards the end of the third quarter which will push all commodities up about 57% (in profit making, before the the out of control inflation of 2011-2012) so I am also calling for ~1750 gold by the end of the year.

I am also seeing several major announcements coming towards the third quarter regarding known outputs of several of the larger fields which will induce panic from most speculators, this could also lead to a much higher oil prices than even what I have predicted... perhaps even testing the 170 range

[TheDude]

High $120
Low $45
Close $65

Not much oil coming online this year. We'll burn through spare capacity in short order, and then it'll be 2007 all over again.

Oil price might rise "reasonably" - Saudi king in paper

RIYADH (Reuters) - Oil prices are stabilising and might even rise "reasonably," Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah was quoted as saying by a Kuwaiti newspaper.

The top OPEC oil exporter reiterated it saw a fair oil price between $75 and $80 per barrel, King Abdullah told the daily al-Seyassah in an interview.

"We expected at the start of the year oil prices between $75 and $80 a barrel, this is a fair price...Oil prices are heading towards stability and might rise reasonably," he said.

[Gerben]

High: 101
Low: 65
Close: 78

[pablonite]

High: 169
Low: 69
Close:113

[AlexdeLarge]

High $88
Low $35
Close $40